St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
From Busch Stadium in St. Louis, we have the Pirates and Cardinals facing off in an NL Central matchup. This one gets started at 7:45 PM ET, and the Cardinals are the betting favorite on the money line (-138). The money line odds for the Pirates are sitting at +118, and the over/under line is at 8 runs.
The forecast for Tuesday’s game calls for clear skies and temperatures in the low 90s. Bailey Falter is starting for the Pirates, and he is facing off against Lance Lynn. Pittsburgh is 5th in the NL Central, while the Cardinals are 3rd with a record of 75-75.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Trends and Key Stats
- The Pirates are 2-3 in their five most recent road games, including a 2-3 runline record.
- On the opposing side, the Cardinals have a 2-3 (SU) record, along with a 3-2 record in their last five home contests.
- The Cardinals have a straight-up record of 4-6 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 2-8 record vs. the runline.
- Looking at the Pirates’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 3-7 straight-up and 3-7 vs. the runline.
St. Louis cruised to a 4-0 win over the Pirates in the most recent game of this series. The Cardinals had a huge 8th inning, scoring two of their four runs and picking up a 4-1 win. Heading into the game, the Cardinals were at +112 on the money line.
Pittsburgh wasted a good outing from Paul Skenes, as he gave up just one run in six innings of work for the Pirates. Andre Pallante was excellent for the Cardinals, getting the win after going seven innings and not giving up a run.
Nolan Arenado was the only player in the game to have more than one hit, as he went 2/4 with an RBI. Isiah Kiner-Falefa had two hits for the Pirates.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
Pittsburgh is 71-79 overall, putting them 5th in the NL Central, 16 games behind the Brewers. So far, they are 22-21 against other teams in the NL Central. The Pirates dropped the series opener vs. the Cardinals and are 20-21-6 in series this year.
At home, the Pirates are 38-40 this year compared to 33-39 on the road. As the underdog, the Pirates are 37-51 this year, and they are 34-28 when favored. Pittsburgh’s two-game losing streak as the underdog is part of their overall mark of 5-5 in their last 10 games.
When the Pirates win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.2 runs per game. But when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.6 runs per game. That’s why they are just 81-69 against the run line this season. They are 43-29 on the run line on the road, but they have failed to cover in their last two road games.
When the Pittsburgh Pirates are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The Pirates and their opponents have combined to average 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 73-75. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, the Pirates have gone over 16 times and under 17 times. Overall, 50.0% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs, and their current under streak is at 3 games.
Left-hander Bailey Falter gets the start for the Pirates today as he faces the Cardinals on the road. He has made 25 starts this season and has a record of 8-7 with a 4.20 ERA. Falter’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.27. In his 25 starts, he has turned in eight quality starts and is averaging 6.23 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his most recent outing, Falter pitched 7 1/3 innings, picking up the win and not allowing a run. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. Opponents are batting .255 off Falter this season.
As a team, the Pirates are averaging just 4.2 runs per game, which is 21st in the MLB. Their team batting average of .235 is 18th in the league, and they are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and slugging percentage. One positive for the team is that they have the 8th best BABIP in the league. Currently, they are averaging 4.3 runs per game at home and 4 runs per game on the road.
Bryan Reynolds has been the Pirates’ top hitter this season, batting .280 with a team-high 22 home runs and 85 RBIs. Andrew McCutchen is 2nd on the team in homers (20) but is batting just .237 for the season. McCutchen has struggled of late, going 2/13 in his last four games. Jared Triolo has gone 7/19 in his last six games.
St. Louis is right at .500 with a record of 75-75, and they trail the Brewers by 12 games in the NL Central. The Cardinals are 24-25 against other teams in the division. St. Louis is coming off a series loss to the Reds but did win the final game of the series.
At home, the Cardinals are 40-35 this season and 35-40 on the road. As the favorite, the Cardinals are 35-35 and 40-40 as the underdog. St. Louis’ overall series record is 23-20-5, and they have won two straight games as the favorite.
St. Louis is 37-38 on the run line at home, and 38-37 on the road. The Cardinals have covered the run line in two straight games at home, and are 23-47 on the run line this season as the favorite. They are 52-28 on the run line as the underdog.
St. Louis is 11-16-1 when the O/U line is set at 8 runs, and the under has hit in two straight games. The Cardinals’ games have averaged 8.6 runs per game this season, and their O/U record is 70-76 overall. Today’s O/U line is set at 8 runs, which is the average line for St. Louis games this year. The Cardinals have played 82 games with O/U lines set higher than 8 runs, which is 54.7% of their games. They’ve played 40 games with O/U lines set lower than 8 runs, which is 26.7% of their games.
Lance Lynn has made 22 starts this season and has a record of 6-4 with an ERA of 3.96. Coming into the game, he has a WHIP of 1.36 and has issued 3.4 walks per nine innings compared to 8.41 strikeouts. Lynn has made six quality starts this year and is unbeaten at home, going 5-0 with a 3.62 ERA. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up one earned run in five innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
The Cardinals offense comes into the game averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 25th in the league. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.2 runs per game. As a team, the Cardinals are batting .246, which is 11th in the league. St. Louis has been led in home runs by both Alec Burleson and Paul Goldschmidt, who each have 21 homers this season.
Brendan Donovan has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/23 in his last seven games with a home run and three RBIs. For the season, he is batting .270 with 12 homers. Masyn Winn and Alec Burleson are also both batting .270, with Burleson leading the team with 73 RBIs.
Our pick for this Pirates vs. Cardinals matchup is to take the Pirates on the money line, with the payout sitting at +118. We actually have the Pirates winning this one by a score of 5-4, giving us some room to take them on the money line or even on the run line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Lance Lynn is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is good for 14th among starters. As for Bailey Falter, he is projected to finish with just three strikeouts, the lowest among all starters today.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips
- We like the Pirates on the moneyline (+118)
- The Pirates are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras | Out | Finger |
| Keynan Middleton | Out | Forearm |
| Drew Rom | Out | Biceps |
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Out | Elbow |
| Marco Gonzales | Out | Forearm |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | Out | Back |
| Ben Heller | Out | Shoulder |
| Daulton Jefferies | Out | Elbow |
| Oneil Cruz | Questionable | Ankle |
| Dauri Moreta | Out | Elbow |
| Kyle Nicolas | Questionable | Side |
| Henry Davis | Out | Hand |
| Hunter Stratton | Out | Knee |
| Endy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
