Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Prediction & Betting Tips 9/27/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Preview

First pitch for Friday’s matchup between the Mets and Brewers is set for 8:10 PM ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee. The Brewers are 91-68 and are 1st in the NL Central, while the Mets are 2nd in the NL East with an overall record of 87-70.

New York comes into the game as the slight money line favorite, with odds of -121 compared to the Brewers at +101. Friday’s over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs, and the game will be televised on SNY. Sean Manaea will start for the Mets, while the Brewers are sending Frankie Montas to the mound.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets Trends and Key Stats

• The Mets are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
• On the other side, the Brewers have gone 3-2 (SU) and 4-1 in their previous five home contests.
• In their last ten games as the favorite, the Mets have a straight-up record of 7-3 and a runline record of 5-5.
• When playing as the underdog, the Brewers have a 4-6 record against the runline and a 6-4 straight-up record in their last ten games.

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Prediction

The Mets will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Braves with a 5-1 loss. New York was the +123 underdog on the road. Things started off well for the Mets, as they got on the board with a run in the 1st inning but gave up the lead right away as the Braves scored three times in the bottom of the first.

Luis Severino had a rough outing, giving up four earned runs on seven hits and issuing a walk. The Mets also wasted a big game from Mark Vientos, who homered in the 1st inning but went 2/4.

With an overall record of 87-70, the Mets are six games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. New York is 29-21 against other teams in the NL East. The Mets are on the road today, and they have a 41-35 road record compared to going 46-35 at home.

New York lost the series to the Braves, dropping two of three games, and they are 6-4 across their last 10. As the favorite, the Mets are 58-37 this season, and they are 29-33 as the underdog. Their current win streak as the favorite is six games, and their overall series record is 28-18-8.

The Mets have been a solid team to bet on the run line this season, going 80-77. They have been even better on the road, going 42-34. Their average run margin for the season is +0.5, and they have been favored in 95 games, going 44-51 on the run line.

The Mets are on the road against the Brewers today, with the over/under line set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average in their games this season is 9.1 runs, and their over/under record for the season is 79-73. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, and when the line has been set at 7.5 runs, their record is 21-17. In total, 106 of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 67.5% of their games this season. Their under streak is at 2 games.

Left-hander Sean Manaea gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Brewers on the road. He has made 31 starts this year and has a record of 12-5 with a 3.29 ERA. Manaea’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.06, and opponents are batting .191 off him this year. Manaea is coming off a start in which he gave up three earned runs in seven innings of work but still came away with the win. In that outing, he gave up three homers. Manaea has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three starts.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ most consistent power threats this season, as Alonso leads the team with 34 homers, which is 9th in the league, and Lindor is 11th in the MLB with 31 long balls. Lindor comes into the game with a batting average of .271, while Alonso is batting .242. Lindor is also on a four-game hitting streak.

Over their last eight games, Luisangel Acuña and Jose Iglesias have been swinging the bat well, with Acuña going 10/25 and Iglesias batting .441. Iglesias is also on a 17-game hitting streak. Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Alvarez have both hit three homers in their last seven games, but Nimmo is just 6/27 in that stretch.

Heading into their last game vs. the Pirates, the Brewers closed out the series with a 5-2 win. Leading up to the game, they were the slight favorite at -120 on the money line. It was a big 3rd inning that turned things in their favor, and the Pirates could only score two runs, both of which came in the 7th.

Aaron Civale put together a good start for the Brewers, going six innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out five Pirates batters. Milwaukee’s offense was carried by Joey Ortiz, who went 3/3 with a double, run scored, and an RBI.

Milwaukee is currently leading the NL Central by 10 games over the Cardinals. The Brewers are 91-68 overall, and they have gone 32-20 against other teams in the NL Central. Milwaukee will be at home today, hosting the Mets, and they are 45-33 at home this season.

The Brewers have been good on the road, putting together a record of 46-35. This year, the Brewers are 54-38 as the favorite and 37-30 as the underdog. One thing to note is that they have lost three straight games as the underdog. Their overall series record is 29-18-4, and they have won five straight series on the road.

When it comes to betting the run line on the Brewers, it’s been a better proposition to take them as the underdog, as they are 44-23 against the run line in those games. As the favorite, they are just 36-56. They have covered the run line in three straight games when they are the underdog.

The Milwaukee Brewers are playing host to the New York Mets today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Brewers games this season is 8.8 runs per game, and their over/under record is 80-69. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 22-16. Overall, 72.3% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, and their current under streak is at 2 games.

Milwaukee is sending right-hander Frankie Montas to the mound today vs. the Mets. Montas has made 29 starts this season and has a record of 7-11 with an ERA of 4.85. Looking at his overall numbers, Montas has a WHIP of 1.37 and has issued 3.87 walks per nine innings compared to 8.71 strikeouts. Montas has turned in nine quality starts this year, and he most recently finished with a no-decision vs. the Diamondbacks, giving up seven earned runs in 2 2/3 innings of work. Before that outing, he had won two straight starts.

Heading into today’s game, Willy Adames is on a four-game hitting streak and has been swinging a hot bat for the Brewers, going 8/24 in his last six games. Adames is 10th in the league with 32 homers and is 4th in the league with 111 RBIs. William Contreras has also been a key run producer for the Brewers, as his 92 RBIs is 2nd on the team, and he is batting .281.

As a team, the Brewers are 6th in the league at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting .249 (8th) and have the league’s 3rd best on-base percentage. Milwaukee’s offense has also done a good job of avoiding strikeouts, as they are 20th in the league in this category.

With the Brewers at +101 on the money line, this is a great value pick. We have the Brewers taking this one by a score of 6-5. Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Frankie Montas finishing with six strikeouts, and Sean Manaea with seven.

Offensively, the Brewers are projected to finish with 11 hits compared to the Mets with eight. If you’re looking for a home run prop, the Brewers are projected to hit the fifth most home runs in the league today, while the Mets are seventh.

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Betting Tips

• We like the Brewers on the moneyline (+101)
• On the run line we like Brewers (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report

New York Mets Injury Report