Manchester City head south to Brighton on Wednesday with the Premier League title already in the bag, while the Seagulls need a point to secure Europa League football.
Suggested bets
- Brighton 1-1 Man City
- Brighton vs Man City to draw
- Brighton vs Man City BTTS, yes
Key Stats
- Manchester City have won their last 12 PL matches
- Manchester City have won 11 of their last 12 matches against Brighton in all competitions
- Manchester City have been winning at both half-time and full-time in nine of their last 11 matches against Brighton in all competitions
- Manchester City have scored in each of their last 15 PL games
- Brighton have won three of their last four home PL games
- Brighton have scored in their last 14 PL games
Brighton vs Manchester City – Verdict
Pep Guardiola rang the changes on Sunday as City saw off Chelsea 1-0 amid their title celebrations at The Etihad.
Guardiola seems to have settled on his trusted first XI after naming the same side in the two-legged Champions League semi-final vs Real Madrid.
He was more than happy to almost name an entirely different XI and his side still waltzed past Chelsea – and they will likely field another different side on the south coast.
City still have Brentford to face on the final day before they will start thinking about their June 3 FA Cup final date with Manchester United. But while City’s Champions League final team picks itself, Guardiola could rotate his side at Wembley.
Stefan Ortega has been the FA Cup goalkeeper, while Riyad Mahrez, Phil Foden, Aymeric Laporte and Julian Alvarez have featured in cup games and will be hoping to get a chance to impress sufficiently enough to secure a place in the FA Cup final team.
WIth that in mind, City’s players are still playing for places, while Brighton know a point will see them into the Europa League next season.
City are 3/4 favourites, but had they needed to win we might have expected them to be 1/3 shots.
Brighton, who have had a season to remember, are 3/1 – and with 10 home wins from 18 on the face of it they look decent value.
But City, regardless of their personnel, are a tough ask for any team. Guardiola’s men will play the same way regardless of the starters and if they are in trouble then you can expect the cavalry to come off the bench.
That said, with some big games looming, City might just take their eye off the ball away from home. They have lost three and drawn three away from home, but they haven’t dropped points in the Premier League since a draw with Nottingham Forest in February.
Brighton are the most similar side to City in the country in respect of their short-passing, possession-based style – and these two might just cancel each other out.
Brighton know a point is good enough and will not be busting a gut to win the game if it is all square in the second half. City’s stars, meanwhile, will probably be of the mindset that avoiding defeat will be better for their FA Cup final prospects than going all out for a win and risk losing.
Only last month Guardiola labelled Brighton the best team in the “build-up” phase and so that will not have been missed by City’s fringe players.
They will be desperate to make their mark, but it may just be that they put in a solid rather than spectacular showing and a draw could play out.
