Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
From Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, we have the Pirates and Reds facing off in an NL Central matchup. First pitch is at 1:10 PM ET, and the Reds are the slight favorite on the money line (-122). The money line odds for a Pirates win are sitting at +103, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs.
SN PT is televising Saturday’s matchup, and on the mound, we have Jared Jones for the Pirates and Rhett Lowder for the Reds. The Reds are 75-80, while the Pirates are 72-82 and are currently in 5th place in the NL Central.
Check out BetCoco for Cincinnati Reds – Pittsburgh Pirates odds
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Trends and Key Stats
- The Pirates are 1-4 in their five most recent road games, including a 1-4 runline record.
- On the opposing side, the Reds have a 2-3 (SU) record, along with a 3-2 record in their last five home contests.
- The Reds have a straight-up record of 5-5 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
- The Pirates have a 3-7 straight-up record and a 3-7 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
Cincinnati cruised to an easy 8-3 win over the Pirates in the most recent game of this series. The Reds had a huge 3rd inning, scoring four of their eight runs. As for the Pirates, they scored their only three runs in the 9th. Heading into the game, the Reds were favored at -128 on the money line.
Nick Martinez started for the Reds and picked up the win, going six innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with nine strikeouts but issued five walks. Mitch Keller had a rough outing for the Pirates, taking the loss after going just 3 1/3 innings and giving up eight earned runs.
At the plate, Tyler Stephenson and Jonathan India each had two RBIs for the Reds’ offense. Stephenson, Oneil Cruz, and Rowdy Tellez each homered for the Reds. Cruz had a two-home run performance at the plate.
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
The Pirates are 72-82 overall and trail the Brewers by 16 games in the NL Central. Currently, they are 5th in the division and are 23-24 against other teams in the NL Central. So far, they have gone 38-40 at home compared to 34-42 on the road.
As the underdog, the Pirates are 38-54 this season, and they are 34-28 when favored. Pittsburgh’s overall series record is 19-23-6, and they have dropped two straight series heading into today’s game vs. the Reds.
When it comes to the run line, the Pirates have been a good bet this season, going 82-72. They’ve been especially profitable on the road, where they’re 44-32. They’ve been a better bet as the underdog, going 58-34. Their average run margin is -0.4, and they’ve been outscored by an average of 0.5 runs per game at home.
The Pirates have played to an over/under record of 75-77 this season, and their games have averaged 8.7 runs per contest. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, they have gone over the total 31 times and under 23 times. Overall, 14.9% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8.5 runs, while 50.0% have had lower lines.
Jared Jones gets the start for the Pirates today as he faces the Reds on the road. So far, he has made 20 starts and has a record of 6-7 with an ERA of 3.85. In his last outing, Jones finished with a no-decision, going four innings and giving up two earned runs on six hits. Before that, he had put together a nice outing, going seven innings and giving up just two earned runs. Jones has allowed at least one homer in three straight starts. Per nine innings, he has 9.61 strikeouts and 2.72 walks.
For the season, the Pirates are averaging just 4.1 runs per game, which is 22nd in the league. This is a team that has struggled with strikeouts, as they are 26th in the league in this category. As a team, they are batting just .236, which is 15th in the league. Currently, they are 23rd in home runs and have a team OPS of just .673.
Bryan Reynolds has been the Pirates’ top run producer this season, as he has 85 RBIs to go along with a team-high 22 homers. Reynolds is also batting .278 for the season. Oneil Cruz and Bryan De La Cruz are also near the top of the Pirates’ home run leaderboard, with 20 homers apiece.
Cincinnati is 75-80 overall and trails the Brewers by 13.5 games in the NL Central. Currently, they are 4th in the division and have gone 22-25 against other teams in the NL Central. The Reds are also 38-41 at home this year.
The Reds have gone 37-39 on the road this year. So far, they have been the favorite in 67 games, going 34-33 in those games. As for their games as the underdog, they are 41-47. Cincinnati’s overall series record is 19-27-3, and they are currently winning their series vs. the Pirates.
When it comes to the run line, the Reds have been a better bet on the road (47-29) than at home (37-42). They have a run differential of +0.6 runs per game on the road compared to -0.4 runs per game at home. They have been a better bet as the underdog (56-32) than as the favorite (28-39).
The Cincinnati Reds are playing at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates today. The over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Reds games this season is 8.8 runs per game. The over/under record for Cincinnati is 73-75 this season, and the average over/under line in their games is 9 runs. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, the over/under record for the Reds is 19-16. This season, 48.4% of Reds games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, with the over hitting in their last two games.
Rhett Lowder will be making his 4th start of the season for the Reds, and he has a 1-1 record through his first three outings. His last start was a loss against the Twins, where he went 5 1/3 innings, giving up 3 earned runs on 6 hits. Lowder has yet to go more than 6 1/3 innings in a start this season.
Elly De La Cruz has been one of the Reds’ most consistent hitters this season, batting .260 with 24 homers and 70 RBIs. He is also on a five-game hitting streak. Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are also tied for 2nd on the team with 20 homers, but both are batting under .230 for the season.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. They are also 15th in home runs and have the 17th ranked batting average in the league. Cincinnati’s offense is coming off a strong stretch, as TJ Friedl has gone 9/21 in his last six games with two homers and seven RBIs.
Getting the Reds at -122 on the money line is a great pick for today’s Pirates vs. Reds matchup. Our predicted final score is 5-4 in favor of the Reds, giving us some room to take the Reds on the money line as opposed to the over/under.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Rhett Lowder is projected to finish with five strikeouts compared to Jared Jones, who is projected to finish with four. However, Lowder is the better option, as he has a higher chance of picking up a win and is projected to finish with fewer earned runs.
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips
- Take the Reds on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Pirates (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | Out | Toe |
| Sam Moll | Out | Shoulder |
| Nick Lodolo | Out | Finger |
| Austin Wynns | Out | Teres Major |
| Nick Martini | Out | Thumb |
| Stuart Fairchild | Out | Thumb |
| Hunter Greene | Out | Elbow |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Elbow |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Roa | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Abbott | Out | Shoulder |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Out | Elbow |
| Marco Gonzales | Out | Forearm |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | Out | Back |
| Ben Heller | Out | Shoulder |
| Daulton Jefferies | Out | Elbow |
| Dauri Moreta | Out | Elbow |
| Kyle Nicolas | Out | Side |
| Henry Davis | Out | Hand |
| Hunter Stratton | Out | Knee |
| Endy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
