New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
From Citi Field in New York, we have the Reds and Mets facing off in an NL matchup. The money line odds have the Mets at -202 compared to the Reds at +169. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and the forecast calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid 60s.
First pitch for this one is set for 1:40 PM ET, and BSOH will be televising it. Luis Severino is starting for the Mets, and the Reds are starting Julian Aguiar. Cincinnati is currently on a two-game losing streak, and they are 4th in the NL Central, while the Mets are 2nd in the NL East.
Check out BetCoco for New York Mets – Cincinnati Reds odds
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Reds have recorded a 1-4 record, with a 1-4 performance on the runline.
- On the other side, the Mets have gone 4-1 (SU) and 4-1 in their previous five home contests.
- The Mets have a straight-up record of 9-1 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Reds have a straight-up record of 4-6 and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
New York cruised to a 4-0 win over the Reds in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a huge 6th inning, scoring all four of their runs. As for the Reds, they had their best chance to score in the 7th, but could only muster one run. Heading into the game, the Mets were favored at -154 on the money line.
Jose Quintana pitched well for the Mets in this one, going 6 2/3 innings and striking out six without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Sam Moll took the loss for the Reds. Jakob Junis only went five innings for Cincinnati, giving up five hits and striking out five.
Harrison Bader was the only player in the game to homer, going 1/3 with three RBIs. Jose Iglesias also had a two-hit game for New York.
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
Cincinnati is 68-75 overall this season, and they are 4th in the NL Central. Currently, they trail the Brewers by 14.5 games for the division lead. The Reds have gone 20-23 against other teams in the NL Central this season.
The Reds have dropped two straight games, and this came after winning three in a row. At home, the Reds are 36-39 this season and 32-36 on the road. As the road underdog, the Reds are 20-30 this season, and they are an even 33-33 as the favorite.
The Reds are 41-27 against the run line on the road this season, but they have failed to cover in their last three road games. They are 49-28 against the run line as an underdog this season. Their average run differential on the road is +0.5 runs per game.
The Cincinnati Reds are on the road today against the New York Mets. The over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs, which is lower than their average line of 9 runs. The Reds have played 101 games this season with an over/under line higher than 8 runs, which accounts for 70.6% of their games. Their combined run average for the season is 8.8 runs per game, and their over/under record is 67-69 for the year.
Julian Aguiar will be getting the start for the Reds on the road against the Mets. Aguiar has started 2 games this season, and his most recent outing was a win vs. the Pirates. In that game, he went 6 innings, striking out 4 and giving up 2 runs. He also started vs. the Astros, going 2 2/3 innings and giving up 2 runs.
Elly De La Cruz has been the Reds’ most consistent hitter this season, batting .261 with a team-high 23 home runs and 65 RBIs. However, he is just 4/19 in his last five games. Spencer Steer leads the team in RBIs (86) and is 15th in the league in that category, but is batting just .233 this season.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. They are also 12th in home runs and have the 10th best Isolated Power mark in the MLB. Collectively, the team is batting just .233, which is 19th in the league.
The Mets have won nine straight games, and they will look to make it 10 in a row today at home vs. the Reds. New York is 78-64 overall, which has them seven games behind the Phillies in the NL East. The Mets are also seven games ahead of the Braves for the NL East lead.
At home, the Mets are 40-33 this year, and they are 38-31 on the road. So far, they have been good as the favorite, going 51-35, and they are 27-29 as the underdog. New York has won three straight series and has an overall series record of 24-16-8 this year.
Despite their overall run line record being just 72-70, the Mets have been a good bet recently, covering in five straight games at home and eight straight when favored. They have actually been a better bet on the road this season, going 39-30 vs. the run line. The Mets’ average run differential is +0.4 runs per game, and they are 33-40 vs. the run line at home this season.
When the Mets play at home, the over/under line is set at an average of 8 runs per game. Their games have averaged 9.2 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 71-67. When the line is set at 8 runs, the over/under record is 14-7. Overall, 54.9% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs.
Luis Severino has been pitching well for the Mets, as he has won each of his last three starts. Most recently, he faced the Red Sox and picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run. Looking at his overall numbers, Severino is 10-6 with a 3.84 ERA. Opponents are batting .234 off the right-hander this year. Severino has one complete game shutout and 11 quality starts this season. His ERA at home is 3.74, compared to 4.95 on the road.
For the season, the Mets are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 7th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. As a team, the Mets are 4th in the league in home runs and are batting a collective .249, which is 8th in the MLB.
Francisco Lindor has been the Mets’ top hitter this season, batting .272 with 30 homers and a league-leading 84 RBIs. Pete Alonso is right behind him in the team’s home run race, with 31 homers, but is batting just .240 for the season. Over his last five games, Mark Vientos has gone 8/20 with three homers.
Our predicted score for this game is a 6-5 win for the Reds, which means we are recommending taking them on the money line at +169. Offensively, we have the Reds finishing with 11 hits, which is the third most in the league today.
Looking at the Mets, they are projected to finish with nine hits and five runs, giving them a home run projection of seventh in the league. If you’re looking to bet on the over/under, we would take the over, as we have this game finishing with 11 total runs.
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips
- We like the Reds on the moneyline (+169)
- The Reds are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Jeff McNeil | Out | Wrist |
| Paul Blackburn | Out | Hand |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Calf |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Dedniel Núñez | Out | Forearm |
| Christian Scott | Out | Elbow |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | Out | Toe |
| Nick Lodolo | Out | Finger |
| Austin Wynns | Out | Teres Major |
| Nick Martini | Out | Thumb |
| Stuart Fairchild | Out | Thumb |
| Hunter Greene | Out | Elbow |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Roa | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Abbott | Out | Shoulder |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
