San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers Prediction & Betting Tips 9/5/2024

San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers Preview

Casey Mize will start for the Tigers on Thursday, as they are on the road to face the Padres at PETCO Park in San Diego. The Padres are 80-61 and they will be sending Martín Pérez to the mound. San Diego is 2nd in the NL West, while the Tigers are 4th in the AL Central.

The money line odds have the Padres at -155 compared to the Tigers at +130, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs. BSDET will be televising this one, and first pitch is set for 8:40 PM ET.

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San Diego Padres vs. Detroit Tigers Trends and Key Stats

• 3-2 is the record of Tigers in their last five road games. They have also gone 4-1 vs. the runline.
• On the other side, the Padres have gone 2-3 (SU) and 1-4 in their previous five home contests.
• Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Padres have a straight-up record of 6-4, while going 3-7 against the runline.
• Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Tigers have a straight-up record of 4-6 and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.

San Diego picked up a 6-5 win over the Tigers in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a late rally, scoring one run in the 5th and then picking up the game-winning run in the 10th. Heading into the game, the Padres were favored at -198 on the money line.

Detroit wasted a good outing from Keider Montero, as he gave up just two earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Jason Foley took the loss for the Tigers out of the bullpen. Jeremiah Estrada got the win for the Padres out of the bullpen as Yu Darvish went just 2 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs.

Offensively, the Padres were led by Jackson Merrill, who went 3/5 with a home run. Fernando Tatis Jr. also had two hits and scored a run for San Diego. Matt Vierling hit the game’s only other home run while going 2/5 with three RBIs.

San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Detroit is at an even .500 this season, with a record of 70-70, which has them 4th in the AL Central, 10 games behind the Guardians for the division lead. The Tigers have dropped two straight games, and these came after winning three in a row. So far, they are 24-22 in AL Central matchups.

At home, the Tigers are 35-34 this season and 35-36 on the road. Detroit has won three straight series, and their overall series record is 20-19-5 this year. As the underdog, the Tigers are 38-48 this season, and they have lost four straight games as the underdog overall.

When betting the Tigers on the run line, it’s been more profitable to take them on the road this season. Overall, they have a run line record of 73-67, but that includes a 29-40 mark at home. Their average run margin for the season is just +0.1, but on the road, it’s +0.4. As the underdog, they are 54-32 on the run line. In winning games, their average run margin is +3.6, while in losing games, it’s -3.4.

When the Detroit Tigers are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs on average. Their games have averaged a combined 8.3 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 70-66. When the O/U line is set at 8.5, their record is 13-14. Overall, 24 of their games have had O/U lines set at 8.5 runs, which accounts for 17.1% of their games this season.

Casey Mize will be looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he gave up four earned runs in six innings of work. In that start vs. the Red Sox, he gave up one homer. Mize finished with a no-decision in the outing. Looking back over his last four starts, Mize has allowed at least one homer in three of them. The right-hander has a record of 2-6 this season and an ERA of 4.36. Opposing batters are hitting .280 off Mize this season. So far, he has made five quality starts and is averaging 6.59 strikeouts per nine innings.

Heading into today’s game, Matt Vierling and Riley Greene have been the Tigers’ top power threats so far this season, as Greene leads the team with 20 homers, and Vierling is right behind him with 16. Greene also leads the team with 58 RBIs, while Vierling is 3rd on the team with 51 runs batted in. Vierling has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/29 in his last eight games, and Greene is looking to get back on track, as he has just five hits in his last 29 at-bats.

As a team, the Tigers are averaging just 4.2 runs per game, which is 22nd in the league. Their batting average of .233 is also 18th in the league. Overall, their offense has been pretty bad, as they are in the bottom half of the league in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

With an overall record of 80-61, the Padres are 4.5 games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. San Diego will be at home today, hosting the Tigers, and they have won three straight games, taking the first two games of this series vs. the Tigers. So far this year, they are 20-20 in divisional games.

This season, the Padres have been really good as the favorite, going 51-37, and they are 29-24 as the underdog. At home, they are 32-24 when favored. San Diego’s overall series record is 27-14-5 this year, and they are 7-3 across their last 10 games.

San Diego has been a strong run line team on the road this season, going 44-26, while they have struggled to cover the run line at home, going 28-43. The Padres have an average run margin of 0.5 runs per game this season, and they have been a strong run line bet as the underdog, going 36-17. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.6 runs per game, while it is -3.6 runs per game in losing games.

San Diego has played 139 games this season, and only 25 of them have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs. The Padres have a 76-63 over/under record this season, and their games have averaged 9.0 runs per game. Their average over/under line is set at 8 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 8.5 runs is 18-15. Today’s over/under line is set at 8.5 runs.

Martín Pérez gets the start for the Padres today vs. the Tigers and comes into the game with a record of 4-5 and ERA of 4.71. So far this year, he has made 22 starts, and opponents are batting .287 off the left-hander. Perez’s WHIP for the season is 1.53. In his last outing, Perez picked up the win, going five innings and giving up four earned runs on seven hits. He has not lost a game since July 26th. Perez has made seven quality starts this year and is averaging 7.14 strikeouts per nine innings.

San Diego comes into today’s game as the league’s top hitting team, with a team batting average of .265. They are also one of the league’s best home run hitting teams, and their 4.8 runs per game is 8th in the league. The Padres have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per game.

Jackson Merrill has been swinging a hot bat for the Padres, going 9/24 with three homers over his last six games. For the season, he is 2nd on the team with 22 homers. Manny Machado has also been a force at the plate, as his 86 RBIs are tops on the team and 12th in the league. He is also 1st on the team with 23 homers.

Our prediction for today’s Tigers vs. Padres matchup is to take the Padres on the money line at -155. We actually have the Padres winning this one at home by a score of 6-5. This would give you some room to take the Padres on the run line if you prefer, as you could get them at -1.5 and the payout would be around +150.

Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Casey Mize going five innings and finishing with six strikeouts. As for Martin Perez, we have him going just over five innings and ending the game with five K’s.

San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers Betting Tips

• Take the Padres on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Tigers (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

San Diego Padres Injury Report

Detroit Tigers Injury Report