Premier League, Friday 8:00pm
These two teams met at Craven Cottage on January 12, with Fulham coming out on top in a 2-1 victory.
It was the first time in almost 17 years that they had beaten their West London rivals and it was a result which piled the pressure on Chelsea boss Graham Potter.
Potter has since eased that pressure with a 1-0 home win over Crystal Palace and a goalless draw at Liverpool.
Looking back at last month, Fulham were good value for their win at Craven Cottage, although the second-half dismissal of Joao Felix did not help Potter’s cause. Felix will miss Friday’s game through suspension after his moment of madness on his debut.
Chelsea had more possession and won the shot count 20-8, but Fulham looked a threat and won the game with goals from Willian and Carlos Vinicius.
Potter’s men will not be as hospitable at the Bridge, though, and their defensive record shows why. They have conceded just seven goals at home and have won to nil against Palace, Bournemouth and Wolves.
Fulham might suggest they are a cut above that trio, but they have a lower xG (1.29) than Palace away from home and only Villa have a lower xG away in the top half of the Premier League table.
Marco Silva’s men do take their chances, though, and have 14 goals away from home and have won at Leeds, Leicester and Crystal Palace in recent months. But they have conceded 14 too and their xGA sees them ranked as the eighth worst in the league.
It’s the xG modelling that suggests Silva’s men may just be punching above their weight and Chelsea, looking for revenge, might just be the side to cut them down to size.
Goalscoring has been Chelsea’s problem under Potter. Just 13 home goals is not good enough for the hosts and the arrivals of Felix and Mykhailo Mudryk will try and address that balance.
That may take some time and it already looks like Potter will have to look to next season to launch a charge for the top four.
Still, Chelsea possess enough attacking talent to get past Fulham. They have done so 2-0 against their rivals in the last three meetings at Stamford Bridge.
They have also recorded back-to-back clean sheets, while Fulham have failed to score in their last two league games – losing 1-0 against Newcastle and Spurs. And it’s that recent form that points towards a hard-fought home win.
Key stats
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in seven of Chelsea’s last eight PL games
- Chelsea have won the last three home PL meetings with Fulham 2-0
- Chelsea have lost seven of their last 12 games in all competitions
- Fulham have only drawn once away from home in the PL this season
- Nobody has scored less than Chelsea at home (13) in the top half of the PL table
- Only Newcastle and Man Utd have conceded less goals at home than Chelsea (seven)
