Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction & Betting Tips 9/12/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Preview

At 7:15 PM ET, the Rays and Guardians will face off in an AL matchup. This one is being played at Progressive Field in Cleveland, and the Guardians are the betting favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -142. The money line odds for a Rays win are currently at +121. The over/under line is at 8 runs.

Tampa Bay will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak, as they are 71-75 and 4th in the AL East. The Guardians have won three straight and are 1st in the AL Central with an overall record of 84-62. Ryan Pepiot will start for the Rays, while Gavin Williams goes for the Guardians. FOX is carrying this game on TV.

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Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays Trends and Key Stats

• The Rays are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 4-1 vs. the runline.
• On the other side, the Guardians have gone 3-2 (SU) and 3-2 in their previous five home contests.
• Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Guardians have a straight-up record of 8-2, while going 8-2 against the runline.
• Looking at the Rays’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 4-6 straight-up and 8-2 vs. the runline.

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

The Rays will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Phillies with a 3-2 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 7th inning before the Phillies scored two runs in the bottom of the 7th. Tampa Bay was the +191 underdog going into this road game.

Shane Baz got the start for the Rays and took the loss. He pitched well, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up just two runs on three hits. The Rays’ offense was carried by Jonathan Aranda, who went 2/3 with a homer and scored both of their runs.

Tampa Bay is 71-75 overall and trails the Yankees by 13 games in the AL East. The Rays have dropped three straight games, losing the final three games of their series vs. the Phillies. So far this year, they are 19-24 in AL East games.

As the road team today, the Rays are 34-37 this season. They have been just above .500 at home, going 37-38. As the underdog, the Rays are 36-45 this year, and they are 35-30 when favored. Tampa Bay’s overall series record is 22-19-6, and they are 4-6 in their last 10 games.

The Rays have been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 75-71 overall. They have been particularly strong on the road, where they are 41-30 against the run line. As the underdog, they have been especially profitable, going 51-30 against the run line. Their average run differential in wins is +2.8, compared to -3.4 in losses.

When the Tampa Bay Rays are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The Rays’ games have averaged 8.1 runs this season, and their over/under record is 65-73. When the line is set at 8 runs, their over/under record is 16-20-1. This season, 46 of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, which accounts for 31.5% of their games.

Tampa Bay is starting right-hander Ryan Pepiot today vs. the Guardians, and he comes into the game with a record of 8-6 and an ERA of 3.66. Pepiot has made 22 starts this season and has turned in eight quality starts. In his last outing, he went 5 1/3 innings, giving up one earned run on six hits. He finished with four strikeouts in that outing. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. Pepiot has been much better on the road, coming in with a record of 5-3 and an ERA of 3.53 compared to 3-3 with a 4.73 ERA at home.

The Rays offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. They have also been one of the worst home run-hitting teams in the league and are batting just .231 as a team. However, they do have a few hitters who have been swinging the bat well of late, with Yandy Diaz and Jonny DeLuca both hitting over .350 in their last eight and 10 games, respectively.

Christopher Morel and Jose Siri are both near the top of the Rays’ home run leaderboard, but both players are batting under .200 for the season. Morel has gone deep 21 times, while Siri has 17 homers. Yandy Diaz has been a bright spot in the lineup, as he is batting .281 for the season and has gone deep 14 times.

The Guardians’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the White Sox, closing out their series with a 6-4 win. After scoring two runs in the 1st inning, the Guardians added another three runs in the 3rd. Cleveland went on to close things out with a 6-4 win. Heading into the game, the Guardians were at -238 on the money line.

Matthew Boyd got the start for the Guardians, going 4 1/3 innings, and picked up the win. He only gave up one run on six hits and issued just two walks. The Guardians’s offense was carried by Austin Hedges, who went 1/3 with a homer and three RBIs.

Cleveland is hosting the Rays today with an overall record of 84-62, good for 1st place in the AL Central. The Guardians hold a 4.5-game lead over the Royals for the division lead. The Guardians have won three straight games and closed out their series vs. the White Sox with three straight wins.

So far, the Guardians have gone 27-21 against other teams in the AL Central. At home, the Guardians are 43-25 this season and 41-37 on the road. As the favorite, the Guardians are 59-30 this year, and they are 38-18 as the favorite at home. Their overall series record is 27-15-5, and they are 7-3 over their last 10 games.

The Cleveland Guardians have been a strong bet on the run line this season, going 74-72 overall. They have been especially profitable on the road, where they are 41-37 ATS. They are currently riding a five-game run line win streak and have an average run margin of 0.5 runs per game.

Today’s over/under line of 8 runs is right in line with the Cleveland Guardians’ season average. The Guardians have seen 69 of their games this season with over/under lines set at 8 or higher, and their over/under record for those games is 13-15-6. Overall, the Guardians’ games have averaged 8.5 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 66-69.

Cleveland is sending Gavin Williams to the mound today vs. the Rays, and he comes into the game with a record of 3-8 and an ERA of 5.25. Williams has made 13 starts this year and has a WHIP of 1.37. In his 13 appearances, he has turned in three quality starts. Looking back at his most recent outing, Williams only went two-thirds of an inning, giving up five earned runs, and taking the loss. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Williams’ ERA at home is 8.04, compared to 11.2 on the road.

For the season, the Guardians are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. They have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 6th in the league. As a team, they are batting just .239, which is 15th in the league, and their team BABIP of .27 is the worst in the league. However, they have been good at avoiding strikeouts, and their team OBP, SLG, and OPS are all right around the league average.

José Ramírez and Josh Naylor have been two of the league’s top power hitters this season, as they have combined for 63 home runs. Ramírez’s 106 RBIs are 2nd in the league, and Naylor’s 101 RBIs are 5th. Over his last seven games, Lane Thomas has gone 10/28 with two homers and 10 RBIs.

Our prediction for this Rays vs. Guardians game is that the Guardians will pick up a 5-4 win. If you’re looking for a bet to make, we would recommend taking the Guardians on the money line, as they are predicted to win and have a payout of -142.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Gavin Williams finishing with seven strikeouts for the Guardians. As for Ryan Pepiot, he is predicted to finish with just four strikeouts. Offensively, the Guardians are projected to finish with nine hits compared to the Rays with eight.

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips

• Take the Guardians on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Rays (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

Cleveland Guardians Injury Report

Tampa Bay Rays Injury Report