Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City Royals Prediction & Betting Tips 9/28/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City Royals Preview

From Truist Park in Atlanta, we have the Royals and Braves facing off in an interleague matchup. First pitch is at 7:20 PM ET, and the forecast calls for broken clouds and temperatures in the low to mid-70s.

The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs, and the Braves are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -154. The Royals have a money line payout of +129, and today’s pitching matchup features Seth Lugo for the Royals and Reynaldo Lopez for the Braves. Lopez and the Braves will be looking to extend a four-game winning streak, while the Royals are 85-75 and 3rd in the AL Central. The under is 7-5 in Lopez’s last 12 starts.

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Atlanta Braves vs. Kansas City Royals Trends and Key Stats

• Over the course of their previous five away games, the Royals have recorded a 3-2 record, with a 2-3 performance on the runline.
• On the opposing side, the Braves have a 4-1 (SU) record, along with a 3-2 record in their last five home contests.
• The Braves have a straight-up record of 7-3 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
• When playing as the underdog, the Royals have won 2-8 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 3-7 against the runline.

The most recent game o of this Braves vs Royals series came right down to the end, as the Royals rallied late but still fell short with the Braves winning 3-2 at home. Heading into the game, the Braves were favored at -189 on the money line.

Max Fried pitched well for the Braves in this one, going 8 2/3 innings and striking out nine without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Raisel Iglesias closed things out. Brady Singer had a decent outing for the Royals, giving up two earned runs in six innings of work.

Sean Murphy provided the big hit for the Braves, as he homered in the second inning and finished with two RBIs. Michael Massey had a two-hit game for the Royals.

Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Kansas City is 85-75 overall and trails the Guardians by seven games in the AL Central. This season, they have gone 33-19 in divisional games. The Royals are on the road today, and they are 40-39 on the road compared to 45-36 at home.

So far, the Royals have gone 50-31 as the favorite and 35-44 as the underdog. They have dropped three straight games as the underdog, and they are 2-2 in their last four series. Kansas City is just 3-7 over their last 10 games and lost the series opener vs. the Braves.

The Royals have been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 87-73 overall. They have been slightly better on the road, where they are 44-35 against the run line. They have been a better bet as an underdog, going 46-33 against the run line in those games. They have a run differential of +0.6 runs per game this season.

The Royals have played in 130 games with over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, which is 81.2% of their games this season. Their games have averaged 8.6 runs per game, and their over/under record is 69-86 overall. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, the Royals have gone under the total 16 times and over the total just four times.

Seth Lugo will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing as he gets the start for the Royals today. Against the Giants on September 22nd, he took the loss, giving up two earned runs in seven innings of work. Looking at his overall numbers, Lugo has made 32 starts and has a record of 16-9. His ERA for the season is 3.03, along with a WHIP of 1.09. Lugo has one complete game and 22 quality starts this year. Per nine innings, he is averaging 7.83 strikeouts and just 2.07 walks. For the season, Lugo has allowed 16 homers.

So far this season, the Royals are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 13th in the league. They have been even better at home, putting up an average of 4.8 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .249, which is 7th in the league, and have the 2nd fewest strikeouts in the league. Kansas City’s team on-base percentage is just 15th in the league, and they are also near the bottom of the league in walks.

Bobby Witt Jr. comes into the game with a team-high 32 home runs and is batting .332 overall. Salvador Perez is also having a strong season at the plate, hitting .271 with 27 homers. Over his last five games, Hunter Renfroe has gone just 2/14 with one home run.

With an overall record of 87-71, the Braves are 3rd in the NL East, six games behind the Phillies for the division lead. The Braves have won four straight games, and they will look to keep it going today at home vs. the Royals. Atlanta took the first game of the series, putting their overall series record at 29-17-7. This also includes a two-game road series winning streak.

At home, the Braves are 44-33 this year compared to a 43-38 mark on the road. Atlanta has been the favorite in most of their games, putting together a record of 74-53 as the favorite. As the underdog, the Braves are 13-18 this year. Their overall record is 6-4 over their last 10 games.

When the Braves are favored, they are 58-69 on the run line, but they are 18-13 as the underdog. Overall, they are 76-82 on the run line, with an average run margin of 0.6 runs per game. In their wins, they are winning by an average of 3.8 runs per game, while in their losses, they are losing by an average of 3.3 runs per game. They are currently on a 2-game run line win streak at home and have a run line record of 33-44 at home and 43-38 on the road.

The Braves have been involved in high-scoring games this season, with their games having an average combined run total of 8.1 runs per game. Overall, the over has hit in 58 of their 94 games this season. When the O/U line has been set at 7.5 runs, the over has gone 13-21 in those games. The over has hit in 72.8% of their games this season, with only 5.7% of their games having lower O/U lines than 7.5 runs. The under has hit in their last two games.

Right-hander Reynaldo López gets the start for the Braves today and comes in with a record of 8-5 and an ERA of 2.03. So far this year, he has made 24 starts, and opponents are batting .219 off him. López has turned in 13 quality starts and is averaging 9.58 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going just one inning and not giving up a run. Before that, he had won two straight starts. López has been much better at home, coming in with a 1.83 ERA compared to 2.12 on the road.

Marcell Ozuna has been a major run producer for the Braves this season, as his 102 RBIs are 11th in the league and the top mark on the team. He has also been a big power threat, as his 39 homers are 5th in the league. Ozuna comes into the game with a batting average of .308. Matt Olson is also a home run threat for the Braves, as his 29 homers are 2nd on the team and 13th in the league. Olson is batting .245 for the season.

Over his last nine games, Michael Harris II has been on fire for the Braves, going 18/40 with five homers and nine RBIs. He has also scored 11 runs over this stretch. As a team, the Braves are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are the league’s 3rd best home run-hitting team.

Our prediction for today’s Royals vs. Braves game is to take the Braves on the money line at -154. We have the Braves winning this one by a score of 6-4. If you’re looking to place a bet on the over/under, we would take the over, as we have the total runs at 10.

Looking at today’s starting pitchers, Reynaldo López is a much better option than Seth Lugo. We have López finishing with seven strikeouts compared to Lugo with five.

Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City Royals Betting Tips

• Take the Braves on the moneyline
• The Braves should also cover at -1.5
• Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over

Atlanta Braves Injury Report

Kansas City Royals Injury Report