Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Preview
At 6:40 PM ET, the Marlins and Pirates square off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, and the Pirates are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -145 compared to the Marlins at +122. The over/under line is at 9 runs.
Miami comes in with a record of 54-90 and they are 5th in the NL East, while the Pirates are 5th in the NL Central with an overall record of 68-76. Carmen Mlodzinski is starting for the Pirates, while the Marlins are sending Adam Oller to the mound.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins Trends and Key Stats
- 3-2 is the record of Marlins in their last five road games. They have also gone 4-1 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Pirates have a 3-2 (SU) record, along with a 3-2 record in their last five home contests.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Pirates have a record of 6-4 straight-up, and have gone 5-5 against the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Marlins have a straight-up record of 5-5 and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
Pittsburgh picked up a 3-2 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. The Pirates had a 1-0 lead after the first inning and scored the game’s final run in the 5th. As for the Marlins, they scored their only two runs in the 9th.
Paul Skenes started for the Pirates and picked up the win, going six innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with nine strikeouts but issued six walks. Aroldis Chapman closed things out. Valente Bellozo got the start for the Marlins and took the loss, giving up one earned run in 5 1/3 innings of work.
At the plate, Pittsburgh was led by Oneil Cruz, Andrew McCutchen, and Bryan Reynolds, as they were the only three Pirates hitters to have more than one hit. Cruz and McCutchen each homered. For the Marlins, Jesus Sanchez went 2/4 with two RBIs.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Prediction
Miami is 5th in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by 32 games. Overall, they are 54-90 and are 16-29 against other teams in the NL East. The Marlins are on the road today, where they are 26-43 this season. They have gone 28-47 at home.
So far this season, the Marlins have really struggled as the favorite, going just 4-14. As for their record as the underdog, they are 50-76. Miami’s overall series record is 11-26-9, and they are currently down 0-1 in their series vs. the Pirates.
The Marlins have been a solid bet against the run line on the road this season, going 36-33. They have covered the run line in three straight road games and are 66-60 overall as the underdog. Miami’s average run margin in winning games is +2.8, while it drops to -3.8 in losses.
The Miami Marlins are on the road against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The over/under line for the game is set at 9 runs, which is exactly the combined run average for Marlins games this season. Miami has played to the over in 78 of their 140 games, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the line is set at 9 runs, the Marlins are 4-12-1 to the over. Only 6.2% of their games have had lines set at 9 runs or higher.
Adam Oller will be on the mound for the Marlins today against the Pirates. He’s making his 4th start of the season and is coming off a start where he took the loss vs. the Phillies. Oller went 5 1/3 innings and gave up 4 runs on 5 hits. He did have a strong outing in his first start of the season, going 6 innings and striking out 8 vs. the Giants.
Heading into today’s game, the Marlins are 29th in the MLB in runs per game at just 3.8. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3.4 runs per contest. Miami’s offense is batting a collective .241 this season, which is 14th in the league, and they are also 14th in the league in strikeouts. As a team, the Marlins are 21st in home runs.
Jake Burger has been the Marlins’ top power threat this season, as his 25 homers are 15th in the MLB. He also leads the team with 60 RBIs. Over his last six games, Connor Norby has three homers, while Otto Lopez has gone 10/25 in that stretch.
Pittsburgh is 68-76 overall, and they trail the Brewers by 14.5 games in the NL Central. The Pirates are 5th in the division, just a half-game behind the Reds for 4th place. The Pirates have gone 22-20 against other teams in the NL Central this year.
The Pirates have won two straight games, and they are 6-4 across their last 10. At home, the Pirates are 35-38 this year and 33-38 on the road. So far, they are an even 20-20 as the home favorite, and they are 31-26 when favored overall. As for their record as the underdog, it is 37-50 this season.
Despite being the favorite, the Pirates have struggled to cover the run line this season, going 22-35. They have been much better on the run line as the underdog, going 57-30. Their average run margin in losing games is -3.6, while it is 3.2 in winning games. Overall, they are 79-65 on the run line this season.
When the Pirates play at home, the over/under line is set at 9 runs today, which is higher than their season average of 8.8 runs per game. The over/under record for Pittsburgh is 71-71 this season, and their games have averaged 8 runs per game. The over/under line has been set at 9 runs for 14 of their games this season, and their record in those games is 4-9-1.
Carmen Mlodzinski will be making the start for the Pirates today, and he comes into the game with a record of 2-5 and ERA of 3.73. So far, he has made three starts and 31 appearances. Mlodzinski most recently pitched on September 8th out of the bullpen, where he went one inning, giving up one earned run on two hits. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. Looking back at his last three appearances, Mlodzinski has finished with a no-decision in each one. Opponents are batting .235 off Mlodzinski this season.
Over his last four games, Andrew McCutchen has gone 4/15 with a home run and two RBIs. McCutchen is batting just .240 for the season but has an OBP of .335 and is 2nd on the Pirates with 19 homers. Oneil Cruz has gone just 5/22 in his last six games but is on a four-game hitting streak. For the season, Cruz is batting .269 with 19 homers, which is good for 2nd on the team.
Bryan Reynolds has been a bright spot for the Pirates this season, as he is hitting .275 and is 2nd in the league with 82 RBIs. His 22 homers are also the best on the team. Oneil Cruz and Bryan De La Cruz are also tied for 2nd on the team with 19 homers.
Our prediction for today’s Marlins vs. Pirates matchup is to take the Pirates on the money line, with the payout sitting at -145. We actually have the Pirates winning this one by a score of 6-4, giving you a couple of different ways you could look to bet this one.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Carmen Mlodzinski finishing with six strikeouts, which would have him as the 15th best starter in terms of strikeouts today. As for Adam Oller, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which would have him as the 17th best starter today.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips
- Take the Pirates on the moneyline
- The Pirates should also cover at -1.5
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Out | Elbow |
| Marco Gonzales | Out | Forearm |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | Out | Back |
| Ben Heller | Out | Shoulder |
| Daulton Jefferies | Out | Elbow |
| Dauri Moreta | Out | Elbow |
| Henry Davis | Out | Hand |
| Hunter Stratton | Out | Knee |
| Endy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Derek Hill | Out | Shoulder |
| Braxton Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Jesús Luzardo | Out | Back |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Vidal Bruján | Out | Shoulder |
| José Devers | Questionable | Hand |
| Ryan Weathers | Out | Finger |
| Dane Myers | Out | Ankle |
| Max Meyer | Out | Shoulder |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Calvin Faucher | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Nardi | Out | Elbow |
