Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview
At 6:40 PM ET, the Cardinals and Reds square off in an NL Central matchup. This one is being played at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, and the Reds are favored on the money line (+110). The money line odds have the Cardinals at -130, and the over/under line is at 9 runs.
St. Louis will be starting Sonny Gray, while the Reds are sending Andrew Abbott to the mound. The Cardinals are 2nd in the NL Central with a record of 60-58, while the Reds are 4th at 57-61.
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Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Trends and Key Stats
- 2-3 is the record of Cardinals in their last five road games. They have also gone 1-4 vs. the runline.
- Conversely, the Reds have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 3-2 record in their last five home games.
- Over their last ten games, the Cardinals have a 4-6 straight-up record when playing as the favorite, along with a 1-9 record vs. the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Reds have a 4-6 record against the runline and a 5-5 straight-up record in their last ten games.
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
The Cardinals will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Royals with an 8-3 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 2nd inning before the Royals scored two runs in the 3rd to take the lead. Kansas City really broke things open with a four-run 7th inning. St. Louis’s offense scored their only three runs in the 2nd.
Andre Pallante got the start for the Cardinals and took the loss. He only lasted 5 2/3 innings, giving up just one earned run, but the Cardinals couldnjson’t close things out, and St. Louis fell to +104 on the money line.
St. Louis is 60-58 overall and is 7.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. The Cardinals’ overall record is 17-19 in the division. They kick off their series vs. the Reds on the road today. At home, the Cardinals are 31-27 and have gone 29-31 on the road.
As the favorite, the Cardinals are 31-29 this season and 29-29 as the underdog. St. Louis has an overall series record of 18-16-4 this year. They are coming off splitting a two-game series with the Royals and are 4-6 over their last 10 games.
When it comes to the run line, the Cardinals have been a tough team to figure out this season. They are just under .500 at 58-60, but they have been a better bet on the road (30-30) than at home (28-30). They have been a better bet as the underdog (38-20) than as the favorite (20-40). Their average run margin on the season is -0.4, but they have been outscored by 0.5 runs per game on the road and 0.3 runs per game at home. Their average run margin in winning games is +2.7, while it is -3.6 in losing games.
St. Louis has been an over team this season, with a combined run average of 8.7 runs per game. Their over/under record is 58-57, and when the line is set at 9 runs, they are 10-9-1. They have gone over the total in three straight games, and overall, just 6.8% of their games have had a line set at 9 runs this season.
Sonny Gray gets the start for the Cardinals today as he faces the Reds on the road. So far this season, Gray has made 21 starts and has a record of 11-6 with a 3.65 ERA. In his last outing, Gray picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up two earned runs on six hits. He has been pitching well lately, as he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight outings. Gray’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.07, and opponents are batting .214 off the right-hander this year.
The Cardinals offense is averaging just 4.2 runs per game this season, which is 22nd in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 4 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .247, which is 11th in the league, and are also near the top of the league in terms of avoiding strikeouts. St. Louis comes into the game with a collective on-base percentage of .310 and a slugging percentage of .389.
Alec Burleson has been the Cardinals’ top power threat this season, as his 20 homers are the best on the team and 12th in the league. He is also batting .277. Brendan Donovan has been swinging a good bat of late, going 7/18 in his last five games, and is also on a three-game hitting streak.
The Reds’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Brewers, closing out their series with a 4-3 win. After allowing two runs to the Brewers in the 2nd inning, the Reds responded with two runs of their own. Cincinnati went on to add another two runs in the 4th inning.
Starting for the Reds was Nick Lodolo, who picked up the win. He went 5 1/3 innings, giving up three earned runs on just three hits. Lodolo also issued three walks and struck out four Brewers batters. Tyler Stephenson was hot at the plate, going 2/3 with a homer and a run scored. The Reds also had three other players with a hit.
Cincinnati is 57-61 overall this season, and they are 4th in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by 10.5 games. The Reds head into today’s game vs. the Cardinals having gone 15-17 in divisional games this year. They are just a game behind the Cubs for 3rd place in the division and trail the Brewers for the NL Central lead.
At home, the Reds are 28-31 this year and 29-30 on the road. As the favorite, the Reds are 30-26 this year and 27-35 as the underdog. So far, they are 9-10 as the underdog at home. Cincinnati’s overall series record is 14-20-3, and they are coming off losing their series vs. the Brewers.
The Reds have been a solid run line bet this season, going 63-55 overall. They have been especially good on the run line on the road, going 37-22. Their average run differential per game is +0.3, and they have a run line win streak as an underdog of two games.
The Cincinnati Reds are playing the St. Louis Cardinals at home today, and the over/under line is set at 9 runs. The combined run average for Reds games this season is 8.5 runs, and their over/under record is 54-60. The average over/under line for their games is also 9 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 9 runs is 4-18-3. So far this season, 32 of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 9 runs, which accounts for 27.1% of their games. On the other hand, 61 of their games have had over/under lines set lower than 9 runs, which accounts for 51.7% of their games. The under has hit in their last two games.
Cincinnati is sending Andrew Abbott to the mound today vs. the Cardinals, and he will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Marlins. In that start, he gave up six earned runs in five innings of work, taking the loss. Abbott has actually taken the loss in each of his last three outings. Looking at his overall numbers, Abbott is 9-9 with a 3.70 ERA. Opponents are batting .231 off the left-hander this season. So far, he has made eight quality starts and is averaging 7.41 strikeouts per nine innings. Per nine innings, Abbott is averaging 3.49 walks.
Elly De La Cruz has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Reds, going 12/34 in his last eight games with two homers and five RBIs. For the season, he is batting .264 with an OBP of .349. De La Cruz’s 20 homers are the best mark on the team and 12th in the league. Spencer Steer has gone deep 16 times this season and is batting .233.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. They are also 11th in home runs and have the 8th best isolated power mark in the league. Currently, the Reds are 24th in team batting average at just .230.
We like the Reds on the money line in this one, and at +110, there is some good value. Our predicted final score is 6-4 in favor of the Reds. Looking at the starting pitchers, Sonny Gray is predicted to finish with six strikeouts, which ranks him 10th among starters.
For the Reds, Andrew Abbott is predicted to finish with five strikeouts, which has him fifth worst among starters. However, we do like that Abbott is predicted to finish with fewer hits allowed than Gray.
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips
- We like the Reds on the moneyline (+110)
- The Reds are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Suter | Out | Shoulder |
| Austin Wynns | Out | Teres Major |
| Nick Martini | Out | Thumb |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Shoulder |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Lance Lynn | Out | Knee |
| Steven Matz | Out | Back |
| Keynan Middleton | Out | Forearm |
| Drew Rom | Out | Biceps |
| Michael Siani | Out | Oblique |
| Masyn Winn | Questionable | Illness |
