Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Betting Tips 9/17/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview

At 7:40 PM ET, the Phillies and Brewers square off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at American Family Field in Milwaukee, and the Phillies are the favorites on the money line (-141). The Brewers have a money line odds of +120 compared to their NL Central rivals.

Phillies starter Zack Wheeler will face off against Frankie Montas for the Brewers. The Phillies are 1st in the NL East, while the Brewers are leading the NL Central with a record of 87-63.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats

• 2-3 is the record of Phillies in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
• On the opposing side, the Brewers have a 3-2 (SU) record, along with a 4-1 record in their last five home contests.
• Over their last ten games, the Phillies have a 6-4 straight-up record when playing as the favorite, along with a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
• When playing as the underdog, the Brewers have a 4-6 record against the runline and a 6-4 straight-up record in their last ten games.

It was all Milwaukee in the last game of this series, as the Brewers took down the Phillies by a score of 6-2. The Brewers offense only had two more hits than the Phillies and struck out seven times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were at -108 on the money line.

This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Aaron Civale for the Brewers and Ranger Suarez for the Phillies. Civale only went five innings but gave up just one hit and one earned run. On the other side, Suarez was tagged for three homers and three runs in five innings of work.

Milwaukee’s two homers came from Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang. Ortiz, Turang, and William Contreras each had two RBIs for the Brewers’ offense.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Philadelphia leads the NL East by eight games over the Mets with an overall record of 90-60. The Phillies will be on the road today, facing the Brewers, and they are 27-18 in divisional games this year. So far, they have dropped the first game of the series vs. the Brewers.

At home, the Phillies have gone 52-26 this year, and they are just above .500 at 38-34 on the road. As the favorite, the Phillies have gone 77-45 this year, and they are 13-15 as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Phillies are 27-16-7 and have won two straight series.

When the Phillies are on the road, they are a solid bet against the run line, going 37-35. Their average run margin in road games is +0.4, but they have lost three straight against the run line.

Oddsmakers have set the over/under line at 7.5 runs for today’s game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers. The Phillies’ games have averaged 8.9 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 70-72. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, their record is 13-14. Overall, 73.3% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs.

Right-hander Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Brewers on the road. Wheeler has made 29 starts this season and has a record of 15-6 with a 2.60 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Wheeler has a WHIP of .97 and has pitched 179 2/3 innings. He has turned in 23 quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he gave up two earned runs in six innings of work. Wheeler won that game, giving up just four hits and three walks. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

Philadelphia comes into today’s game as one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is good for 5th in the MLB. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are the 4th best hitting team in the league, with a team batting average of .258. The Phillies are also among the league leaders in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.

Over his last five games, Bryce Harper has gone 5/18 with two homers and three RBIs. For the season, he is batting .290 and has 28 homers, which is 2nd on the team. Alec Bohm is also having a strong season at the plate, with a batting average of .287 and 13 homers. Kyle Schwarber has been a big power threat for the Phillies, as he has gone deep 35 times this season, which is 7th best in the league.

Milwaukee is 87-63 overall this season, and they lead the NL Central by 10 games over the Cubs. So far, they have gone 30-19 against other teams in the NL Central. The Brewers are at home today, where they are 43-29 this year. They have been even better on the road, going 44-34.

This season, the Brewers have been the favorite in 86 of their games, going 50-36 in those matchups. As the underdog, they are 37-27 this season. Milwaukee has an overall series record of 27-17-4 this year and have won two straight series. At home, they have dropped two straight series.

When the Brewers win, they do so by an average of 3.6 runs per game, which is the best in the National League. That’s why they’re 44-20 against the run line as an underdog. Their overall run line record is 78-72, and they have a run line win streak of four games as the underdog. They’re 35-37 against the run line at home and 43-35 on the road.

When the Milwaukee Brewers are at home, the over has been a popular bet. Their games have had an average combined run total of 8.8 runs per game this season. Their over/under record is 77-63, and the average over/under line for their games is set at 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 22-13. Overall, 72.7% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs.

Frankie Montas will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. In that outing vs. the Giants, he went six innings and gave up just two hits. Looking at his overall numbers, Montas has made 27 starts and has a record of 7-10. His ERA for the season is 4.49, along with a WHIP of 1.34. Opposing batters are hitting .231 off Montas this season. Montas has made nine quality starts this year and is averaging 8.33 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has allowed 18 home runs. At home, Montas is 1-6 with a 5.30 ERA.

Willy Adames has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 32 homers are 1st on the team and 9th in the league. Adames is also 2nd on the Brewers with 109 RBIs. However, Adames is coming off a stretch in which he hit just .211 over his last 10 games. William Contreras has been a strong #3 hitter for the Brewers, batting .281 with 22 homers.

As a team, the Brewers are 4th in the league in runs per game (4.9) and have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting .250, which is 7th in the MLB.

There is a lot of value on the Brewers in this one, as they are currently listed at +120 to win this game and our predicted score is 5-4 in favor of the Brewers. Frankie Montas is projected to finish with seven strikeouts, which is the third-best among starters today.

As for Zack Wheeler, he is projected to finish with seven strikeouts, and his chances of picking up a win are not as good as Montas, coming in as the third best among starters. If you’re looking for a parlay, you could also look to take the over, as the line is sitting at 7.5 runs, and we have this one finishing with a combined nine runs.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips

• We like the Brewers on the moneyline (+120)
• The Brewers are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report