Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
At 4:05 PM ET, the Brewers and Nationals face off in an NL matchup. This one is taking place at Nationals Park in Washington, DC, and the Nationals are looking to snap a five-game losing streak. They are the slight underdog on the money line (+113), while the Brewers are favored (-133).
BSWI will be televising Saturday’s game, and Milwaukee comes in with a record of 62-47, putting them 1st in the NL Central. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs, and the forecasted temperature in Washington on Saturday is 89 degrees.
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Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Brewers are 4-1. This includes going 3-2 vs. the runline.
- In the Nationals’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 1-4 (SU) with 4-1 against the spread.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Brewers have a straight-up record of 5-5 and a runline record of 4-6.
- The Nationals have a 5-5 record vs. the runline and a 6-4 straight-up record in their last ten games as the underdog.
It was all Milwaukee in the last game of this series, as the Brewers took down the Nationals by a score of 8-3. The Brewers offense only had two more hits than the Nationals and struck out nine times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were at -111 on the money line.
This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Frankie Montas for the Brewers and Jake Irvin for the Nationals. Montas only went five innings but gave up just three hits and three earned runs. On the other side, Irvin was tagged for four homers and four runs in just 5 2/3 innings of work.
Milwaukee’s two-through-five hitters did the most damage, as they combined to go 7/14 with four homers and seven RBIs. Blake Perkins, Sal Frelick, Willy Adames, and Garrett Mitchell each had multi-hit games.
Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Milwaukee is 62-47 overall this season, putting them 1st in the NL Central. Currently, they lead the Cardinals by 6.5 games. The Brewers are 23-13 in divisional matchups this season. They have won three straight games on the road and are 31-26 for the year.
As the favorite, the Brewers have gone 36-25 this season, and they are 26-22 as the underdog. Milwaukee has an overall series record of 19-13-3 this season, and they have dropped two straight series.
When it comes to betting the run line, the Brewers have been a solid play on the road this season, going 32-25. They have covered the run line in three straight road games and have an average run margin of +0.8 runs per game away from home. As the underdog, they have been especially profitable, going 32-16 against the run line.
The Milwaukee Brewers are on the road today against the Washington Nationals. The O/U line for the game is set at 9 runs, which is slightly higher than their season average of 8.7 runs per game. The Brewers have gone over the O/U line in 59 of their 104 games this season, and when the line has been set at 9 runs, they have a record of 5-5-2. Their last two games have gone over the total.
The Brewers are sending Aaron Civale to the mound today, and he comes in with a record of 2-7 and ERA of 4.92. So far, he has made 21 appearances and 21 starts. Out of those starts, Civale has turned in four quality starts and is averaging 8.75 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Civale finished with a no-decision after giving up two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. He only gave up one earned run in each of his previous two outings. The right-hander has been hurt by the long ball this year, as he has allowed 21 homers. Civale’s ERA on the road is 6.46 compared to 4.11 at home.
Currently, the Brewers are 10th in the league in scoring at 4.7 runs per game. Overall, they are batting .255 as a team, which is the 4th best mark in the league. One of the team’s biggest strengths has been their ability to avoid strikeouts, as they are 17th in the league in strikeouts and 3rd in walks. The Brewers have also been good at getting on base this season, with a team OBP of .331.
Coming into the game, Rhys Hoskins is on an 8-game hitting streak, and he is also the team’s leader in home runs this season with 18. However, he is batting just .220 for the season. Willy Adames has been the team’s most consistent run producer, as his 71 RBIs are the best mark on the team and the 10th best in the league. Adames is also 2nd on the team with 17 homers.
Washington is 49-61 overall and is 16.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. The Nationals have dropped five straight games, and this losing streak has come after losing four of their last five games before that. So far, they are 16-15 in divisional games.
At home, the Nationals are 23-28 this year, and they are just below .500 at 26-33 on the road. As the underdog, the Nationals are 39-52 this year, and they are 17-22 when playing as the home underdog. Washington has an overall series record of 14-19-2 this year.
Washington has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 62-48 overall. They have been slightly better on the road, going 35-24, compared to 27-24 at home. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 53-38, compared to 9-10 as the favorite. The Nationals have been outscored by an average of 0.5 runs per game this season.
Washington’s over/under record is 55-51, and the average over/under line in their games is 9 runs. When the line is set at 9 runs, their record is 10-9-2. The over has hit in four straight games for the Nationals.
Washington is sending DJ Herz to the mound today vs. the Brewers, and he will be looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he gave up two earned runs in five innings of work. In that July 28th outing vs. the Cardinals, Herz gave up one homer. He has given up a homer in three straight starts. Herz’s record for the season is 1-4, and his ERA is 4.79. Opposing batters are hitting .253 off Herz this season. The right-hander has made one quality start this year and is averaging 11.54 strikeouts per nine innings.
Washington’s offense comes into the game averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 19th in the league. They have been a bit better on the road, putting up 4.3 runs per contest. As a team, the Nationals are batting .241, which is 13th in the league, but they are 25th in home runs and near the bottom of the league in terms of slugging percentage and OPS.
CJ Abrams has been the Nationals’ top power threat this season, as he has 16 homers and 54 RBIs. However, he is just 6/36 in his last nine games. Luis Garcia Jr. has been a bit better of late, going 11/36 in his last nine games, including one home run. Alex Call has been swinging a hot bat for the Nationals, going 4/9 in his last four games.
Our prediction for today’s Brewers vs. Nationals game is to take the Nationals on the money line, with the payout currently sitting at +113. We actually have the Nationals winning this one by a score of 6-5.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have DJ Herz finishing with seven strikeouts, which is the third-best among all starters today. As for Aaron Civale, we have him finishing with five K’s, which is right in the middle of the pack.
Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- Take the Brewers on the moneyline
- On the run line we like Nationals (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Washington Nationals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Gallo | Out | Hamstring |
| Trevor Williams | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Jordan Weems | Out | Shin |
| Mason Thompson | Out | Elbow |
| Josiah Gray | Out | Elbow |
| Cade Cavalli | Out | Elbow |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Yelich | Out | Back |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Bryan Hudson | Out | Oblique |
| Rob Zastryzny | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Trevor Megill | Out | Back |
| Enoli Paredes | Out | Forearm |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Dunn | Out | Back |
