Minnesota Twins vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
At 7:10 PM ET, the Reds and Twins face off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Target Field in Minneapolis, and the Reds are 72-77 compared to the Twins, who are 78-69.
MLB Network is televising Saturday’s Reds vs. Twins matchup, and the Twins are favored on the money line, with the odds sitting at -153. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and Nick Martinez gets the start for the Reds, while the Twins are starting Simeon Woods Richardson.
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Minnesota Twins vs. Cincinnati Reds Trends and Key Stats
- 3-2 is the record of Reds in their last five road games. They have also gone 4-1 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Twins have gone 1-4 (SU) and 0-5 in their previous five home contests.
- The Twins have a straight-up record of 5-5 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 2-8 record vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Reds have a straight-up record of 6-4 and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.
Cincinnati picked up an 8-4 win over the Twins in the most recent game of this series. The Reds had a huge 7th inning, scoring six of their eight runs. As for the Twins, they scored their four runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Reds were at +200 on the money line.
Julian Aguiar got the win for the Reds, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up three earned runs. Bailey Ober struggled on the mound for the Twins, giving up five earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. He did finish the game with six strikeouts.
At the plate, the Reds were led by TJ Friedl, who went 3/4 with a home run and three RBIs. Both Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer each drove in two for Cincinnati’s offense.
Minnesota Twins vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
Cincinnati is 72-77 overall this season, and they are 14.0 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. So far, they have gone 21-25 in divisional games. The Reds are on the road today, taking on the Twins, and they lead the series 1-0.
At home, the Reds are 36-39 this year, and they are just above .500 at 36-38 on the road. This season, they are 33-33 as the favorite and 39-44 as the underdog. Cincinnati’s overall series record is 18-27-3, and they are 6-4 across their last 10 games overall.
The Reds have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 81-68 overall. They have been especially good on the road, going 46-28 against the run line. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 54-29 against the run line in those games. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.7, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.2.
The Reds are on the road against the Twins today, and the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. Cincinnati’s games have averaged 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 68-74. When the line has been set at 8.5 runs, their record is 17-15. Overall, 48.3% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8.5 runs.
Cincinnati is sending right-hander Nick Martinez to the mound today vs. the Twins. Martinez has made 13 starts this year and has a record of 8-6 with a 3.46 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Martinez has pitched much better on the road, coming in with a record of 4-2 and an ERA of 2.78. At home, his record is 4-4, and his ERA is 3.74. Martinez’s most recent outing was a gem, as he went seven innings vs. the Braves, giving up no runs and picking up the win. Before that, he had given up at least one earned run in four straight outings.
Elly De La Cruz comes into the game as the Reds’ top home run hitter this season, and he is also 2nd on the team in RBIs. However, he has struggled a bit at the plate of late, batting just .222 over his last 10 games. Spencer Steer is the team’s top run producer, as his 86 RBIs are 15th in the league, and he has 19 homers this season.
Overall, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. They have been a very consistent offense, as they are 15th in home runs, and have the 13th best team batting average. Currently, they have two players on three-game hitting streaks in Nick Martini and Jonathan India.
With a record of 78-69, the Twins are 3rd in the AL Central, trailing the Guardians by 5.5 games. So far, they have gone 28-20 in divisional matchups. The Twins have lost seven of their last ten games and dropped the first game of this series vs. the Reds.
At home, the Twins are 41-32 this season compared to 37-37 on the road. This year, they have really thrived as the favorite, going 62-40. As for their record as the home favorite, they are 34-25 this season. Minnesota’s overall series record is 26-17-4.
Minnesota has been a solid run line bet this season, going 68-79 overall. They have been a better bet on the road, going 37-37, compared to 31-42 at home. As the favorite, they are 45-57 against the run line, while they are 23-22 as the underdog. Their average run differential for the season is +0.3 runs per game.
The Minnesota Twins are playing host to the Cincinnati Reds today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Twins have seen a combined average of 9.1 runs scored in their games this season, and their over/under record is 74-67. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, their record is 22-22, and they have gone over the line in three straight games.
Right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson gets the start for the Twins today as he faces the Reds at home. He has made 25 starts this season and has a record of 5-4 with a 3.96 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Woods Richardson has a WHIP of 1.22 and has allowed a total of 14 home runs. In his last outing, he took the loss, going 4 1/3 innings and giving up two earned runs on three hits. Before that, he had pitched well, going 5 innings and giving up just one earned run in a win over the Padres. Per nine innings, Woods Richardson is averaging 7.63 strikeouts and 3.1 walks.
As a team, the Twins are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. So far, they have been even better at home, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Overall, they are one of the top home run hitting teams in the league, coming in at 9th in the league. Collectively, the Twins are batting .249, which is 9th in the MLB.
Carlos Santana has been the Twins’ top power threat this season, as he is 1st on the team with 21 homers and also leads the team with 63 RBIs. However, he is batting just .239 this season. Willi Castro and Ryan Jeffers are also near the top of the Twins’ home run rankings, with 11 and 20 homers, respectively. Over his last seven games, Kyle Farmer is hitting .500 with three homers.
Our prediction for this Reds vs. Twins matchup is that the Twins will pick up a 5-4 win at home. With the money line sitting at -153, this is the best way to go about placing a bet on this game.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Simeon Woods Richardson finishing with five strikeouts compared to Nick Martinez with four. Martinez is projected to give up four earned runs, while Woods Richardson is predicted to allow three.
Minnesota Twins vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips
- Take the Twins on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Reds (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Minnesota Twins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Out | Elbow |
| Max Kepler | Out | Knee |
| Carlos Correa | Out | Heel |
| Alex Kirilloff | Out | Back |
| Chris Paddack | Out | Forearm |
| Brock Stewart | Out | Undisclosed |
| Justin Topa | Out | Knee |
| Joe Ryan | Out | Teres Major |
| Daniel Duarte | Out | Elbow |
| Kody Funderburk | Out | Oblique |
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | Out | Toe |
| Sam Moll | Out | Shoulder |
| Will Benson | Questionable | Hand |
| Nick Lodolo | Out | Finger |
| Austin Wynns | Out | Teres Major |
| Nick Martini | Out | Thumb |
| Stuart Fairchild | Out | Thumb |
| Hunter Greene | Out | Elbow |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Roa | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Abbott | Out | Shoulder |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
