San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Preview
Thursday’s matchup between the Diamondbacks and Giants is set to get started at 3:45 PM ET from Oracle Park in San Francisco, CA. The Giants are the betting favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -153, while the Diamondbacks are at +129. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs.
Blake Snell will start for the Giants, and he will be looking to help them snap a four-game losing streak. The Diamondbacks are starting Merrill Kelly, and they are 79-61 this season, which has them third in the NL West. Arizona has won two straight heading into Thursday’s game.
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San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Trends and Key Stats
- The Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their five most recent road games, including a 4-1 runline record.
- Conversely, the Giants have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 1-4 record in their last five home games.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Giants have a record of 6-4 straight-up, and have gone 4-6 against the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Diamondbacks have a 6-4 straight-up record and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.
Arizona picked up a 6-4 road win over the Giants in the most recent game of this series. The Diamondbacks had a huge 1st inning, scoring six of their eight runs. As for the Giants, they scored their only four runs in the 9th. Heading into the game, the Diamondbacks were favored at -134 on the money line.
Zac Gallen started for the Diamondbacks and picked up the win, going six innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with eight strikeouts but issued four walks. Hayden Birdsong only went three innings for the Giants, giving up two earned runs on three hits.
Eugenio Suarez and Pavin Smith each homered for the Diamondbacks, while LaMonte Wade Jr. went deep for the Giants. Suarez, Smith, and Tyler Fitzgerald each had two hits and two RBIs for Arizona’s offense.
San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction
Arizona is 79-61 overall this season, and they are 3rd in the NL West, five games behind the Dodgers for the division lead. The Diamondbacks have gone 25-17 in divisional games this year. They have won two straight games and are 5-5 over their last 10.
At home, the Diamondbacks are 39-31 and have gone 40-30 on the road. Arizona has won eight straight games as the road underdog, and their overall record as the underdog is 34-35. As the favorite, the Diamondbacks are 45-26 this year.
When the Diamondbacks are on the road, they have a run line record of 41-29, and their average run margin is +0.8 runs per game. They have a run line record of 73-67 overall, and they have a run line losing streak when they are favored of 2 games. Their average run margin in winning games is +4.1 runs per game, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.7 runs per game.
The Diamondbacks are on the road against the Giants today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. Arizona’s games have averaged 10.2 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 80-53. Their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs, and when the line has been set at 7.5 runs, their over/under record is 11-5. In 83.6% of their games this season, the over/under line has been set higher than 7.5 runs, and their current over streak is at six games.
Right-hander Merrill Kelly is getting the start for the Diamondbacks today as he faces the Giants on the road. He has made eight starts this year and has a record of 4-0 with an ERA of 4.30. Kelly’s WHIP for the season is 1.28, and he has turned in three quality starts. In his last outing, Kelly finished with a no-decision, giving up four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One area of concern for Kelly is that he has allowed a total of nine home runs this year.
Arizona comes into today’s game as the top-scoring team in the league, averaging 5.4 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.6 runs per contest. Overall, they are 2nd in team batting average at .263 and have the league’s top on-base percentage. The Diamondbacks also have the league’s 3rd best slugging percentage and 2nd best OPS.
Ketel Marte and Eugenio Suarez have been two of the Diamondbacks’ top power threats this season, as Marte leads the team with 30 homers, and Suarez is right behind him with 24. Marte is also 2nd on the team with 81 RBIs, while Suarez’s 87 RBIs are the best mark on the team. Suarez has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/22 with four homers over his last six games. Corbin Carroll has also been hot, going 10/25 with two homers over his last six games.
San Francisco is looking to snap a four-game losing streak today, and they are 68-72 overall, putting them 4th in the NL West. The Giants trail the Dodgers by 16 games in the division and are 21-21 against other teams in the NL West.
At home, the Giants are 39-32 this year, but they have gone just 29-40 on the road. As the favorite, the Giants are 43-32 this year and 25-40 as the underdog. So far, they have dropped the first two games of this series vs. the Diamondbacks, and their overall series record is 21-19-3.
When it comes to the run line, the Giants are a much better bet on the road than at home. Their overall run line record is just below .500 at 69-71, but they are 38-31 on the run line on the road compared to just 31-40 at home. They are also better against the run line as the underdog, going 38-27 compared to 31-44 as the favorite. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.1, while it drops to -3.2 in losses.
The San Francisco Giants have been on a bit of an over streak lately, with the over hitting in their last three games. Their games have averaged 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 71-63. The over/under line for today’s game against the Arizona Diamondbacks is set at 7.5 runs, which is slightly lower than their average line of 8 runs per game this season. In games with an over/under line of 7.5 runs, the over is 29-23 this season.
Blake Snell gets the start for the Giants today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up an earned run. Against the Marlins on August 30th, he went seven innings, giving up just one unearned run. Snell finished with eight strikeouts in that outing. Looking back further, he has finished with a no-decision in each of his last four starts. Snell has a record of 2-3 this year, along with an ERA of 3.56 and WHIP of 1.08. Opposing batters are hitting .170 off Snell this season. He has one complete game shutout and eight quality starts.
San Francisco’s offense is averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 17th in the league. They are also 17th in home runs and have a team batting average of .240. The Giants have two players with over 20 homers this season, with Matt Chapman leading the team with 69 RBIs. Chapman is batting .247 for the season and has gone deep 22 times.
Heliot Ramos is also having a solid season at the plate, as he is batting .274 and is 2nd on the team with 20 homers. Over his last five games, Mike Yastrzemski has gone 4/15 with two homers and six runs scored. Tyler Fitzgerald has also been swinging a hot bat, going 6/20 in his last five games.
Our predictions for this Giants vs. Diamondbacks matchup have the Giants coming out on top by a score of 6-5. We are predicting that the Giants will out hit the Diamondbacks and also have starting pitcher Blake Snell finishing with more strikeouts than Merrill Kelly.
If you’re looking for a bet to make on this game, we would recommend taking the Giants on the money line at -153. Given that the Giants are projected to win and the payout is still a good value, this is the route we would go.
San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips
- Take the Giants on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Diamondbacks (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
San Francisco Giants Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Ray | Out | Hamstring |
| Wilmer Flores | Out | Knee |
| Tom Murphy | Out | Knee |
| Matt Chapman | Questionable | Undisclosed |
| Jordan Hicks | Out | Shoulder |
| Randy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
| Keaton Winn | Out | Elbow |
| Jung Hoo Lee | Out | Shoulder |
Arizona Diamondbacks Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte | Out | Ankle |
| Jordan Montgomery | Questionable | Lower Leg |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | Out | Calf |
| Gabriel Moreno | Out | Groin |
| Kyle Nelson | Out | Shoulder |
| Drey Jameson | Out | Elbow |
| Bryce Jarvis | Out | Elbow |
| Andrew Saalfrank | Out | Suspension |
