Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Prediction & Betting Tips 9/21/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Preview

Minnesota heads into Boston on Saturday looking for a win, as they are currently favored on the money line (-137). The Red Sox, meanwhile, are looking to snap a two-game losing streak and they are 4th in the AL East with a record of 76-78.

First pitch from Fenway Park is set for 4:10 PM ET. BSN is covering this one on TV, and the over/under line is sitting at 8 runs. Kutter Crawford is starting for the Red Sox, and the Twins are going with Pablo Lopez.

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Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Trends and Key Stats

• 2-3 is the record of Twins in their last five road games. They have also gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
• The Red Sox, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 2-3 (SU) and 1-4 record.
• Over their last ten games, the Twins have a 4-6 straight-up record when playing as the favorite, along with a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
• Over their last ten games as the underdog, the Red Sox have gone 4-6 vs. the runline and 5-5 straight-up.

It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Twins vs Red Sox series. Minnesota went into the matchup as slight favorites at -120 and squeaked out a 4-2 win. The Twins offense only had one more hit than the Red Sox and struck out eight times, but still picked up a win.

David Festa got the start for the Twins, going five innings and giving up just one hit and one earned run. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued three walks. Scott Blewett came out of the bullpen for the win, and Griffin Jax got the save.

Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, Carlos Correa, and Matt Wallner each had two hits for the Twins. Royce Lewis also had a two-hit game and scored a run. Jarren Duran did the most damage for the Red Sox, going 2/4 with two RBIs.

Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Minnesota is 81-73 overall and trails the Guardians by 8.5 games in the AL Central. The Twins are 29-23 against other teams in the division. So far, they have been good at home, going 42-33, and they are just one game below .500 on the road (39-40).

So far, the Twins have been good as the favorite, going 64-43, but just 17-30 as the underdog. Minnesota has an overall series record of 26-19-4 this year, and they have dropped two straight series.

When the Twins win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.7 runs per victory. They are 72-82 against the run line on the season, but have been a better bet on the road (40-39) than at home (32-43). They are 47-60 against the run line as the favorite and 25-22 as the underdog.

The Minnesota Twins are on the road today against the Boston Red Sox. The over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs. The Twins have a combined run average of 9.1 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 77-71. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 13-21-5. Overall, 60 of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, accounting for 39.0% of their games this season. Their current under streak is at 2 games.

Pablo López will be looking to build off his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Guardians, he went 6 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, and he didn’t allow a homer in that outing. Before that, he had picked up the win in three straight outings. In one of those wins, he didn’t give up a run. Lopez has a record of 15-8 and an ERA of 3.84. Opposing batters are hitting .243 off the right-hander this season. Lopez has made 18 quality starts this year and is averaging 9.58 strikeouts per nine innings.

Carlos Santana has been the Twins’ top power threat this season, as he leads the team with 22 home runs and 65 RBIs, but he is batting just .238. Ryan Jeffers is right behind him with 20 homers and is 2nd on the team with 62 RBIs. Willi Castro has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/25 in his last eight games.

As a team, the Twins are averaging 4.7 runs per game and are 5th in the league in home runs. So far, they have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Minnesota comes into the game with the league’s 8th best batting average at .248.

Boston is 76-78 overall and trails the Yankees by 14 games in the AL East. They have dropped two straight games, and they are losing the series vs. the Twins 0-1. The Red Sox are 3-7 over their last 10 games and have gone 22-24 against other AL East teams.

At home, the Red Sox are 35-41 this season while going 41-37 on the road. So far, they have been the favorite in 76 of their games, going 41-35 in those matchups. As the underdog, Boston is 35-43 this season.

When the Red Sox win, they win big, with an average run margin of +3.9 runs per game. But when they lose, they lose by an average of -3.8 runs per game. Their overall run line record is 72-82, and they are 28-48 against the run line at home. They have a run line record of 44-34 on the road.

The Boston Red Sox are playing at home against the Minnesota Twins today. The over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs, which is lower than their season average of 9.3 runs per game. The Red Sox have hit the over in 13 of the 26 games where the line was set at 8 runs, and the under has hit in their last three games.

Kutter Crawford gets the start for the Red Sox today and will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing against the Yankees. In that start, he took the loss, going 4 1/3 innings and giving up four earned runs. Looking back over his last three starts, Crawford has taken the loss in each outing. Crawford’s record for the season is 8-15, and he has an ERA of 4.19. Opponents are batting .217 this season off Crawford. Overall, he has made 31 starts, 14 of which were quality starts. Per nine innings, Crawford is averaging 2.46 walks compared to 8.49 strikeouts.

Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are 8th in home runs and have the league’s top batting average on balls in play. Overall, they are 6th in batting average and are averaging 4.7 runs per game (10th). Boston’s offense has been especially good at avoiding strikeouts, as they are 28th in the league in strikeouts per game.

Rafael Devers is the team’s top power threat, as his 28 homers are 2nd on the team and 15th in the league. He also leads the Red Sox with 83 RBIs and is batting .272 for the season. Tyler O’Neill has 31 homers this season (12th in the MLB) but has really struggled of late, going just 1/19 in his last five games.

With the Red Sox being the underdogs at +117, we see this as a great opportunity to take them on the money line. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Red Sox, giving you some room to take them on the run line if you prefer.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Kutter Crawford is projected to finish with five strikeouts compared to Pablo Lopez with five. However, Lopez is predicted to go for more innings, giving him a better chance to pick up a win.

Offensively, the Twins are projected to finish with eight strikeouts compared to the Red Sox at nine. The Twins do have a higher projected home run total, but we still have the Red Sox finishing with more runs.

Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Betting Tips

• Take the Twins on the moneyline
• On the run line we like Red Sox (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Boston Red Sox Injury Report

Minnesota Twins Injury Report