Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Betting Tips 9/29/2024

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The over/under line for Sunday’s Phillies vs. Nationals matchup is at 7.5 runs, with the Phillies being favored on the money line (-179). Washington comes in with a money line payout of +150 and will be looking to extend their two-game winning streak. This game is being played at Nationals Park in Washington, and first pitch is set for 3:05 PM ET.

Philadelphia will be sending Aaron Nola to the mound, and they are 94-67 this season. Washington is 71-90 and will have Jake Irvin starting on Sunday. MASN will be televising this NL East matchup.

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Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats

• Across their last five road games, the Phillies are 1-4. This includes going 1-4 vs. the runline.
• On the opposing side, the Nationals have a 1-4 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
• Over their last ten games, the Phillies have a 4-6 straight-up record when playing as the favorite, along with a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
• When playing as the underdog, the Nationals have gone 5-5 against the runline, with a straight-up record of 6-4 over their last ten games.

Washington picked up a 6-3 win over the Phillies in the most recent game of this series. The Nationals had a two-run lead going into the 8th inning and the Phillies could only muster one run in the 9th. Heading into the game, the Nationals were at +173 on the money line.

MacKenzie Gore pitched well for the Nationals in this one, going six innings and striking out nine without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Jose A. Ferrer closed things out. Zack Wheeler had a rough outing for the Phillies, giving up two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work.

James Wood and Joey Gallo each homered for the Nationals, while Keibert Ruiz went 2/4 with an RBI. Dylan Crews also had a two-hit game at the plate.

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

With an overall record of 94-67, the Phillies lead the NL East by five games over the Braves. The Phillies have dropped two straight games, and this has come as part of a stretch where they are just 3-7 across their last 10. In the division, they are 28-23 this season.

At home, the Phillies have gone 54-27, and they are an even 40-40 on the road. As the favorite, the Phillies are 81-49 this season, and they are 13-18 when listed as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Phillies are 27-18-7 and are favored in this one as the road favorite.

When the Phillies are on the road, they have been a good bet on the run line, going 40-40. However, they have failed to cover in four straight road games. As the favorite, they are just 61-69 on the run line, but they are 16-15 as the underdog. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.9, while it is -3.9 in losing games.

The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road against the Washington Nationals today, with the over/under line set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average in Phillies games this season is 9.0, and their over/under record is 77-75. The average over/under line in their games is 8 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 15-16. Overall, 72.0% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, and the over has hit in their last four games.

Aaron Nola will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win vs. the Cubs. In that start, he went six innings and gave up two earned runs. Looking back over his last four outings, Nola has finished with a no-decision, loss, and then a loss before getting the win vs. the Cubs. Nola’s record for the season is 13-8, and his ERA is 3.52. For the year, he has one complete game shutout and 20 quality starts. Nola’s WHIP for the season is 1.18, and opponents are batting .238 vs. Nola this year.

So far this season, the Phillies are one of the league’s top offensive teams, averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 5th in the MLB. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per game. Overall, they are 4th in team batting average and 7th in home runs. Philadelphia also does a good job of avoiding strikeouts and are 7th in the league in walks.

Over the past six games, Kyle Schwarber has gone just 4/23 for the Phillies, but two of his hits have left the yard. Nick Castellanos has been hot of late, going 10/20 in his last six games and is currently on a nine-game hitting streak. For the season, Schwarber’s 38 homers are 6th in the league, and his 102 RBIs are 10th in the MLB.

Washington is 71-90 overall this season, and they are 4th in the NL East, 23 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. The Nationals have an overall division record of 25-26 coming into today’s game. The Nationals have picked up two straight wins, and these two wins have come in the first two games of this series vs. the Phillies.

At home, the Nationals are 38-42 this season, and they are 33-48 on the road. As the underdog, the Nationals are 56-77 this season and 15-13 when favored. Washington’s overall series record is 19-25-6, and they have dropped three straight series.

Washington has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 89-72 overall and 43-37 at home. They have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 76-57, compared to 13-15 as the favorite. Their average run margin for the season is -0.6, but it jumps to +3.4 in wins and -3.8 in losses.

The Washington Nationals have an over/under record of 76-79 this season, with an average combined run average of 8.8 runs per game. Their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 17-12, and the over has hit in three straight games for the Nationals. Overall, 79.5% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs.

Jake Irvin will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Cubs, as he gets the start for the Nationals today. Against the Cubs, he gave up five earned runs in just four innings of work. Looking back across his last four starts, Irvin has finished with a loss in two of them and a no-decision in one. His record for the season is 10-13, and he has an ERA of 4.22. Opponents have hit .238 off Irvin this season, and his WHIP is 1.18. This year, he has made 32 starts, and his ERA at home is 5.04 compared to 4.43 on the road.

Washington’s offense is averaging just 4.1 runs per game this season, which is 25th in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and have a collective batting average of just .243. However, they have been good at avoiding strikeouts, and their team on-base percentage of .309 is 14th in the league.

Luis García Jr. and CJ Abrams have been the team’s top power threats this season, with 17 and 20 homers, respectively. Garcia Jr. comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak and is batting .281 for the season. Joey Gallo and James Wood have also been swinging the bat well of late, with Gallo having three homers in his last eight games and Wood going 10/33 in his last nine games.

Our predicted score for this one is a 5-4 win for the Nationals, and with them having a money line of +150, that is the way we recommend playing this one. Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Jake Irvin going five innings and finishing with five strikeouts.

For Aaron Nola, our projections have him finishing with six strikeouts and going 6.1 innings. However, we have him finishing with a loss, and with the payout for a Phillies win sitting at -179, we would look to stay away from that.

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips

• We like the Nationals on the moneyline (+150)
• On the run line we like Nationals (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

Washington Nationals Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report