Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Betting Tips 9/9/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Preview

Monday’s AL East matchup between the Orioles and Red Sox has a first pitch set for 7:10 PM ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA. Baltimore is currently on a two-game losing streak and is 82-62 overall, while the Red Sox are 3rd in the AL East with a record of 72-71.

The money line odds have the Orioles at +101 compared to the Red Sox at -120, and the over/under line is currently at 9.5 runs. Today’s starting pitching matchup features Cade Povich for the Orioles and Brayan Bello for the Red Sox. NESN is carrying this one on TV.

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Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Trends and Key Stats

• The Orioles are 2-3 in their five most recent road games, including a 2-3 runline record.
• In the Red Sox’s five most recent home games, their record stands at 0-5 (SU) with 1-4 against the spread.
• Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Red Sox have a straight-up record of 5-5, while going 5-5 against the runline.
• When playing as the underdog, the Orioles have won 4-6 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 6-4 against the runline.

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

The Orioles will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Rays with a 2-0 loss. Baltimore was the heavy favorite at -218 going into the game but couldn’t get anything going offensively, as they only had five hits and didn’t score a run. The Orioles also wasted a good start from Corbin Burnes, who took the loss, going six innings and giving up just two earned runs, and striking out three.

Baltimore’s offense was especially quiet in the late innings, as they didn’t score a run after the 4th inning. Gunnar Henderson was hot at the top of the lineup, going 3/4 with a run scored, but the Orioles couldn’t capitalize on his big game.

Baltimore is on the road today, looking to pick up a win after dropping two straight games. The Orioles are 82-62 overall, putting them just a half-game behind the Yankees for the AL East lead. So far, they have gone 29-17 against other teams in the AL East.

At home, the Orioles are 42-33 this season and 40-29 on the road. This year, the Orioles have been favored in 114 games, going 67-47 in those matchups. As the road favorite, Baltimore has gone 29-17 this year. The Orioles’ overall series record is 24-14-7, and they lost their most recent series vs. the Rays.

When the Orioles are on the road, they have been a good bet to cover the run line, with a 42-27 record. They have a run line record of 78-66 overall, with an average run margin of +0.6 runs per game. As the underdog, they are 21-9 vs. the run line, and they have covered the run line in two straight games as the favorite.

The Baltimore Orioles are on the road against the Boston Red Sox, with the Over/Under line set at 9.5 runs. The Orioles have a combined run average of 9.2 runs per game this season. Their Over/Under record is 77-56, and their average Over/Under line is 8 runs. When the line is set at 9.5 runs, their record is 6-2. Only 2.1% of their games have had an Over/Under line set at 9.5 runs, with just three games having a line set higher than that this season.

Cade Povich gets the start for the Orioles today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. So far this season, he has made 12 starts and has a record of 2-7 with an ERA of 5.76. Povich’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.60. In his last outing, Povich was excellent, going 7 1/3 innings and picking up the win. He didn’t allow a run in the outing and gave up just five hits. Before that, he had allowed at least two earned runs in five straight outings. Per nine innings, Povich is averaging 7.13 strikeouts and 3.94 walks.

Heading into today’s game, the Orioles are 2nd in the league in home runs and have the top slugging percentage in the league. Overall, they are averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 4th in the league. Baltimore has been even better on the road this season, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .250, which is 9th in the league.

Gunnar Henderson has been hot of late, going 10/24 in his last six games, with three homers and six runs scored. For the season, he is batting .282 with 36 homers. Anthony Santander has 39 homers this season, but is batting just .239. Santander does have 91 RBIs, which is 11th in the league.

The Red Sox will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the White Sox with a 7-2 loss. This was especially tough, as it was the White Sox’s bullpen that took the loss, and the Red Sox were the -282 favorite at home going into the game.

Richard Fitts got the start for the Red Sox, going 5 2/3 innings, and didn’t give up a run. However, the Red Sox’s offense scored only two runs on eight hits and wasted a big game from Connor Wong, who homered and went 3/4.

Boston is 72-71 overall, and they are 10 games behind the Yankees in the AL East. So far, they have gone 18-18 in divisional games. The Red Sox kick off their series vs. the Orioles, with these two teams’ overall records being separated by just a half-game.

At home, the Red Sox are 33-39 this season and 39-32 on the road. As the home underdog, Boston has gone 9-12 this year, and they have dropped five straight games when listed as the underdog. So far, they have been favored in 71 games, going 39-32, and their overall series record is 22-17-6.

When the Red Sox win, they do so by an average of 3.8 runs per game. When they lose, they lose by an average of 4.0 runs per game. They are 66-77 against the run line this season, including 26-46 at home and 40-31 on the road. They are on a four-game run line losing streak when favored, and are 26-45 against the run line as the favorite.

The Red Sox have played 16 games this season with an over/under line of 9.5 runs, and their record in those games is 12-14. Overall, their games have averaged 9.5 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 73-63. The average over/under line for their games this season is 9 runs, and only 11.2% of their games have had a higher line than today’s 9.5 runs.

Right-hander Brayan Bello gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Orioles at home. Bello has made 26 starts this season and has a record of 12-7 with a 4.75 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Bello has a WHIP of 1.38 and has issued 3.36 walks per nine innings compared to 8.56 strikeouts. In his last outing, Bello took the loss, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Bello has allowed at least one homer in each of his last three outings.

Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are 6th in home runs and have the league’s best team BABIP at .32. Overall, they are averaging 4.7 runs per game (10th) and are hitting a collective .256, which is the 5th best mark in the league. Boston has been even better on the road this season, averaging 5 runs per contest.

Rafael Devers has been the team’s top power threat this season, as his 28 homers lead the team and is 14th best in the MLB. Devers also leads the team with 81 RBIs and comes in with a batting average of .278. Tyler O’Neill has also been a big power threat, with 27 homers this season. O’Neill has gone 6/20 in his last six games with two homers.

Our predicted score for this game is 6-5 in favor of the Orioles. Given that they are the underdogs, you can get them at +101 on the money line, we see this as a great value pick.

Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Cade Povich finishing with five strikeouts compared to Brayan Bello with six. However, we have Bello going longer in this game, finishing with six innings compared to Povich at three.

Offensively, we have the Orioles finishing with 11 hits compared to the Red Sox with nine. And in terms of home runs, the Orioles are projected to hit more than the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips

• We like the Orioles on the moneyline (+101)
• The Orioles are also our pick on the spread at -1.5
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Boston Red Sox Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles Injury Report