San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros Prediction & Betting Tips 9/16/2024

San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros Preview

The Astros and Padres face off in an interleague matchup at 9:40 PM ET at PETCO Park in San Diego. The forecast for Monday’s game calls for scattered clouds and temperatures in the upper 60s. Houston is 81-68 and they are on a four-game winning streak. The Astros are 1st in the AL West. San Diego has an overall record of 85-65 and they are 2nd in the NL West. The Padres are favored on the money line (-139), and the over/under line is currently 8 runs.

Yu Darvish will start for the Padres, while the Astros are sending Spencer Arrighetti to the mound. Arrighetti is facing an uphill battle, as he is +118 on the money line compared to the Padres, who are -139. Darvish has pitched well this season, and he will be facing an Astros lineup that has scored 4.6 runs per game.

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San Diego Padres vs. Houston Astros Trends and Key Stats

• Across their last five road games, the Astros are 3-2. This includes going 3-2 vs. the runline.
• On the opposing side, the Padres have a 4-1 (SU) record, along with a 3-2 record in their last five home contests.
• As the favorite, the Padres are 6-4 over their last ten games, including going 4-6 vs. the runline.
• When playing as the underdog, the Astros have won 3-7 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 7-3 against the runline.

San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros Prediction

Houston closed out their series vs. the Angels with a 6-4 win on the road. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -202. Offensively, the Astros scored their six runs on eight hits and only hit one home run. It was Jason Heyward going 3/3 with a homer and two RBIs.

Ronel Blanco got the start for the Astros, going six innings, and didn’t give up a run. He also issued just two walks and struck out five Angels batters. Houston’s bullpen closed things out, and Josh Hader picked up the save.

Houston is on the road today to take on the Padres, having won four straight games. The Astros are 81-68 overall, which has them leading the AL West by 4.5 games over the Mariners. So far, they are 25-20 in divisional games.

The Astros have been good at home this year, going 42-32, and they are just above .500 at 39-36 on the road. As the road underdog, the Astros have gone 15-14 this season, and they have won three straight as the road underdog. Houston’s overall series record is 26-20-2.

When the Astros are on the road, they have a run line record of 42-33 and have covered the run line in their last three games. Their average run margin is +0.6 runs per game, and they have a +0.2 run margin on the road. As the favorite, they are 52-60 against the run line, while as the underdog, they are 25-12.

The Houston Astros are on the road today against the San Diego Padres. The O/U line for the game is set at 8 runs, which is slightly lower than their combined season average of 8.6 runs per game. The Astros have a record of 61-83 on the over/under line this season, and their games have averaged an O/U line of 9 runs. When the O/U line has been set at 8 runs, their record is 13-13-2.

Houston is sending right-hander Spencer Arrighetti to the mound today vs. the Padres. He has made 26 starts this year and has a record of 7-12 with an ERA of 4.72. Arrighetti’s WHIP for the season is 1.42. In his 26 appearances, he has turned in nine quality starts. Arrighetti’s ERA on the road is 8.51, and he has a record of 4-7 away from home. At home, he is 3-5 with a 6.98 ERA. The right-hander’s most recent outing came on September 10th, where he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work.

Yordan Alvarez has been the Astros’ top hitter this season, leading the team with a .308 batting average and 34 home runs. He also has 84 RBIs, which is the best mark on the team. Jose Altuve has also been a key contributor, batting .301 with 19 homers and 63 RBIs. Alex Bregman is 2nd on the team with 23 homers but has a batting average of just .256.

Alvarez has gone deep twice in his last six games, but he is just 6/25 in that span. Jason Heyward has gone 5/11 in his last five games, including two homers. Heyward is also on a three-game hitting streak for the Astros.

The Padres’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Giants, closing out their series with a 4-3 win. After allowing one run to the Giants in the bottom of the first, the Padres responded with a run of their own. San Diego went on to add another three runs in the 6th inning.

Martin Perez put together a good start for the Padres, going five innings and giving up just one earned run, and picking up the win. San Diego’s bullpen closed things out, and Adrian Morejon picked up the save. The Padres also got a big game from Fernando Tatis Jr., going 1/1 with a homer and three RBIs.

San Diego is 85-65 overall this season, and they trail the Dodgers by 3.5 games in the NL West. The Padres have won three straight games, and they closed out their series vs. the Giants with three straight wins. So far, they are 24-22 in divisional games.

At home, the Padres are 40-35 this season, and they are 45-30 on the road. As the favorite, the Padres are 55-41 this year and 30-24 as the underdog. San Diego has an overall series record of 29-15-6 this season.

San Diego has been a solid run line bet on the road this season, going 47-28. However, they have not been a good bet at home, going just 29-46 on the run line. Their average run differential is +0.6 runs per game overall, but it drops to -0.1 runs per game at home. They have covered the run line in 37 of 54 games as an underdog, but just 39 of 96 as a favorite.

San Diego Padres games have had an average of 9.0 runs scored per game this season, and their over/under record is 80-67. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 12-15-1. So far, 39.3% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs, with the remaining 42.0% having lines set lower than 8 runs.

Yu Darvish gets the start for the Padres today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just two earned runs and picked up the win. In that outing against the Mariners, he went five innings and gave up seven hits. Looking back over his last four outings, Darvish has finished with a no-decision, loss, and then a win in his most recent outing. Darvish’s ERA for the season is 3.52, along with a record of 5-3. Opponents are batting .225 off Darvish this season. So far, he has made three quality starts.

San Diego comes into today’s game with the league’s top batting average at .265 and are also the top home run hitting team in the league. Overall, they are 7th in the league in runs scored at 4.8 runs per game. The Padres have been even better on the road this season, averaging 5.1 runs per contest.

Over the team’s last eight games, Luis Arraez has gone 18/37 and is currently on a 13-game hitting streak. For the season, he is batting .322 with an on-base percentage of .356. Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill have also been key run producers for the Padres, as Machado’s 98 RBIs are 8th best in the league, and Merrill is 2nd on the team with 85 RBIs.

Our predicted final score for this one is 6-5 in favor of the Padres. With the Padres picking up the win, we would recommend taking them on the money line, where the payout is -139.

Looking at some potential player props, Yu Darvish is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which would have him finishing with the sixth-lowest total among starters. As for Spencer Arrighetti, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which would have him finishing with the sixth-highest total among starters.

San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros Betting Tips

• Take the Padres on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Astros (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

San Diego Padres Injury Report

Houston Astros Injury Report