Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Preview
Thursday’s Braves vs Reds game has a first pitch set for 1:10 PM ET from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The forecast for the game calls for scattered clouds and temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Chris Sale will start for the Braves, while the Reds are going with Julian Aguiar. Atlanta is the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -206 compared to the Reds at +173. The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs, and the game will be televised on BSSO.
Both teams have been playing well of late, as the Braves are 82-70 and the Reds are 74-79. Atlanta is currently third in the NL East, while the Reds are fourth in the NL Central.
Check out BetCoco for Cincinnati Reds – Atlanta Braves odds
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves Trends and Key Stats
- The Braves are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Reds have gone 2-3 (SU) and 3-2 in their previous five home contests.
- Looking back on their last ten games as the favorite, the Braves are 5-5 straight-up and 4-6 vs. the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Reds have a 4-6 record against the runline and a 5-5 straight-up record in their last ten games.
The most recent game o of this Braves vs Reds series took place on the road for Atlanta. The Braves went into the matchup as -139 favorites and picked up a 7-1 win. Heading into the game, the Braves had won the first two games of the series.
Spencer Schwellenbach got the start for the Braves and went six innings while giving up just one run and striking out five. He picked up a win in the game, while Jakob Junis went six innings and gave up one earned run for the Reds.
Marcell Ozuna and Michael Harris II each homered for the Braves, while Gio Urshela went 2/4 with three RBIs. Matt Olson also had a two-hit game and drove in a run for Atlanta’s offense.
Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Prediction
The Braves are two games above .500 at 82-70 as they trail the Phillies by nine games in the NL East. Overall, they are 3rd in the NL East and have gone 24-22 against other teams in their division. Atlanta is looking to take the series from the Reds, and they are 26-17-7 in series record this year.
At home, the Braves have gone 42-33 this year, and they are just above .500 at 40-37 on the road. As the favorite, the Braves have gone 69-52 this year, and they are 13-18 when coming in as the underdog. Looking at their overall record, the Braves are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
When betting the run line for the Atlanta Braves this season, it’s been a good idea to take them on the road, where they have a 41-36 record. They’ve been a better bet as the underdog, going 18-13, and their average run margin in winning games is 3.7.
When the Braves are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, which is higher than their season average of 8.1 runs per game. Overall, the over/under record for Atlanta is 57-90, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, they have gone 14-26. In 45 of their games this season, the over/under line has been set higher than 8.5 runs, accounting for 29.6% of their games, while in 67 games, the line has been set lower than 8.5 runs, making up 44.1% of their games.
Chris Sale gets the start for the Braves today and comes in with a record of 17-3 and an ERA of 2.35. He has made 28 starts this year and has turned in 18 quality starts. Sale’s ERA is 2.42 on the road compared to 2.75 at home. The last time he pitched, Sale picked up the win, going six innings and giving up one earned run on five hits. Before that, he hadn’t given up an earned run in two straight outings. Sale’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.00.
So far this season, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road, averaging 4.7 runs per contest. Overall, they are the 6th ranked home run hitting team in the league and have a collective batting average of .241, which is 13th in the MLB. The Braves have been striking out at a rate of 9 per game, which is 22nd in the league.
Marcell Ozuna has been the Braves’ top hitter this season, batting .306 with 38 homers and 100 RBIs. He is also on a 4 game hitting streak. Over his last eight games, Michael Harris II has gone 11/36 with four home runs.
Cincinnati is 74-79 overall and is 14.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. So far, they have gone 21-25 in divisional games. The Reds are at home today, where they are 37-40 this season.
The Reds have gone 37-39 on the road this season. Cincinnati has an overall series record of 19-27-3 this year. They are 6-4 across their last 10 games and are coming off a win over the Braves in their most recent game.
The Reds have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 83-70 overall. They have been particularly profitable on the road, where they are 47-29 against the run line. As the underdog, they are 56-31 against the run line. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.8, while it is -3.3 in losing games.
When the Reds play at home, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, which is below their season average of 9 runs per game. Cincinnati’s over/under record for the season is 71-75, and their games have averaged 8.7 runs per game. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, the over/under record is 19-16.
Through six starts, Julian Aguiar has a record of 2-0 and an ERA of 4.88. He has made two quality starts this year and is coming off a start in which he picked up the win. Against the Twins on September 13th, Aguiar went 6 1/3 innings, giving up three earned runs, four walks, and two home runs. Looking back at his last three outings, Aguiar has finished with a no-decision in each one. His ERA at home is 10.12 compared to 2.94 on the road.
Elly De La Cruz has been a bright spot for the Reds offense this season, as he is batting .257 and leads the team with 24 home runs. He is also 2nd on the team in RBIs. Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are also tied for 2nd on the team in homers, but they are batting just .231 and .225, respectively. Steer does lead the Reds in RBIs, coming into the game as the league’s 13th leading run producer.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. Their team batting average is just 18th in the league, and they are also in the bottom half of the league in terms of slugging percentage and OPS. The team’s most recent hot hitter is TJ Friedl, who is 9/19 in his last five games.
With the Reds having a money line payout of +173 and our predicted final score being 5-4 in favor of the Reds, they are a great value pick to win straight up.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Chris Sale is projected to have a solid outing, but our projections have Julian Aguiar finishing with more strikeouts. Aguiar is projected to finish with four K’s, and offensively, the Reds lineup is projected to finish with nine hits compared to the Braves with eight.
Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Betting Tips
- Take the Braves on the moneyline
- On the run line we like Reds (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | Out | Toe |
| Sam Moll | Out | Shoulder |
| Will Benson | Questionable | Finger |
| Nick Lodolo | Out | Finger |
| Austin Wynns | Out | Teres Major |
| Nick Martini | Out | Thumb |
| Stuart Fairchild | Out | Thumb |
| Hunter Greene | Out | Elbow |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Elbow |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Roa | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Abbott | Out | Shoulder |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
Atlanta Braves Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Ozzie Albies | Out | Wrist |
| Reynaldo López | Out | Shoulder |
| A.J. Minter | Out | Hip |
| Austin Riley | Out | Hand |
| Huascar Ynoa | Out | Elbow |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | Out | Knee |
| Angel Perdomo | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Kerr | Out | Elbow |
| Spencer Strider | Out | Elbow |
