Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
The Guardians are the heavy favorite on the money line today at -163, while the Reds are sitting at +139. Today’s over/under line is at 8 runs, and the game will be televised on BSGL.
First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 6:40 PM ET. The Guardians are looking to stop a two-game losing streak and are 90-67, while the Reds are 76-81, putting them 4th in the NL Central.
Check out BetCoco for Cleveland Guardians – Cincinnati Reds odds
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds Trends and Key Stats
- The Reds are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- In the Guardians’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 3-2 (SU) with 4-1 against the spread.
- The Guardians have a straight-up record of 6-4 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Reds have won 4-6 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 5-5 against the runline.
Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
Cincinnati closed out their series vs. the Pirates with a 2-0 loss. This was especially tough, as they held the lead in the NL Central going into the game. The Reds were the slight favorite at -110 on the money line. Things started off well for the Reds, as Jonathan India singled in the 1st inning but was left stranded. However, the Pirates scored a run in the top of the first and added another run in the 5th to pick up the win.
Hunter Greene got the start for the Reds and took the loss. He only lasted three innings, giving up two earned runs on two hits. Greene walked three batters and took the loss. Offensively, the Reds only had three fewer hits than the Pirates but didn’t score a run. Jonathan India had two hits and a stolen base but was left stranded both times.
Cincinnati is 76-81 overall, putting them 4th in the NL Central. Currently, they trail the Cardinals by 3.5 games for 3rd place in the division and are 13.5 games behind the Brewers for the division lead. The Reds are on the road today, taking on the Guardians and have gone 5-5 across their last 10 games.
This season, the Reds have gone 39-42 at home compared to 37-39 on the road. Cincinnati has an overall series record of 20-28-3 this year. As the underdog, the Reds are 41-47 this year, which includes having lost two straight as the underdog.
The Reds have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 85-72 overall. They’ve been even better on the run line on the road, going 47-29. The average run margin in their games this season is just 0.1 runs per game, but they have been outscored by 0.4 runs per game at home.
The Cincinnati Reds have an over/under record of 73-77 this season, and the over/under line for today’s game against the Cleveland Guardians is set at 8 runs. The Reds have had an average combined run average of 8.7 runs per game this season, and their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs. When the over/under line has been set at 8 runs this season, the Reds have gone over the total in 7 of 20 games. Cincinnati’s games have had an over/under line of 8 runs or higher in 70.7% of their games this season.
Jakob Junis gets the start for the Reds today as he faces off against the Guardians on the road. He has made 23 appearances this season to go along with five starts. Junis’ record for the season is 4-0, and he has an ERA of 2.61. Opposing batters are hitting .197 off Junis this season, and he has a WHIP of .84. One of Junis’ 23 appearances was a quality start, and his ERA on the road is 3.58 compared to 2.65 at home. The right-hander most recently pitched on September 18th, where he went six innings, giving up one earned run, and finished with a no-decision.
Elly De La Cruz has been swinging the bat well for the Reds of late, going 10/30 in his last seven games with a home run and five RBIs. For the season, he is batting .261 with a team-high 25 homers and 74 RBIs. Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are also tied for 2nd on the team with 20 homers, but both players are batting below .230 for the season.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are 11th in the league in home runs. They have been pretty consistent, averaging 4.4 runs per game both at home and on the road. Currently, they are batting just .233, which is 19th in the MLB.
Cleveland wrapped up their series vs. the Cardinals with a 2-1 loss on the road. The Guardians were the +109 underdog going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Guardians, as they got on the board with a run in the 1st inning but couldn’t hold the lead. The Cardinals scored two runs in the 6th to take the lead, and Cleveland’s offense didn’t score again after that.
Gavin Williams got the start for the Guardians and took the loss. He pitched well, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up just one earned run while striking out three. However, the Guardians couldn’t close things out, and Tim Herrin took the loss out of the bullpen. The Guardians also wasted a good game from Tyler Freeman, who went 2/4 with a run scored.
Cleveland is hosting the Reds today with an overall record of 90-67, and they lead the AL Central by 7.5 games. The Guardians dropped the final two games of their series vs. the Cardinals, and they are 6-4 across their last ten games. So far, they have gone 30-22 against other teams in the AL Central.
At home, the Guardians are 48-28 this year and 42-39 on the road. As the favorite, Cleveland has gone 62-34 and 28-33 as the underdog. The Guardians have won two straight games at home, and their overall series record is 28-16-6.
The Guardians have been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 80-77 overall. They have been slightly better on the road, going 43-38 compared to 37-39 at home. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 36-25 compared to 44-52 as the favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.3, while it is -3.1 in losing games.
The Cleveland Guardians are playing at home against the Cincinnati Reds today. The over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs, which is right in line with their season average. The Guardians have played 69 games this season with higher over/under lines than 8 runs, which accounts for 43.9% of their games. Their over/under record for the season is 68-78, and their games have averaged 8.3 runs per game.
Cleveland is sending Tanner Bibee to the mound today vs. the Reds, and he comes into the game with a record of 11-8 and an ERA of 3.56. So far this year, he has made 30 starts, and opponents are batting .227 off the right-hander. Bibee’s last outing came on September 18th vs. the Twins, where he finished with a no-decision, going 6 2/3 innings and giving up two earned runs. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. One area to watch with Bibee is his home run total, as he has allowed at least one homer in each of his last four outings.
Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been the Guardians’ top power threats this season, as Ramirez’s 37 homers are 6th in the league, and Naylor’s 31 long balls are 10th in the MLB. Ramirez also leads the team with 112 RBIs, which is 3rd in the league. However, Ramirez has gone just 7/24 in his last six games, and Naylor is just 3/23 in that stretch.
Andrés Giménez has been hot of late, going 8/20 in his last five games with a home run. This has him on a four-game hitting streak. For the season, he is batting .274 with a team-high 37 homers.
Our prediction for the Guardians vs. Reds game is to take the Guardians on the money line at -163. However, we see this being a close one and have the Guardians winning by a score of 6-5, giving us a lot of value on the over, with the line sitting at 8 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Tanner Bibee is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is good for eighth among starters. As for Jakob Junis, he is projected to finish with five K’s, which has him down in 17th.
Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips
- Take the Guardians on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Reds (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Out | Finger |
| Sam Hentges | Out | Shoulder |
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
| Steven Kwan | Out | Back |
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | Out | Toe |
| Sam Moll | Out | Shoulder |
| Nick Lodolo | Out | Finger |
| Austin Wynns | Out | Teres Major |
| Nick Martini | Out | Thumb |
| Stuart Fairchild | Out | Thumb |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Elbow |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Roa | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Abbott | Out | Shoulder |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
