New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Preview
The Nationals and Mets face off in an NL East matchup at 7:10 PM ET at Citi Field in New York. The money line odds have the Nationals at +139, while the Mets are the favorite at -163. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.
Tylor Megill is starting for the Mets, and he is facing a Nationals team that is 68-82. The Nationals are starting Mitchell Parker. New York is 2nd in the NL East, while the Nationals are 4th. SNY is carrying this game on TV.
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New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Nationals have recorded a 2-3 record, with a 3-2 performance on the runline.
- The Mets, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 2-3 (SU) and 3-2 record.
- The Mets have a straight-up record of 7-3 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Nationals have a 3-7 straight-up record and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
New York picked up a 2-1 win over the Nationals in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a late rally, scoring one run in the 8th and another run in the 10th. As for the Nationals, they scored their only run in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Mets were favored at -201 on the money line.
Sean Manaea got the start for the Mets, going seven innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued a season-high seven walks. Reed Garrett came out of the bullpen for the win. Jake Irvin put together a good outing for the Nationals, giving up just one run in 7 1/3 innings of work.
Jose Iglesias was the difference for the Mets, as he went 2/4 with an RBI. Washington’s only run came on a Juan Soto homer. Soto finished the game 2/4.
New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction
With an overall record of 68-82, the Nationals are 4th in the NL East and trail the Phillies by 22 games for the division lead. So far, they have gone 23-24 in divisional matchups. The Nationals are on the road today, and they have a road record of 32-43 compared to 36-39 at home.
Washington has dropped two straight road games, and they are 28-39 as the road underdog this season. The Nationals’ overall series record is 19-22-6, and they are currently losing their series vs. the Mets, having dropped the first game.
The Nationals are 84-66 against the run line this season. Their average run margin is -0.5 runs per game. They are 44-31 against the run line on the road. The average run margin in their winning games is +3.3 runs per game, while the average run margin in their losing games is -3.7 runs per game. As the underdog, they are 71-51 against the run line.
The Washington Nationals are on the road against the New York Mets today, and the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Nationals games this season is 8.9, and their over/under record is 70-74. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, their record is 16-10. Overall, 81.3% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, and their current under streak is at 4 games.
Washington is sending left-hander Mitchell Parker to the mound today vs. the Mets. Parker has made 27 starts this season and has a record of 7-9 with an ERA of 4.24. So far, he has turned in 11 quality starts and is averaging 8.03 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Parker went 6 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, and finished with a no-decision. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight starts. Parker has an ERA of 11.06 on the road compared to 3.49 at home.
For the season, the Nationals are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 22nd in the league. They have been slightly better on the road, averaging 4.2 runs per game, compared to 4.1 at home. As a team, they are batting .243, which is 12th in the league, but they have the 26th most home runs in the league.
Luis Garcia Jr. and CJ Abrams have been the Nationals’ top home run hitters this season, with 16 and 20 home runs, respectively. Both players also have 65 RBIs, which is the best mark on the team. Currently, James Wood is batting just .222 over his last five games, but he does have two home runs during that stretch.
The Mets are 82-68 overall this season, which has them 2nd in the NL East. Currently, they are eight games behind the Phillies for the division lead. New York took the first game of their series vs. the Nationals and have an overall series record of 25-17-8 this year.
At home, the Mets are 41-34 this year, and they are also 41-34 on the road. New York has been favored in 91 of their games, going 54-37 in those games. As for their matchups as the underdog, they are 28-31 this year. The Mets’ overall record includes going 6-4 in their last 10 games.
When the Mets win, they tend to win big, with an average run margin of 3.6 runs per game. But when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.4 runs per game. That’s why their run line record is at .500 overall, as well as at home and on the road. They have been an underdog more often than a favorite, and their run line record as an underdog is 35-24.
The Mets have played to an over/under record of 74-71 this season, with an average combined run total of 9.0. Their average over/under line for the season is 8 runs, but when the line is set at 7.5 runs, they have gone over 18 times and under 16 times. Overall, 70% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs. The under has hit in their last two games.
New York is sending Tylor Megill to the mound today vs. the Nationals, and he will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run. Against the Blue Jays on September 9th, Megill went 6 innings, giving up just one hit and two walks. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. Overall, Megill has made 12 starts and 13 appearances. His record for the season is 3-5, and he has an ERA of 4.48. The right-hander has a WHIP of 1.32 and is averaging 10.54 strikeouts per nine innings.
Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been a strong 1-2 punch in the Mets lineup this season, as Lindor leads the team with 86 RBIs and Alonso is right behind him with 81. Alonso is also the team’s leader in home runs and comes into the game as the 9th leading home run hitter in the league. Lindor has been hot of late, going 4/20 in his last six games with two homers.
Overall, the Mets are 5th in home runs this season and are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 9th in the MLB. As a team, they are batting .247 and have the league’s 10th best on-base percentage. New York’s offense has been even better on the road this season, averaging 4.9 runs per contest.
Our predicted final score for this game is 5-4 in favor of the Mets. However, with the Mets being -163 on the money line, we are recommending taking the over at 7.5 runs. You can get the over at -121, and we have the Mets and Nationals combining for nine runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Tylor Megill is projected to finish with six strikeouts compared to Mitchell Parker, who we have with six as well. If you’re looking for a player prop bet, you could look at the over/under for strikeouts for either of these pitchers.
New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Betting Tips
- Take the Mets on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Nationals (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | Probable | Forearm |
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Francisco Lindor | Questionable | Back |
| Jeff McNeil | Out | Wrist |
| Paul Blackburn | Out | Back |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Calf |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Dedniel Núñez | Out | Forearm |
| Christian Scott | Out | Elbow |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Washington Nationals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Alex Call | Out | Foot/Ankle |
| Mason Thompson | Out | Elbow |
| Josiah Gray | Out | Elbow |
| Joan Adon | Out | Shoulder/Biceps |
| CJ Abrams | Questionable | Shoulder |
| Cade Cavalli | Out | Elbow |
