Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
At 2:20 PM ET, the Reds and Cubs face off in an NL Central matchup. This one is being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago, and the Reds are looking to snap a four-game losing streak, as they are 76-84 overall. The Cubs are 3rd in the NL Central, and their record of 82-78.</
There does appear to be a chance of rain in Chicago on Saturday, with temperatures expected to be in the mid-60s. The over/under line is currently at 7 runs, and the Cubs are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -129. Kyle Hendricks is starting for the Cubs, while the Reds are going with Rhett Lowder.
Check out BetCoco for Chicago Cubs – Cincinnati Reds odds
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Trends and Key Stats
- The Reds are 1-4 in their five most recent road games, including a 2-3 runline record.
- Conversely, the Cubs have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 2-3 record in their last five home games.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Cubs have a straight-up record of 7-3, while going 5-5 against the runline.
- Looking at the Reds’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 3-7 straight-up and 4-6 vs. the runline.
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Cubs vs Reds series. Chicago went into the matchup as -129 favorites and squeaked out a 1-0 win. The only run of the game came in the 5th inning.
Cincinnati wasted a good outing from Nick Martinez, as he gave up just one run in eight innings of work for the Reds. Jameson Taillon was even better for the Cubs, getting the win after going seven innings and not giving up a run.
Nico Hoerner scored the game’s only run for the Cubs while going 2/3 with a run scored. Jonathan India had a two-hit game for the Reds.
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
Cincinnati is 76-84 overall and is 16 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. The Reds have dropped four straight games, and they are 23-27 against other teams in the division. Yesterday, they lost the series opener vs. the Cubs, who are 10.0 games ahead of them in the division.
At home, the Reds are 39-42 this year, and they are 37-42 on the road. As the underdog, the Reds are 41-50 this year, and they are 35-34 when favored. Cincinnati’s overall series record is 19-29-3, and they are just 3-7 over their last 10 games.
The Reds are 86-74 against the run line this season, and they have been a better bet on the road (48-31) than at home (38-43). They have been an underdog in 91 games, and they have covered the run line in 57 of those contests. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.8, while it is -3.4 in losses.
When the Reds are on the road, the over/under line is usually set higher than 7 runs. In fact, the average over/under line for their games is 9 runs. Their games have gone over the line 73 times and under 80 times this season. However, when the line is set at 7 runs, the record is 2-2-2. The combined run average in Reds games this season is 8.7 runs per game, and their current under streak is at 5 games.
Rhett Lowder is on the mound for the Reds today against the Cubs. Lowder has started 3 games so far this season, and he picked up a win in his last outing, going 5 innings and striking out 4. He took the loss in his 2nd start, giving up 3 runs in 5 1/3 innings.
Elly De La Cruz comes into the game as the Reds’ top hitter this season, batting .261 with a team-leading 25 home runs and 74 RBIs. He has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 6/21 in his last five games with two runs scored and four RBIs. Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are tied for 2nd on the team with 20 homers, but both are hitting below .230 for the season.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are 14th in the league in home runs. Overall, their team batting average is just .232, which is 15th in the MLB. Currently, Nick Martini is on a three-game hitting streak.
Chicago is 82-78 overall and is 10 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. The Cubs are also 10 games behind the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot, and they are 22-28 against other teams in the NL Central. The Cubs took the first game of this series vs. the Reds.
At home, the Cubs are 43-36 this year and 39-42 on the road. As the favorite, the Cubs have gone 44-38 and 38-40 as the underdog. Chicago has won two straight as the favorite, and they are 29-26 as the home favorite this year. So far, their overall series record is 22-25-3, and they are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
Chicago has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 77-83 overall. They have been especially good on the run line on the road, going 47-34. The Cubs have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 50-28. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.8, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.1.
Chicago Cubs games have had a combined run average of 8.7 this season, and their over/under record is 75-79. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, and when the line is set at 7 runs, their record is 4-5-1. Overall, 91.9% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7 runs.
Kyle Hendricks gets the start for the Cubs today and will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Nationals. In that start, he took the loss, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up four earned runs. Looking back further, he has given up two earned runs in three straight starts. Hendricks’ ERA for the season is 6.28, along with a record of 4-12. The right-hander has an ERA of 5.68 at home compared to 8.56 on the road. Opponents are batting .289 off Hendricks this season.
Over his past eight games, Nico Hoerner has been on a tear for the Cubs, going 12/28 (.429) with two homers and five RBIs. Overall, Hoerner is batting .276 with seven homers. Ian Happ and Michael Busch are also near the top of the Cubs’ home run leaderboard, with 25 and 21 homers, respectively. Happ’s 86 RBIs are the best on the team, and Busch has driven in 65 runs this season.
Chicago’s offense is averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 12th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. As a team, the Cubs are batting .243, which is 9th in the MLB, and they are also among the league leaders in walks. Overall, the Cubs are 16th in home runs and have a team slugging percentage of .396.
Given the money line payout, we really like the Cubs to pick up a win at home today. We have them winning this one 6-5, which would give you a nice payout at -129.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Kyle Hendricks finishing with four strikeouts, which is good for fifth worst among today’s starters. As for Rhett Lowder, he is projected to finish with six K’s, which would have him finishing ninth.
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips
- Take the Cubs on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Reds (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge López | Out | Groin |
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Hand |
| Seiya Suzuki | Questionable | Ankle |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Knee |
| Brennen Davis | Out | Ankle |
| Nick Madrigal | Out | Finger |
| Ben Brown | Out | Neck |
| Luke Little | Out | Shoulder |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Oblique |
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | Out | Toe |
| Sam Moll | Out | Shoulder |
| Nick Lodolo | Out | Finger |
| Austin Wynns | Out | Teres Major |
| Stuart Fairchild | Out | Thumb |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Roa | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Abbott | Out | Shoulder |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
| Julian Aguiar | Out | Shoulder |
