San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction & Betting Tips 9/14/2024

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Preview

Joe Musgrove will get the start for the Padres on Saturday, and he is facing off against Mason Black and the Giants. This NL West matchup has the Padres as the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -155 compared to the Giants at +131. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs.

The forecast for Saturday’s game in San Francisco calls for temperatures in the mid 60s and partly cloudy skies. The Padres are 83-65 this season, while the Giants are 72-76. San Francisco has lost two straight and is 4th in the NL West. The Padres are +2.5 games back of the Dodgers for first place.

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San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres Trends and Key Stats

• The Padres are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
• On the opposing side, the Giants have a 2-3 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
• Looking back on their last ten games as the favorite, the Padres are 5-5 straight-up and 3-7 vs. the runline.
• The Giants have a 4-6 record vs. the runline and a 7-3 straight-up record in their last ten games as the underdog.

San Diego cruised to a 5-0 win over the Giants in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 1st inning, scoring three of their five runs. As for the Giants, they had their best chance to score in the 4th, but could only muster one run. Heading into the game, the Padres were favored at -122 on the money line.

Dylan Cease got the win for the Padres, going six innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with 10 strikeouts but issued two walks. Logan Webb had a rough outing for the Giants, taking the loss after going just four innings and giving up three earned runs.

Fernando Tatis Jr. and Luis Arraez each had two RBIs for the Padres’ offense. Tatis, Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, and Jurickson Profar each had two hits and scored a run for San Diego.

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction

San Diego is 83-65 overall this season, and they are 4.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. The Padres are 22-22 in divisional games this year. The Padres are on the road today, and they have gone 43-30 on the road compared to 40-35 at home.

So far, the Padres have been the favorite in most of their games, where they are 53-41 this year. As the underdog, San Diego has gone 30-24 this year. The Padres’ overall series record is 28-14-6, and they are currently up 1-0 in their series vs. the Giants.

San Diego has been a solid run line bet on the road this season, going 46-27. The Padres have an average run margin of 1.1 runs per game away from Petco Park, compared to a run line record of 29-46 at home. They have been a better run line bet as the underdog, going 37-17, compared to 38-56 as the favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.7, while it’s -3.5 in losses.

San Diego has played a high-scoring brand of baseball this season, as their games have averaged 9.0 runs per game. Their over/under record is 79-66, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, their over/under record is 23-23. In 58.1% of their games, the over/under line has been set higher than 7.5 runs.

Right-hander Joe Musgrove gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Giants on the road. Musgrove has made 16 starts this season and has a record of 5-5 with a 4.54 ERA. In his last outing, Musgrove took the loss, going 4 1/3 innings and giving up six earned runs, seven hits, and one homer to the Giants. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Musgrove’s WHIP for the season is 1.28, and opponents are batting .262 off him this year. Out of his 16 starts, Musgrove has seven quality starts, and his ERA at home is 5.0 compared to 6.19 on the road.

San Diego’s offense has been one of the league’s best this season, as they are leading the MLB with a team batting average of .264. They are also the league’s top home run hitting team and have the fewest strikeouts in the league. Overall, they are averaging 4.8 runs per game, but that number jumps up to 5.1 runs per game when they are on the road.

Luis Arraez has been on fire of late, going 17/36 over his last eight games. For the season, he is batting .320 with four homers. Manny Machado is also swinging a hot bat right now, as he has three homers in his last eight games and is batting .303 in that stretch. Machado’s 95 RBIs are the best mark on the team and 10th best in the league.

The Giants are 72-76 overall and trail the Dodgers by 15.5 games in the NL West. So far, they have gone 24-23 in divisional games. San Francisco will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak today, and they dropped the first game of the series vs. the Padres.

At home, the Giants are 41-35 this season compared to 31-41 on the road. As the underdog, the Giants are 27-44 this year, and they have gone 45-32 as the favorite. San Francisco’s series record is 21-21-4, and they are 8-14 as the home underdog this year.

The Giants are 33-43 against the run line at home this season, with an average run margin of +0.2 runs per game. They are 40-32 against the run line on the road, with an average run margin of -0.5 runs per game. As the underdog, they are 41-30 against the run line, compared to 32-45 as the favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.2 runs, while it is -3.2 runs in losing games.

When the San Francisco Giants play at home, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, and their games have averaged 8.6 runs per game this season. Overall, the over/under record for Giants games is 74-68, and their games have had an average line of 8 runs. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, the over/under record is 29-25. The over has hit in 50% of their games this season when the line is set at 7.5 runs. Their games have had an over/under line of 7.5 runs in 74 of their games, and the under has hit in the last two games.

Through five starts, Mason Black has yet to pick up a win, as he is 0-3 with a 7.50 ERA. Black’s WHIP for the season is 1.62. In his most recent outing, Black took the loss, going 4 2/3 innings and giving up four earned runs on six hits. He also allowed one home run in that outing. Black has given up a homer in three straight starts. Opponents are batting .301 off Black this season. The right-hander has a BB/9 figure of 3 compared to 8.25 strikeouts per nine innings.

For the season, the Giants are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 17th in the league. They have been a bit better in terms of power, as their 157 home runs are also 17th in the MLB. San Francisco’s offense is batting a collective .239, which is 15th in the league. Heading into the game, LaMonte Wade Jr. is on a four-game hitting streak.

Over the past six games, Matt Chapman and Mike Yastrzemski have each hit two home runs, but Chapman is just 5/22 in that stretch, and Yastrzemski is 3/18. Jerar Encarnacion has gone 5/15 in his last four games, including two homers.

Our pick for today’s Padres vs. Giants game is to take the Giants on the money line, where they are currently listed at +131. We actually have the Giants winning this game by a final score of 6-5.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Mason Black finishing with seven strikeouts compared to Joe Musgrove with six. However, we have Musgrove finishing with a better chance of picking up a win compared to Black.

Offensively, the Giants lineup is projected to finish with 11 hits compared to the Padres with nine. And in terms of home runs, the Giants are projected to finish with the second-most in the league today, with the Padres 11th.

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Betting Tips

• Take the Padres on the moneyline
• The Giants are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

San Francisco Giants Injury Report

San Diego Padres Injury Report