Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Betting Tips 9/27/2024

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview

Philadelphia is the heavy favorite on the money line heading into Friday’s matchup vs. the Nationals, as they are at -185 compared to the Nationals at +155. This NL East matchup has a start time of 6:45 PM ET from Nationals Park in Washington, DC. NSPPH is carrying the game on TV.

The Phillies have a record of 94-65, while the Nationals are 69-90 overall. Philadelphia is currently 1st in the NL East, while the Nationals are on a four-game losing streak and are 4th in the division. Ranger Suarez is starting for the Phillies, and he is facing off against Trevor Williams for the Nationals.

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Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats

• The Phillies are 1-4 across their last five road games. They have gone 1-4 vs. the runline.
• On the opposing side, the Nationals have a 1-4 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
• Over their last ten games, the Phillies have a 5-5 straight-up record when playing as the favorite, along with a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
• Over their last ten games as the underdog, the Nationals have gone 5-5 vs. the runline and 6-4 straight-up.

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

The Phillies’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Cubs, closing out their series with a 9-6 win. After allowing three runs to the Cubs in the top of the first, the Phillies responded with three runs of their own. Philadelphia went on to add another three runs in the 3rd inning.

Cristopher Sánchez got the start for the Phillies, going 4 2/3 innings, and picked up the win. He also issued just one walk and struck out four Cubs batters. Nick Castellanos was hot at the plate, going 3/4 with a homer and three RBIs.

With an overall record of 94-65, the Phillies lead the Mets by six games for the NL East lead. The Phillies are 28-21 in divisional games coming into today’s road matchup vs. the Nationals. Philadelphia won two of three in their most recent series vs. the Cubs.

At home, the Phillies have been strong this year, going 54-27. On the road, the Phillies are just above .500 at 40-38. As the favorite, the Phillies have gone 81-47 this year, and they are 13-18 as the underdog. The team’s overall series record is 27-18-7 this year.

Philadelphia is 40-38 against the run line on the road this season, with an average scoring margin of 0.4 runs per game. The Phillies are 16-15 against the run line as an underdog, and their average run margin in winning games is 3.9 runs per game.

Today’s over/under line of 8 runs is right in line with the Philadelphia Phillies’ season average, as their games have averaged 9.0 runs per contest. The Phillies have a 75-75 over/under record on the year, and when the line has been set at 8 runs, they have gone 20-18-3. Overall, 73 of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8 runs, accounting for 45.9% of their contests. Philadelphia’s over streak is currently at 2 games.

Ranger Suárez gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Nationals on the road. So far this season, he has made 26 starts and has a record of 12-7 with an ERA of 3.15. Suárez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.16. In his 26 appearances, he has one complete game shutout and 11 quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Suárez finished with a no-decision against the Mets, giving up two earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts.

Philadelphia comes into the game as one of the league’s top offensive teams, averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 4th in the MLB. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per game. Overall, the Phillies are 7th in home runs and have the 4th best team batting average in the league. They also do a good job of getting on base, as they are 3rd in OBP and have the 5th best slugging percentage in the league.

Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper have been two of the Phillies’ top power threats this season, with Schwarber leading the team with 38 homers and Harper coming in with 30. Schwarber has gone deep three times in his last nine games while batting .256 in that stretch. Nick Castellanos has also been swinging a hot bat for the Phillies, going 14/33 in his last nine games, including three homers.

Led by a big game by Luis Garcia at the plate, the Nationals scored four runs on seven hits in their most recent game vs. the Royals. However, Washington couldn’t hold onto the lead, as the Royals scored three runs in the top of the 9th to pick up the 7-4 win. The Nationals were the +147 underdog at home going into this game.

Patrick Corbin got the start for the Nationals and took the loss. He only lasted 5 1/3 innings, giving up four earned runs on six hits. Washington’s bullpen also struggled, as Kyle Finnegan took the loss out of the bullpen, and the Nationals allowed three unearned runs in the 9th.

Washington is 69-90 overall and in 4th place in the NL East, 25 games behind the Phillies. The Nationals will host the Phillies today with a four-game losing streak, and they have lost three straight at home. Their struggles have been mostly against other NL East teams, as they are just 23-26 in the division this year.

At home, the Nationals are 36-42 compared to 33-48 on the road. This season, the Nationals have really struggled as the underdog, going 54-77. As the favorite, Washington is just above .500 at 15-13. Looking at their overall series record, the Nationals are 19-25-6 and lost three straight series.

The Nationals have a run line record of 41-37 at home, and their average run margin is -0.6 runs per game. They have covered the run line in 13 of 28 games as the favorite, but they are 74-57 vs. the run line as the underdog.

Washington is playing at home today against the Phillies, and the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The Nationals have an average combined run average of 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 74-79. The average over/under line for their games is 9 runs, and when the line is set at 8 runs, their record is 10-11-1. Overall, 65.4% of their games have had over/under lines set at over 8 runs.

Trevor Williams gets the start for the Nationals today and comes into the game with a record of 5-1 and an ERA of 2.19. Looking back at his last outing, Williams took the loss, going five innings and giving up one earned run on three hits. In that outing, he gave up one homer. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Williams has made 12 appearances this year and just one has been a quality start. His ERA at home is 1.67 compared to 2.51 on the road.

Washington’s offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, as they are just 25th in runs scored and have the 24th ranked home run total. As a team, they are batting just .241 and have a collective on-base percentage of .307. However, they do have two of the league’s top home run hitters in CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr.

Over his last seven games, Joey Gallo has gone 5/20 with two homers and six RBIs. Currently, Lane Thomas and James Wood are on hitting streaks of three and four games, respectively.

Our predictions for this Phillies vs. Nationals matchup is to take the Nationals on the money line at +155. We actually have the Nationals winning this one 6-5, and with the payout at +155, this is a great value pick.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Trevor Williams finishing with five strikeouts compared to Ranger Suarez with five as well. Suarez is projected to finish with fewer earned runs, but Williams is projected to finish with more strikeouts.

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips

• We like the Nationals on the moneyline (+155)
• On the run line we like Nationals (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Washington Nationals Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report