Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Preview
At 6:40 PM ET, the Marlins and Pirates square off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, and the Pirates are heavily favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -253. The money line odds for a Marlins win are at +210, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs.
Miami will be looking to keep their two-game winning streak alive, as they are 54-89 and in 5th place in the NL East. The Pirates are 5th in the NL Central with a record of 67-76. Valente Bellozo is starting for the Marlins, and he is facing off against Paul Skenes. BSFL is carrying this game on TV.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins Trends and Key Stats
- 3-2 is the record of Marlins in their last five road games. They have also gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Pirates have gone 3-2 (SU) and 3-2 in their previous five home contests.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Pirates have a straight-up record of 5-5, while going 5-5 against the runline.
- Looking at the Marlins’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 6-4 straight-up and 6-4 vs. the runline.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Prediction
Miami closed out their series vs. the Phillies with an impressive 10-1 win. Heading into the game, they were the slight favorite at +113 on the money line. It was a seven-run 3rd inning that really turned things in their favor, and the Phillies could only score one run, which came in thejson 9th.
Edward Cabrera put together a good start for the Marlins, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out six Phillies batters. Miami’s offense was carried by Connor Norby, who went 2/4 with two homers and four RBIs.
Miami is on the road today to take on the Pirates, and they are 54-89 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East. The Marlins are 31 games behind the Phillies for the division lead and are 5th in the NL East. So far, they have gone just 16-29 in divisional games.
The Marlins have won two straight games, and these two wins have come after splitting their series with the Phillies. This year, the Marlins are just 4-14 as the favorite but have gone 50-75 as the underdog. They are also just under .500 on the road at 26-42.
When looking at the Marlins’ run line record, it’s clear that they have been a better bet on the road this season. They are 35-33 against the run line on the road, including a current two-game win streak. They are also 65-60 against the run line as the underdog this season.
Oddsmakers have set the over/under line for the Miami Marlins’ game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at 7.5 runs, which is lower than the Marlins’ season average of 8 runs per game. Miami has gone over the total in 21 of their 29 games this season when the line has been set at 7.5 runs.
Miami is sending right-hander Valente Bellozo to the mound today vs. the Pirates. He has made nine starts this year and has a record of 2-2 with a 3.78 ERA. Bellozo’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.28. In his last outing, he faced the Nationals and finished with a no-decision. Bellozo went six innings in that outing, giving up no earned runs on one hit. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight outings. Bellozo has a total of nine homers this season.
Over his last seven games, Connor Norby has been on fire for the Marlins, going 10/29 with four homers and nine RBIs. Overall, he is batting just .244 for the season. Jake Burger and Jesús Sánchez have been the Marlins’ top power threats this season, as Burger has 25 homers, and Sánchez has gone deep 17 times. Burger also leads the team with 60 RBIs.
As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. Miami’s team batting average is just .241, and they are the worst team in the league in terms of drawing walks. Currently, Josh Bell is on a seven-game hitting streak.
The Pirates’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Nationals, closing out their series with a 7-3 win. After allowing one run to the Nationals in the top of the first, the Pirates responded with four runs of their own. Pittsburgh went on to add another three runs in the 2nd inning.
Jared Jones put together a good start for the Pirates, going seven innings and giving up just two earned runs, and picking up the win. Pittsburgh’s offense was carried by Andrew McCutchen, who went 2/4 with a homer and three RBIs.
Pittsburgh is 67-76 overall and trails the Reds by 1.5 games for the fourth spot in the NL Central. The Pirates are 15 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. This year, they have gone 22-20 against other teams in the NL Central.
At home, the Pirates are 34-38 this year, and they are just below .500 at 33-38 on the road. So far, they have gone 19-20 as the home favorite. Pittsburgh’s overall series record is 19-21-6, and they split their most recent series vs. the Nationals.
When betting the run line on the Pirates, it’s been more profitable to take them on the road, where they have a 43-28 run line record compared to 36-36 at home. They’ve been a better bet as the underdog, going 57-30 against the run line compared to 22-34 as the favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.3, while it’s -3.6 in losses.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have seen their games go over the total in 71 of their 141 games this season, and they have gone over the total in 12 of their 30 games when the line has been set at 7.5 runs. Their games have averaged a combined 8.8 runs per game this season, and their games have gone over the total in two straight games.
Right-hander Paul Skenes gets the start for the Pirates today as he faces the Marlins at home. Skenes has made 19 starts this year and has a record of 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA. Coming into this game, he has a WHIP of .98 and has turned in 13 quality starts. In his last outing, Skenes didn’t allow a run, picking up the win in 5 innings of work. Looking back further, he has won three straight starts. The right-hander has been especially tough at home, going 5-1 with a 2.83 ERA compared to 4-1 with a 1.50 ERA on the road.
For the season, the Pirates are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 18th in the league. They have been a bit better at home, averaging 4.4 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .236 and have the 21st ranked home run total in the league. Currently, they are near the bottom of the league in OPS, slugging, and on-base percentage.
Andrew McCutchen and Bryan De La Cruz are both near the top of the Pirates’ home run leaderboard, but McCutchen has struggled of late, going 4/18 in his last five games. Nick Gonzales has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 12/35 in his last nine games. Yasmani Grandal and Oneil Cruz are also on hitting streaks for the Pirates.
Our prediction for this Marlins vs. Pirates matchup is to take the over, with the line sitting at 7.5 runs. We see the Pirates coming out on top with a final score of 5-4. However, with the Pirates being such heavy favorites on the money line, we see more value in taking the over.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Paul Skenes is projected to finish with the most strikeouts among today’s starters, and he also has the lowest projections for hits allowed. As for Valente Bellozo, he is predicted to finish with six strikeouts, and he is currently projected to go seven innings.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips
- Take the Pirates on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Marlins (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Out | Elbow |
| Marco Gonzales | Out | Forearm |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | Out | Back |
| Ben Heller | Out | Shoulder |
| Daulton Jefferies | Out | Elbow |
| Dauri Moreta | Out | Elbow |
| Henry Davis | Out | Hand |
| Hunter Stratton | Out | Knee |
| Endy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Derek Hill | Out | Shoulder |
| Braxton Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Jesús Luzardo | Out | Back |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Vidal Bruján | Out | Shoulder |
| José Devers | Questionable | Hand |
| Ryan Weathers | Out | Finger |
| Dane Myers | Out | Ankle |
| Max Meyer | Out | Shoulder |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Calvin Faucher | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Nardi | Out | Elbow |
