Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Preview
The Orioles head into Sunday’s matchup vs. the Rays looking to move to 83-61, and they are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -202 compared to the Rays at +168. This one is getting started at 12:05 PM ET from Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, and the forecast calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid 50’s.
Today’s over/under line is at 7.5 runs, and the under is favored at -110. Zack Littell is starting for the Rays, and he is facing off against Corbin Burnes. The Orioles are currently 2nd in the AL East, while the Rays are 4th with a record of 70-72.
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Rays are 2-3. This includes going 2-3 vs. the runline.
- In the Orioles’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Orioles have a straight-up record of 5-5, while going 5-5 against the runline.
- The Rays have a 4-6 straight-up record and a 7-3 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
Tampa Bay cruised to a 7-1 win over the Orioles in the most recent game of this series. The Rays had a huge 3rd inning, scoring seven of their eight runs. As for the Orioles, they scored their only run in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Rays were at +148 on the money line.
Ryan Pepiot got the win for the Rays, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with four strikeouts but issued two walks. Zach Eflin had a rough outing for the Orioles, taking the loss after going 5 2/3 innings and giving up three earned runs.
Yandy Diaz and Taylor Walls each homered for the Rays, while Jonny DeLuca scored twice and drove in two runs while going 3/5. Cedric Mullins hit the game’s only other home run for the Orioles.
Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction
The Rays are 70-72 overall, putting them 4th in the AL East, two games behind the Red Sox for 3rd place. Currently, they trail the Yankees by 12 games in the division. So far, they have gone 18-24 against other AL East teams.
At home, the Rays are 37-38 this year compared to 33-34 on the road. Tampa Bay has an overall series record of 21-17-6 this year. They will look to get back to .500 today, as they have dropped six of their last ten and are 4-6 so far in September.
The Rays are 38-29 against the run line on the road this season, but overall they are just 72-70. Their average run differential is -0.4 runs per game, and they are 24-41 against the run line as the favorite.
Today’s over/under line is set at 7.5 runs for the Tampa Bay Rays’ road game against the Baltimore Orioles. The Rays have played in 81 games this season with over/under lines set above 7.5 runs, and their games have averaged 8.2 runs per game. Overall, Tampa Bay has a 64-70 over/under record this season, with a 22-25 record in games with a 7.5-run line.
Tampa Bay is sending Zack Littell to the mound today vs. the Orioles, and he comes in with a record of 5-9 and an ERA of 4.04. Littell’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.35. Out of his 25 starts, Littell has turned in eight quality starts and is averaging 7.95 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up four earned runs in four innings of work vs. the Twins. Before that, he had gone three straight outings without giving up more than one earned run. Littell’s ERA at home is 3.3 compared to 6.77 on the road.
Yandy Diaz has been one of the few bright spots in the Rays lineup this season, as he is batting .279 with 14 homers and a team-high 64 RBIs. He has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/25 in his last seven games with three homers. Christopher Morel comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak but is batting just .197 for the season.
Overall, the Rays offense is averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 28th in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs, batting average, and slugging percentage. As a team, the Rays are batting just .231.
The Orioles are 82-61 overall and trail the Yankees by just a half-game for the AL East lead. Baltimore is hosting the Rays today and is 29-16 against other teams in the AL East. The Orioles won the first game of this series, but the Rays took game two, so the series is currently tied.
As the favorite, the Orioles are 67-46 this season and 15-15 as the underdog. At home, they are 38-29 when favored. Looking at their overall record, the Orioles are 40-29 on the road compared to 42-32 at home. So far, they have been pretty good in close series, as their overall series record is 24-13-7.
When betting the run line in Orioles games this season, it has been more profitable to back them on the road, where they are 42-27 against the run line compared to 36-38 at home. They have been favored in 113 games, going 57-56 against the run line, while they have been the underdog in 30 games, going 21-9 against the run line.
The Orioles have seen a lot of high-scoring games this season, with a combined run average of 9.3 runs per game. Their over/under record is 77-55, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, their record is 7-7. Overall, 79.7% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs.
Right-hander Corbin Burnes gets the start for the Orioles today as he faces the Rays at home. He has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 13-7 with a 3.19 ERA. Burnes’ WHIP for the season is currently 1.13, and opponents are batting .217 off him this year. In his last outing, Burnes picked up the win, going five innings and giving up one earned run on six hits. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. Burnes has given up at least two homers in three of his last four outings.
Anthony Santander and Gunnar Henderson have been the Orioles’ top power threats this season, with Santander’s 39 homers being 3rd in the league and Henderson’s 36 homers being 6th. Santander also leads the team with 91 RBIs, which is 10th in the MLB. Henderson comes into the game with a hot bat, going 10/28 in his last seven games, including three homers.
As a team, the Orioles are 2nd in home runs and have the league’s top isolated power number. Overall, they are 4th in scoring at 5 runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. So far, they have been a good contact team, as they have the league’s best slugging percentage and are 6th in batting average.
Our prediction for this Orioles vs. Rays matchup is to take the over, with the line sitting at 7.5 runs. We see the Orioles coming away with a 6-4 win, giving us plenty of room to take the over.
If you’re looking for a pick on the money line, the payout for the Orioles is -202, and we do see them coming away with the win. However, we have Corbin Burnes as the ninth best starter to pick up a win today, and with the payout for the Orioles not being great, we would recommend sticking with the over.
Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips
- Take the Orioles on the moneyline
- The Orioles should also cover at -1.5
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
Baltimore Orioles Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Coulombe | Out | Elbow |
| Jorge Mateo | Out | Elbow |
| Ryan Mountcastle | Out | Wrist |
| Tyler Wells | Out | Elbow |
| John Means | Out | Elbow |
| Ramón Urías | Out | Ankle |
| Kyle Bradish | Out | Elbow |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Out | Lat |
| Jacob Webb | Out | Elbow |
| Alexis Cruz | Out | Personal |
| Heston Kjerstad | Out | Head |
| Jordan Westburg | Out | Hand |
| Christopher Ramirez | Out | Personal |
| Isaiah Kearns | Out | Personal |
| Félix Bautista | Out | Elbow |
Tampa Bay Rays Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe | Questionable | Finger |
| Wander Franco | Out | Personal |
| Colin Poche | Out | Shoulder |
| Shane McClanahan | Out | Elbow |
| Richie Palacios | Out | Knee |
| Jacob Waguespack | Out | Shoulder |
| Pete Fairbanks | Out | Lat |
