Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
Frankie Montas will start for the Brewers on Friday, as they are looking to snap a two-game losing streak. The Nationals, who are 4th in the NL East, have a record of 49-60 and they will be sending Jake Irvin to the mound. Milwaukee is currently 1st in the NL Central, and the money line odds have them at -119 compared to the Nationals at +100. The over/under line is at 9 runs, and APLTV will be televising this matchup.
First pitch from Nationals Park is set for 6:45 PM ET, and the forecast for Friday’s game calls for broken clouds and temperatures in the upper 90s. Washington is 4-1 in their last five games, while the Brewers have won three of their last five.
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Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- The Brewers are 4-1 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- The Nationals, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 1-4 (SU) and 4-1 record.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Brewers have a straight-up record of 5-5 and a runline record of 4-6.
- When playing as the underdog, the Nationals have a 5-5 record against the runline and a 6-4 straight-up record in their last ten games.
Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
The Brewers will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Braves with a 6-2 loss. This was especially tough, as it was the Braves who handed the Brewers the loss. Milwaukee was the +101 underdog at home going into the game.
Freddy Peralta was sharp for the Brewers, going six innings and giving up just two runs on three hits. He also issued only two walks and struck out seven Braves batters. However, the Brewers couldn’t close things out, and Jared Koenig took the loss out of the bullpen. The Brewers also wasted a big game from Jackson Chourio, who went 2/5 with a double and a run scored.
Milwaukee is on the road today to take on the Nationals, having dropped two straight games. The Brewers are 61-47 and lead the NL Central by 5.5 games over the Cardinals. So far, they have gone 23-13 against other teams in the NL Central.
As the road team, the Brewers have gone 30-26 this year compared to 31-21 at home. Milwaukee lost two of three in their series vs. the Braves. So far, they have an overall series record of 19-13-3 this year.
The Brewers have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 56-52 overall. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 31-25 against the run line. They have covered the run line in two straight games and have an average run differential of +0.7 runs per game on the road this season.
The Milwaukee Brewers are on the road to face the Washington Nationals today. The over/under line for the game is set at 9 runs. The combined run average for Brewers games this season is 8.7 runs. Milwaukee has a 58-45 over/under record, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, the Brewers have a record of 4-5-2. So far this season, 10 of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs, accounting for 9.3% of their games.
Right-hander Frankie Montas is starting for the Brewers today as he faces the Nationals on the road. He has made 19 starts this season and has a record of 4-8 with an ERA of 5.01. Montas’ WHIP for the season is currently 1.44. In his 19 appearances, he has turned in six quality starts and is averaging 7.52 strikeouts per nine innings. Montas most recently faced the Nationals on July 19th, where he took the loss after giving up seven earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. He has given up a homer in three straight outings.
Over his last 10 games, Rhys Hoskins has gone deep four times while hitting .290. Hoskins has also driven in nine runs during this stretch. His 18 homers for the season is 13th in the league and the top mark for the Brewers. Hoskins also comes into the game on a seven-game hitting streak. William Contreras is batting .281 for the season and is 2nd on the team with 57 RBIs.
As a team, the Brewers are 6th in home batting average and have the 6th best on-base percentage in the league. Overall, they are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. So far, they have been a good home run hitting team, but their team isolated power of .146 is just 18th in the league.
Washington closed out their series vs. the Diamondbacks with a 5-4 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 9th inning before the Diamondbacks scored two runs in the bottom of the 9th. The Nationals were the +151 underdog on the money line going into this road game.
MacKenzie Gore put together a good start for the Nationals, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up just three runs on eight hits. He only had one strikeout in the outing and took the loss. Offensively, the Nationals scored their four runs on 10 hits and didn’t hit a home run.
Washington is hosting the Brewers today with an overall record of 49-60, and they are 16.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. The Nationals are in 4th place in the division and have gone 16-15 in divisional matchups. The team is looking to snap a four-game losing streak, and they lost the final three games of their series vs. the Diamondbacks.
At home, the Nationals are 23-27 this season, and they are 26-33 on the road. As the underdog, the Nationals are 39-51 this year, and they have lost four straight games as the underdog. Washington’s overall series record is 14-19-2, and they are coming off being swept by the Diamondbacks.
The Nationals have been a solid run line bet this season, going 62-47 overall. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 35-24 against the run line. As the underdog, they are 53-37 vs. the run line. Their average run margin for the season is -0.5 runs per game.
The Washington Nationals are playing at home against the Milwaukee Brewers today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 9 runs. The Nationals have a combined run average of 9.0 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 54-51. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, their record is 9-9-2. So far this season, 17.4% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs, and their current over streak is at 3 games.
Jake Irvin will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win vs. the Cardinals. In that outing, he went 5 1/3 innings and gave up just two earned runs. Looking back over his last four outings, Irvin has given up at least two earned runs in each of them. His record for the season is 8-8, and he has an ERA of 3.44. Opposing batters are hitting .224 off Irvin this season. Out of his 22 starts, he has 13 quality starts and is averaging 7.78 strikeouts per nine innings.
Washington’s offense is averaging 4.2 runs per game this season, which is 18th in the league. They have been a little better on the road, averaging 4.3 runs per game. The Nationals are 27th in home runs and have a team slugging percentage of just .370. However, they are 13th in batting average and have the 7th fewest strikeouts in the league.
CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. have been the team’s top power threats this season, with 15 and 11 home runs, respectively. Abrams comes into the game with a three-game hitting streak and is 4/12 in his last three games. Alex Call is also on a three-game hitting streak and is 4/8 in his last three games.
Our predicted final score for this one is a 6-4 win for the Nationals, and with them as the underdogs at +100, that’s the way we recommend playing this one.
Looking at the starters, Frankie Montas does have the highest strikeout projection among starters, but we have Jake Irvin finishing with five K’s, and Montas with seven.
Offensively, the Brewers are projected to finish with eight hits, compared to the Nationals with nine, and the Nationals are also projected to hit more home runs.
Another reason we like the Nationals to pick up the win is that we have Irvin finishing with a better chance to pick up the win than Montas.
Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- Take the Brewers on the moneyline
- The Nationals are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
Washington Nationals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Gallo | Out | Hamstring |
| Trevor Williams | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Jordan Weems | Out | Shin |
| Mason Thompson | Out | Elbow |
| Keibert Ruiz | Questionable | Groin |
| Josiah Gray | Out | Elbow |
| Cade Cavalli | Out | Elbow |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Yelich | Out | Back |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Bryan Hudson | Out | Oblique |
| Rob Zastryzny | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Trevor Megill | Out | Back |
| Enoli Paredes | Out | Forearm |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Dunn | Out | Back |
