San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros Preview
From PETCO Park in San Diego, we have an interleague matchup between the Astros and Padres. The forecast for Tuesday calls for clear skies and temperatures in the high 60s. Houston is 81-69 and they are the top team in the AL West, while the Padres are 86-65 and they have won four straight.
The money line odds have the Astros at -103 compared to the Padres at -114, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs. Hunter Brown is starting for the Astros, while Michael King goes for the Padres.
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San Diego Padres vs. Houston Astros Trends and Key Stats
- 3-2 is the record of Astros in their last five road games. They have also gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- Conversely, the Padres have achieved a 4-1 (SU) record and 3-2 record in their last five home games.
- The Astros are 6-4 in their last ten games as the favorite and 3-7 as the underdog.
- In their last ten games, the Padres have a record of 6-4 as the favorite and 6-4 as the underdog.
San Diego picked up a 3-1 win over the Astros in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 1st inning, scoring all three of their runs. As for the Astros, they scored their only run in the 8th. Heading into the game, the Padres were favored at -118.
Yu Darvish pitched well for the Padres in this one, going six innings and striking out three without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Robert Suarez got the save. Spencer Arrighetti had a rough outing for the Astros, taking the loss.
Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill each homered for the Padres, while Manny Machado went 2/4 with an RBI. Luis Arraez also had a two-hit game at the plate.
San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros Prediction
The Astros are 81-69 overall this season and lead the AL West by four games over the Mariners. So far, they have gone 25-20 in divisional matchups. Houston is on a four-game winning streak as the favorite, and they are 63-49 when favored this year. As for their overall record as the favorite, the Astros are 26 games above .500 at 63-37.
At home, the Astros are 42-32 this year, and they have gone 39-37 on the road. Houston will be looking to even up their series vs. the Padres, having lost the first game of the series. Heading into today’s game, the Astros are 26-20-2 in series this year. Over their last 10 games, the Astros are 6-4.
When the Astros are on the road, they have been a solid run line bet, going 42-34. They have covered the run line in four straight games and are 25-13 as an underdog. Their average run margin in games they win is 3.7, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.1.
The Astros have played in 119 games with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs this season, and their games have averaged a combined 8.6 runs per game. Their over/under record is 61-84, and their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs. When the line has been set at 7.5 runs, the over/under record has been 9-17. Today’s over/under line is set at 7.5 runs.
Hunter Brown will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing as he gets the start for the Astros today. The right-hander’s most recent outing came against the Athletics, where he took the loss and gave up five earned runs in five innings of work. In that outing, he gave up seven hits and issued one walk. Before that start, Brown had put together three straight outings without taking the loss. He has a record of 11-8 this season and an ERA of 3.59. Brown’s WHIP for the season is 1.29, and opponents are batting .236 off him this year.
Yordan Alvarez has been the Astros’ top hitter this season, batting .308 with 34 home runs and 85 RBIs. He has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/37 in his last nine games. Alex Bregman has struggled in his last eight games, going just 6/34 with two homers. For the season, he is batting .254 with 23 homers.
As a team, the Astros are 3rd in batting average, averaging 4.6 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. Houston is also one of the best teams in terms of avoiding strikeouts, but they are just 25th in walks. Currently, they have three players in the top 5 in RBIs.
With an overall record of 86-65, the Padres are 3.5 games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. San Diego has won four straight games, and they are 24-22 against other teams in the NL West. The Padres took the first game of the series vs. the Astros and have an overall series record of 29-15-6.
At home, the Padres are 41-35 this season and 45-30 on the road. So far, they have been good as the favorite, going 56-41 and 30-24 as the underdog. Over their last 10 games, the Padres are 6-4.
San Diego is 30-46 against the run line at home this season, compared to 47-28 on the road. The Padres’ average run differential is +0.6 runs per game, but they have been outscored by 0.1 runs per game at home. They are 37-17 against the run line as an underdog and 40-57 as a favorite.
The Padres have played in 57.6% of their games with an over/under line of 7.5 runs this season. They have a combined run average of 8.9 runs per game, and their over/under record is 80-68. Their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 24-24, and their average over/under line for the season is 8 runs. Their current under streak is at 2 games.
Michael King gets the start for the Padres today and is coming off a rough outing against the Mariners, where he took the loss. In that start, he went 5 innings and gave up 3 runs on 4 hits. Looking back further, King has taken the loss in three straight outings and has a record of 12-9 this season with a 3.06 ERA. Opponents are batting .219 this season off King, and he has made 28 starts, 13 of which were quality starts. King’s ERA at home is 3.50 compared to 3.26 on the road.
Not only are the Padres the top hitting team in the league in terms of batting average, but they are also one of the league’s top-scoring offenses, averaging 4.8 runs per game. San Diego has been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. The Padres have been led by Manny Machado, who is 8th in the league with 99 RBIs and has gone deep 26 times this season. Machado’s 99 RBIs are the top mark on the team.
Over his last seven games, Luis Arraez has gone 16/32, and he is also on a 14-game hitting streak. For the season, he is batting .323 and has gone deep four times. Manny Machado has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/29 with four homers in his last seven games.
Our prediction for this Padres vs. Astros matchup is that the Padres will pick up a 6-5 win at home. Given that they are at -114 on the money line, this is the bet we would recommend.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Michael King finishing with five strikeouts, which is seventh worst among today’s starters. As for Hunter Brown, he is projected to finish with five K’s, which is ninth worst.
San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros Betting Tips
- We like the Padres on the moneyline (-114)
- The Padres are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
San Diego Padres Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez | Questionable | Lower Body |
| Jay Groome | Out | Suspension |
| Ha-Seong Kim | Out | Shoulder |
| Luis Patiño | Out | Elbow |
| Stephen Kolek | Out | Forearm |
Houston Astros Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Singleton | Probable | Illness |
| Kendall Graveman | Out | Shoulder |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Out | Forearm |
| Ben Gamel | Questionable | Knee |
| Cristian Javier | Out | Elbow |
| Luis Garcia | Out | Elbow |
| Chas McCormick | Out | Hand |
| Bennett Sousa | Out | Shoulder |
| José Urquidy | Out | Elbow |
| Penn Murfee | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Ortega | Out | Elbow |
| J.P. France | Out | Undisclosed |
