Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Preview
Thursday’s interleague matchup between the Marlins and Twins is set to get started at 7:40 PM ET from Target Field in Minneapolis. The Twins are heavily favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -252, while the Marlins are +209 underdogs. The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs.
David Festa is starting for the Twins, while the Marlins are sending Valente Bellozo to the mound. The Twins are 82-76 and are 4th in the AL Central, while the Marlins are 5th in the NL East with an overall record of 58-100. BSFL will be televising Thursday’s game.
Check out BetCoco for Minnesota Twins – Miami Marlins odds
Minnesota Twins vs. Miami Marlins Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Marlins are 1-4. This includes going 2-3 vs. the runline.
- The Twins, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 1-4 (SU) and 2-3 record.
- As the favorite, the Twins are 3-7 over their last ten games, including going 3-7 vs. the runline.
- Looking at the Marlins’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 3-7 straight-up and 5-5 vs. the runline.
It was all Minnesota in the last game of this series, as the Twins took down the Marlins by a score of 8-3. The Twins offense only had eight hits but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -193 on the money line.
Miami actually got on the board first in this game, scoring three runs in the first inning. As for the Twins, they didn’t get on the board until the 3rd, but they broke out for five run in the 7th and added two more in the 8th. As a result, the Twins had this game well in hand heading into the 9th.
Simeon Woods Richardson only went one inning for the Twins but gave up just two hits and two earned runs. Griffin Jax came out of the bullpen for the win. Edward Cabrera had a rough outing for the Marlins, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work.
Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Prediction
Miami is on the road today to take on the Twins, and they are 58-100 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East. The Marlins trail the Phillies by 35.5 games in the division and are 18-34 against other NL East teams. So far, they have lost four straight series.
The Marlins have struggled at home this year, going 30-51, and they are 28-49 on the road. As the underdog, Miami is 54-86 this year compared to 4-14 as the favorite. Miami’s overall record is a result of going just 3-7 over their last 10 games.
When betting the Marlins on the run line this season, it’s been a good idea to take them as the underdog. They’re 72-68 against the run line as the underdog, compared to just 2-16 when favored. Their overall run line record is 74-84, and they’re 39-38 against the run line on the road. Their average run margin in winning games is +2.8, while it’s -3.9 in losses.
The Miami Marlins are on the road today against the Minnesota Twins. The O/U line for the game is set at 8.5 runs, which is lower than their combined run average of 9.1 runs per game. The Marlins have a record of 29-25 when the O/U line is set at 8.5 runs, and 83 of their 152 games this season have had O/U lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.
Miami is sending Valente Bellozo to the mound today vs. the Twins, and he comes in with a record of 3-4 and an ERA of 3.82. Bellozo has made 12 starts this year and has turned in just two quality starts. His most recent outing was vs. the Braves, where he picked up the win, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up three earned runs. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. Bellozo’s ERA on the road is 3.89, compared to 4.74 at home. Opponents are batting .251 off the right-hander this season.
One of the few bright spots for the Marlins offense this season has been the play of Jake Burger, who is hitting .247 for the season and has gone 8/27 with three homers over his last seven games. Burger’s 72 RBIs are the top mark on the team, and his 29 homers are 13th in the league. Jesús Sánchez is also batting .247 and is 2nd on the team with 18 homers and 63 RBIs.
As a team, the Marlins are 28th in runs scored and are batting just .242. They have been a bit better at home, averaging 4.2 runs per game, but that is still just 17th in the league. Miami’s team OBP of .298 is 20th in the league, and they are also near the bottom of the league in walks.
At 82-76, the Twins are 4th in the AL Central, trailing the Guardians by 9.5 games. So far, they have gone 29-23 in divisional matchups. Minnesota is 43-34 at home compared to 39-42 on the road. The Twins have really enjoyed being the favorite this season, where they are 65-46. As the underdog, the Twins are 17-30 this season.
Minnesota has dropped three straight series, and their overall series record is 26-20-4. They will try to pick up a win today, as they are just 4-6 over their last ten games. The Twins’ overall record is the same as the Marlins, at 82-76.
Minnesota has been a solid run-line bet this season, going 73-85 overall. They are 33-44 against the run line at home and 40-41 on the road. The Twins have an average run margin of +0.2 runs per game this season.
Minnesota has been a solid over bet this season, with an O/U record of 80-72. Their games have averaged 9.1 runs per game, and their average O/U line is 8 runs. When the line has been set at 8.5 runs, they have gone over 25 times and under 22 times. Only 8.9% of their games have had higher lines than 8.5 runs.
Right-hander David Festa gets the start for the Twins today as he faces the Marlins at home. Festa has made 12 starts this year and has a record of 2-6 with an ERA of 4.80. He has made just one quality start this year and is averaging 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Festa most recently faced the Red Sox, where he went five innings, giving up one earned run on four hits. He finished with six strikeouts in the outing. Festa has not won a game at home this year, coming in with a record of 0-4 and 5.95 ERA.
Carlos Santana comes into the game as the Twins’ leader in home runs this season, but he has struggled at the plate of late, hitting just .179 over his last 10 games. For the season, he is batting just .234. Willi Castro and Ryan Jeffers are also near the top of the Twins’ home run leaderboard, with 12 and 20 homers, respectively. Castro is batting .250 for the season, while Jeffers is at just .224.
Over his last eight games, Byron Buxton has gone 10/33 with a home run and four RBIs. This has pushed his season average to .250. Buxton’s hot stretch has also put him on a five-game hitting streak. Willi Castro is also swinging the bat well right now, going 10/35 in his last 10 games.
We do like the Twins to get the win in this one, but at -252, the payout isn’t great. Instead, we recommend taking the over, as we have this one finishing with a score of 6-5 in favor of the Twins.
Looking at some potential starting pitcher props, we do have Valente Bellozo finishing with more strikeouts than David Festa. However, our projections have Festa going five innings, compared to Bellozo, who we have going just five.
Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips
- Take the Twins on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Marlins (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Minnesota Twins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Out | Elbow |
| Max Kepler | Out | Knee |
| Alex Kirilloff | Out | Back |
| Chris Paddack | Out | Forearm |
| Brock Stewart | Out | Undisclosed |
| Joe Ryan | Out | Teres Major |
| Matt Wallner | Out | Oblique |
| Daniel Duarte | Out | Elbow |
| Kody Funderburk | Out | Oblique |
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Braxton Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Jesús Luzardo | Out | Back |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Mike Baumann | Out | Personal |
| Max Meyer | Out | Shoulder |
| John McMillon | Out | Elbow |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Calvin Faucher | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Nardi | Out | Elbow |
