New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Betting Tips 9/20/2024

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview

First pitch for this Phillies and Mets matchup is set for 7:10 PM ET from Citi Field in New York, NY. The Phillies are 91-62 and they are 1st in the NL East, while the Mets are 85-68 and they are on a 4 game winning streak. LHP David Peterson is starting for the Mets, and the Phillies are starting Cristopher Sanchez.

The money line odds have the Mets at -109 compared to the Phillies at -108, and the over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs. APLTV is carrying this one on TV. The Phillies are looking to snap a 2 game losing streak.

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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats

• The Phillies are 1-4 across their last five road games. They have gone 1-4 vs. the runline.
• On the other side, the Mets have gone 2-3 (SU) and 3-2 in their previous five home contests.
• The Phillies are 5-5 in their last ten games as the favorite and 4-6 as the underdog.
• In their last ten games, the Mets have a record of 7-3 as the favorite and 6-4 as the underdog.

New York cruised to a 10-6 win over the Phillies in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a huge 4th inning, scoring five of their ten runs. As for the Phillies, they scored three of their six runs in the 7th. Heading into the game, the Mets were favored at -137 on the money line.

Luis Severino pitched well for the Mets in this one, going six innings and striking out seven without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Taijuan Walker had a rough outing for the Phillies, giving up eight runs in just 3 1/3 innings of work.

Trea Turner hit the game’s only home run while going 1/5 with two RBIs, but it came in a losing effort. Brandon Nimmo did a bit of everything for the Mets, going 2/5 with a home run and three RBIs.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Philadelphia is currently leading the NL East with a record of 91-62, which puts them six games ahead of the Mets for the division lead. The Phillies have dropped two straight games, with their overall series record sitting at 25-17-7. At home, the Phillies are 52-26 this season and 39-36 on the road.

As the road underdog, the Phillies have gone 12-14 this season, and they are 13-17 as the underdog overall. Philadelphia’s losing streak as the underdog is two games, and they are 78-45 when favored this year. In their last 10 games overall, the Phillies are 6-4.

Philadelphia has been a strong bet against the run line this season, going 74-79 overall. They are 39-36 against the run line on the road, where their average run margin is +0.4 runs per game. They have been a better bet at home, going 35-43 against the run line with an average run margin of +1.1 runs per game.

The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road today against the New York Mets, with the over/under line set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Phillies games this season is 8.9 runs, and their over/under record is 71-74. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 13-16. Overall, 72.5% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs.

Cristopher Sánchez gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Mets on the road. So far this season, he has made 29 starts and has a record of 10-9 with an ERA of 3.24. Sánchez has pitched well at home, coming in with a 2.23 ERA compared to 5.61 on the road. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going seven innings and giving up one earned run on six hits. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight starts. Sánchez has a shutout and two complete games this year.

As a team, the Phillies are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is the 5th best mark in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per game. Overall, they are the 4th best hitting team in the league, with a team batting average of .258. The Phillies have been even better in terms of on-base percentage, as their team OBP of .326 is 4th in the league.

Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been two of the Phillies’ top power threats this season, as Harper has 29 homers (12th in the league) and Schwarber has gone deep 35 times (7th in the MLB). Harper has gone 12/37 in his last 10 games, including three homers, while Schwarber has also homered three times in this stretch.

The Mets are six games behind the Phillies in the NL East but have a chance to pick up a game today as they are hosting the Phillies. New York has won four straight games, and they are 85-68 overall this season. The Mets took the series opener vs. the Phillies.

At home, the Mets are 44-34 this season, and they are 41-34 on the road. As the favorite, the Mets are 57-37 this season and 28-31 as the underdog. New York has won four straight games at home, and their overall series record is 27-15-8. Over the last 10 games, the Mets are 7-3.

When the Mets are at home, they are a slightly better than average run line team, going 36-42. They have been a better run line team on the road, going 42-33. As the underdog, they are 35-24 on the run line. They have won three straight games on the run line and have covered the run line in three straight games when they are favored.

The Mets are at home today against the Phillies, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Mets games this season is 9.1 runs, and their over/under record is 77-71. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, the Mets have gone over the total 19 times and under 16 times. Overall, 69.3% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, and their current over streak is at three games.

David Peterson is getting the start for the Mets today vs. the Phillies and comes into the game with a record of 9-2 and an ERA of 2.85. So far this season, he has made 19 starts, and opponents are batting .235 off the left-hander. Peterson has turned in 11 quality starts this year and is averaging 7.26 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going 7 2/3 innings and giving up one earned run on six hits vs. the Phillies. Before that, he had won three straight starts.

Heading into today’s game, the Mets are 4th in the league in runs per game at 4.8. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league’s 5th best home run hitting team and have the 8th best team batting average in the league. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor have been the team’s top power hitters this season, as Alonso leads the team with 34 homers, and Lindor is right behind him with 31.

Alonso has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/24 in his last six games with two homers and six RBIs. Jose Iglesias is also on a nice run, as he is batting .423 over his last six games and is currently on a 13-game hitting streak. Brandon Nimmo has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 6/20 in his last five games with two homers.

With the Phillies coming in at -108 on the money line, we see this as a great value pick, as we have them winning this one by a score of 6-5. If you’re looking for a parlay option, we also like the Phillies to pick up the win and the over, as the line is sitting at 7.5 runs.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Christopher Sanchez finishing with six strikeouts, which would have him as the sixth best among starters. As for David Peterson, we have him with six strikeouts as well, but he comes in at 13th in terms of starters.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips

• We like the Phillies on the moneyline (-108)
• The Phillies should also cover at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

New York Mets Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report