Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Preview
Thursday’s matchup between the Diamondbacks and Brewers has a first pitch set for 7:15 PM ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee. The Brewers are 88-64 and are starting Tobias Myers, while the Diamondbacks are starting Brandon Pfaadt and are 84-68.
Arizona is favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -116 compared to the Brewers at -101. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and FOX is carrying this game on TV. The Brewers are 1st in the NL Central, while the Diamondbacks are 3rd in the NL West.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Trends and Key Stats
- The Diamondbacks are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- In the Brewers’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 3-2 (SU) with 4-1 against the spread.
- In the past ten games, when playing as the favorite, the Diamondbacks have a record of 6-4, while as the underdog, they have a record of 3-7.
- The Brewers have a 6-4 record when favored, while their record as the underdog is 5-5.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction
The Diamondbacks’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Rockies, closing out their series with a 9-4 win. After allowing three runs to the Rockies in the top of the first, the Diamondbacks responded with three runs of their own. Arizona went on to add another three runs in the 2nd inning.
Eduardo Rodriguez put together a good start for the Diamondbacks, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up just two runs on five hits. He also issued only one walk and struck out 11 Rockies batters. Corbin Carroll was hot at the plate, going 2/4 with two homers and three RBIs.
Arizona is on the road today vs. the Brewers with an overall record of 84-68, which has them 3rd in the NL West. Currently, they trail the Dodgers by six games for the division lead. So far, they have gone 26-20 in divisional games.
The Diamondbacks have an even 5-5 record over their last 10 games and closed out their series vs. the Rockies with a loss. This year, they are 42-33 at home compared to 42-35 on the road. As the favorite, the Diamondbacks are 49-30 and 35-38 as the underdog. Heading into today’s game, their overall series record is 26-19-4 and they dropped two straight series.
Arizona has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 78-74 overall. They have been especially good on the run line on the road, going 44-33. Their average run margin on the road is +0.5, compared to +0.7 at home. They have been a better bet on the run line as an underdog, going 45-28 compared to 33-46 as a favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +4.2, while it is -3.8 in losing games.
Arizona’s games have averaged 10.4 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 87-58. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, they have gone over 11 times, under 6 times, and pushed twice. Their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs this season, and 71.1% of their games have had higher lines than today’s 8-run total.
Right-hander Brandon Pfaadt is starting for the Diamondbacks today as he faces the Brewers on the road. Pfaadt has made 29 starts this season and has a record of 9-9 with a 4.81 ERA. His WHIP for the season is currently 1.27. In his 29 appearances, Pfaadt has turned in 12 quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Pfaadt took the loss, giving up eight earned runs in 1 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One positive note is that he has a 2.11 BB/9 figure compared to 8.64 strikeouts per nine innings.
Not only are the Diamondbacks the top-scoring team in the league at 5.5 runs per game, but they also have the best team on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. They are also near the top of the league in batting average and have the 4th best isolated power mark in the league. Arizona’s offense has been especially good at home, averaging 5.8 runs per game.
Ketel Marte and Eugenio Suárez have been the team’s top home run hitters this season, with Marte leading the team with 32 and Suárez right behind him at 28. Suárez also has the top RBI mark on the team at 97. Both players have been swinging the bat well of late, with Suárez hitting .714 over his last three games and Marte going 6/17 in his last five games.
The Brewers’s offense was carried by Rhys Hoskins in their most recent game vs. the Phillies. Hoskins went 2/3 with a homer and scored both of Milwaukee’s runs. The Brewers really needed his big game, as they only scored two runs in their json to the Phillies. Milwaukee was the -115 favorite at home going into the game.
Freddy Peralta started for the Brewers, going five innings and giving up just one run on two hits. He only had two strikeouts in the outing and took the loss. The Brewers’s bullpen was excellent, though, as they didn’t give up a run over the final four innings.
Milwaukee is hosting the Diamondbacks today with an overall record of 88-64, good for 1st place in the NL Central. They currently lead the Cardinals by 11 games for the division lead. The Brewers have gone 30-19 against other teams in the NL Central. Milwaukee’s overall record is split right down the middle between their home and road games, as they are 44-30 at home and 44-34 on the road.
The Brewers have won three straight series, and they are 28-17-4 in series play this year. As the favorite, the Brewers are 51-36 and 37-28 as the underdog. At home, they are an even 10-10 when listed as the underdog. Milwaukee took two of three from the Phillies in their most recent series and are 6-4 over their last 10 games.
When betting the run line on the Brewers, it’s been more profitable to take them as the underdog this season, as they have covered the run line in 44 of 65 games. They have been a better run line bet on the road, going 43-35 compared to 35-39 at home. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.6, while it’s -2.8 in losing games.
When the Milwaukee Brewers play at home, the over/under line is typically set at 8 runs, and the over/under record is 77-65. The Brewers have a combined run average of 8.8 runs per game, and when the line is set at 8 runs, their over/under record is 11-11-5. Overall, 53.9% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs or higher, and the under has hit in their last two games.
Milwaukee is sending right-hander Tobias Myers to the mound today vs. the Diamondbacks. He has made 23 starts this season and has a record of 8-5 with a 3.07 ERA. Myers’ WHIP for the season is currently 1.18, and he has turned in seven quality starts. In his last outing, Myers gave up four earned runs in six innings of work but still came away with the win. Before that, he had given up just one earned run in three straight outings. Myers has been much better at home, coming in with a 3-0 record and 3.47 ERA compared to 5-5 with a 3.27 ERA on the road.
William Contreras and Willy Adames have been two of the Brewers’ top power threats this season, as Contreras has 22 homers and Adames has gone deep 32 times. Adames’ 109 RBIs is 3rd in the league, and Contreras has driven in 90 runs, which is 2nd on the team and 14th in the MLB. Rhys Hoskins is also near the top of the Brewers’ home run leaderboard, but he is batting just .212 for the season.
Rhys Hoskins and Jackson Chourio have been swinging the bat well of late, with Hoskins going 6/21 in his last seven games, and Chourio has gone 9/33 in his last eight games. Both players have two homers in these stretches. Hoskins is also on a five-game hitting streak.
Our predicted final score for this Diamondbacks vs. Brewers matchup is 6-5 in favor of the Brewers. With the Brewers’ money line sitting at -101, we see this as a great value pick and would recommend locking in this bet.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Brandon Pfaadt is projected to finish with seven strikeouts, which is the third-best among starters today. As for Tobias Myers, he is projected to finish with five K’s, which ranks him 16th.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips
- Take the Diamondbacks on the moneyline
- The Brewers are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Yelich | Out | Back |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Rob Zastryzny | Out | Elbow |
| Bryse Wilson | Out | Oblique |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| Nick Mears | Out | Forearm |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Dunn | Out | Back |
Arizona Diamondbacks Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Sewald | Out | Neck |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | Out | Calf |
| Kyle Nelson | Out | Shoulder |
| Drey Jameson | Out | Elbow |
| Ryne Nelson | Out | Shoulder |
| Bryce Jarvis | Out | Elbow |
| Andrew Saalfrank | Out | Suspension |
