Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks Preview
At 8:10 PM ET, the Diamondbacks and Astros will square off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Minute Maid Park in Houston and has the Astros favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -159. Arizona has a money line payout of +133, and the over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.
Brandon Pfaadt is starting for the Diamondbacks, and he is facing off against Framber Valdez. Arizona is 79-62 this season, while the Astros are 75-65. Houston comes into the game on a three-game losing streak, while the Diamondbacks have won two straight. The Astros are also in first place in the AL West, while the Diamondbacks are third in the NL West.
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Houston Astros vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Diamondbacks have recorded a 4-1 record, with a 4-1 performance on the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Astros have a 1-4 (SU) record, along with a 1-4 record in their last five home contests.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Astros have a record of 6-4 straight-up, and have gone 5-5 against the runline.
- Looking at the Diamondbacks’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 5-5 straight-up and 7-3 vs. the runline.
Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction
The Diamondbacks will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Giants with a 3-2 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 9th inning before the Giants scored a run in the bottom of the 9th. Arizona was the +133 underdog on the road going into this matchup.
Merrill Kelly was excellent for the Diamondbacks, going seven innings and giving up just two earned runs, and striking out eight. However, the Diamondbacks couldnjson’t close things out, and Kevin Ginkel took the loss out of the bullpen. The Diamondbacks also wasted a big game from Geraldo Perdomo, who went 2/5 with a run scored.
Arizona is 79-62 overall, and they are 5.5 games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. The Diamondbacks will be on the road today to take on the Astros, and they are 25-18 against other teams in the NL West. Arizona took two of three from the Giants in their most recent series.
At home, the Diamondbacks are 39-31 this year, and they have gone 40-31 on the road. This season, Arizona is 45-26 as the favorite but just 34-36 as the underdog. As the road underdog, the Diamondbacks have put together a record of 27-22 this season.
Arizona has been a solid run line bet on the road this season, going 42-29, and has covered in two straight games. Overall, the Diamondbacks have a run differential of +0.7 runs per game, and they have a run line record of 74-67. They have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 44-26, compared to 30-41 as the favorite.
The Diamondbacks are on the road against the Astros today, with the over/under line set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average in Diamondbacks games this season is 10.2 runs per game, and their over/under record is 80-54. The average over/under line in their games this season is 9 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 11-5. In 117 of their games this season, the over/under line has been set higher than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 83.0% of their games. Only 8 of their games have had lower over/under lines than 7.5 runs, which is 5.7% of their games.
Right-hander Brandon Pfaadt is getting the start for the Diamondbacks today as he faces the Astros on the road. Pfaadt has made 27 starts this year and has a record of 9-7 with a 4.32 ERA. In his 27 appearances, he has turned in 12 quality starts and is averaging 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Pfaadt’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.19. In his last outing, he picked up the win, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up three earned runs on 10 hits. Before that, he had given up at least four earned runs in three straight starts.
Arizona has been the best offensive team in the league this season, averaging 5.4 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.6 runs per contest. The Diamondbacks have the league’s best on-base percentage and are also 2nd in team batting average. As a team, they are 4th in walks and have the 4th best slugging percentage in the league.
Ketel Marte has been the team’s best power threat this season, as his 30 home runs are the best mark on the team and 10th in the league. Eugenio Suarez also has a lot of power, as his 24 homers are 2nd on the team and 15th in the MLB. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/24 in his last six games.
Houston closed out their series vs. the Reds with a 1-0 loss. Heading into the game, the Astros were the heavy favorite at -155. It was a good start for the Astros, as Hunter Brown went six innings, and didn’t give up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out six. However, the Astros couldn’t get the win, and Bryan Abreu took the loss out of the bullpen.
Offensively, the Astros only had four hits but didn’t score a run. Jeremy Pena had two hits and scored the team’s only run. The Astros also wasted a good game from Jake Meyers, who went 3/4 with a double.
The Astros will be hosting the Diamondbacks today with an overall record of 75-65, and they lead the AL West by 4.5 games over the Mariners. Houston has dropped three straight games, losing the final three games of their series vs. the Reds. So far, they are 21-18 in divisional games.
At home, the Astros are 39-29 this season, and they are an even 36-36 on the road. As the favorite, the Astros are 57-46 this year and 18-19 as the underdog. Houston has won four straight games at home, and their overall series record is 24-19-2.
When the Astros are the favorite, they are just 46-57 against the run line, but as the underdog, they are 25-12. Their overall run line record is 71-69, and they are 32-36 against the run line at home. Their average run margin is +0.6 runs per game, and they have a +1.0 run differential at home.
When the Houston Astros are at home, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, and their games have averaged 8.5 runs per game this season. The over/under record for the Astros is 55-80, and the average over/under line for their games is 9 runs. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, the Astros’ over/under record is 8-16. Overall, 79.3% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs this season.
Left-hander Framber Valdez gets the start for the Astros today as he faces the Diamondbacks at home. He has made 24 starts this season and has a record of 13-6 with an ERA of 3.11. Valdez most recently faced the Royals, where he finished with a no-decision, going seven innings and not giving up a run. Before that outing, he had given up at least one earned run in four straight starts. Valdez has a WHIP of 1.11 and batting average allowed of .221. This year, he has one complete game and 14 quality starts.
Yordan Alvarez has been a big power threat for the Astros this season, as his 30 homers are good for 1st on the team and 10th in the league. Alvarez is also batting a strong .309. Yainer Diaz has also been a strong power threat for the Astros, as his 78 RBIs are the best mark on the team, and he has 16 homers. Alex Bregman has also been a strong power threat, as he has 21 homers and is batting .259.
Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez are also near the top of the Astros’ home run leaderboard, with 18 and 21 homers, respectively. Altuve is batting .294 for the season, while Alvarez is batting .309. The Astros come into the game as one of the league’s top-hitting teams, as they are batting .260 as a team, which is 3rd in the MLB.
Our prediction for this Astros vs. Diamondbacks matchup is that the Astros will pick up a 6-5 win at home. Given that they are at -159 on the money line, this is the bet we would recommend taking.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Framber Valdez is projected to finish with five strikeouts compared to Brandon Pfaadt with just four. Valdez is also predicted to finish with a better ERA, and he is ninth among starters in terms of picking up a win.
Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips
- Take the Astros on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Diamondbacks (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Houston Astros Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Kendall Graveman | Out | Shoulder |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Out | Forearm |
| Kyle Tucker | Out | Shin |
| Cristian Javier | Out | Elbow |
| Luis Garcia | Out | Elbow |
| Bennett Sousa | Out | Shoulder |
| José Urquidy | Out | Elbow |
| Penn Murfee | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Ortega | Out | Elbow |
| J.P. France | Out | Undisclosed |
Arizona Diamondbacks Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte | Out | Ankle |
| Jordan Montgomery | Questionable | Lower Leg |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | Out | Calf |
| Gabriel Moreno | Out | Groin |
| Kyle Nelson | Out | Shoulder |
| Drey Jameson | Out | Elbow |
| Bryce Jarvis | Out | Elbow |
| Andrew Saalfrank | Out | Suspension |
