Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Preview
Wednesday’s matchup between the Blue Jays and Orioles is set to get started at 12:35 PM ET from Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD. The Orioles are 1st in the AL East with a record of 64-44, while the Blue Jays are 5th in the division at 50-58.
Baltimore is the heavy favorite on the money line today, with their odds sitting at -242 compared to the Blue Jays at +198. The over/under line is at 9 runs, and the game can be seen on MASN.
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Blue Jays are 2-3. This includes going 2-3 vs. the runline.
- In the Orioles’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Orioles have a record of 6-4 straight-up, and have gone 5-5 against the runline.
- Looking at the Blue Jays’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 5-5 straight-up and 6-4 vs. the runline.
Baltimore cruised to a 6-2 win over the Blue Jays in the most recent game of this series. The Orioles had a huge 3rd inning, scoring all three of their runs. As for the Blue Jays, they scored their only two runs in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Orioles were favored at -212 on the money line.
Corbin Burnes pitched well for the Orioles in this one, going 6 2/3 innings and giving up just two earned runs. He finished the game with seven strikeouts and didn’t issue a walk. Chris Bassitt had a rough outing for the Blue Jays, giving up five earned runs in just four innings of work.
Ramón Urías and Anthony Santander each homered for the Orioles, while Colton Cowser scored twice and drove in two runs while going 2/5. Ryan O’Hearn also had a two RBI game at the plate.
Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction
Toronto is 5th in the AL East, trailing the Orioles by 14 games for the division lead. Overall, the Blue Jays are 50-58 as they play on the road today vs. the Orioles. Toronto is 24-30 on the road this season.
So far, the Blue Jays are 14-20 against other AL East teams. They have really struggled as the underdog this season, going 17-34, compared to 33-24 as the favorite. Toronto’s overall series record is 12-16-5, and they are losing their current series vs. the Orioles, with an overall record of 6-4 over their last 10 games.
When the Blue Jays win, they win big, with an average run margin of +3.1. In losses, they lose big, with an average run margin of -4.0. The Jays have a run line record of 51-57, with a -0.7 run differential on the season. They are 33-21 vs. the run line on the road, but just 18-36 at home.
The Toronto Blue Jays are on the road today against the Baltimore Orioles. The over/under line for the game is set at 9 runs, which is right on par with the combined run average for Blue Jays games this season. Toronto’s over/under record for the season is 58-47, and their average over/under line is 8 runs per game. When the line is set at 9 runs, the Blue Jays have gone 2-3-2 on the season. Only 2.8% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs, while 90.7% of their games have had lower lines.
Paolo Espino will be making his first start of the season for the Blue Jays, as he has made a pair of relief appearances so far. He went 2 2/3 innings in his first outing, giving up 4 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks. In his most recent outing, he went 2 innings and gave up 1 hit and struck out 2.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been on an absolute tear of late, going 18/35 in his last 10 games with five home runs and 10 RBIs. He is currently on a 13-game hitting streak and is 1st on the Blue Jays with a .312 batting average and 21 homers. George Springer is also near the top of the team’s home run leaderboard, with 13 homers, but he is batting just .226 for the season.
Overall, the Blue Jays are 24th in scoring at 4.1 runs per game. They have been a bit better on the road (4.2 RPG) than at home (4.0 RPG). As a team, they are batting .240, which is 14th in the league, and are 5th in the league in fewest strikeouts per game.
Baltimore is 64-44 overall this season, putting them in 1st place in the AL East. They hold a half-game lead over the Yankees and are 22-10 against other teams in the AL East. The Orioles have gone 4-6 across their last 10 games and are 2-1 in their series with the Blue Jays.
At home, the Orioles are 33-25 this season and have gone 31-19 on the road. As the favorite, Baltimore is 52-35 this season and 12-9 as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Orioles are 21-10-2, but they have dropped two straight series.
The Orioles have been a solid run line bet this season, going 58-50 overall. They have been slightly better on the road, going 30-20 compared to 28-30 at home. They have been an underdog in 21 games and have gone 15-6 in those contests. The average run margin in their wins is 3.8, while it is -3.5 in their losses.
Today’s over/under line of 9 runs for the Orioles-Blue Jays game is a bit higher than Baltimore’s season average of 8 runs per game. The over/under line has been set at 9 runs for 25 games this season, and the over/under record for those games is 11-11-3. The Orioles have gone over the line in 58 of their 98 games this season, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs.
Through 19 starts, Grayson Rodriguez has a record of 12-4 and an ERA of 3.82. He has made 10 quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow a homer. Against the Blue Jays, Rodriguez has made one appearance and gave up just one earned run in 6 2/3 innings of work. Looking back at his last four outings, Rodriguez has alternated between wins and losses. His last outing resulted in a no-decision, as he gave up two earned runs in five innings of work. The right-hander has a strikeout per nine innings figure of 9.92.
As a team, the Orioles are averaging 5 runs per game, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. Baltimore is also the league’s top home run-hitting team, and they have the best team slugging percentage in the league. Currently, they have five players with at least 20 homers.
Anthony Santander has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 31 homers are the 3rd most in the league. He has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/35 with four homers in his last nine games. Gunnar Henderson comes into the game on a six-game hitting streak and is batting .283 for the season with 28 homers.
Our prediction for the Blue Jays vs. Orioles matchup is to take the over, as we see the Orioles coming out on top with a final score of 6-4. However, with the money line payout sitting at -242, we think there is a lot of value in taking the over, as the line is currently sitting at 9 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Grayson Rodriguez is projected to finish with five strikeouts, which would put him as the 5th worst among starters. As for the Orioles lineup, they are projected to finish with the second most home runs on the day, and we have them finishing with 11 hits compared to the Blue Jays with nine.
Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips
- Take the Orioles on the moneyline
- The Orioles should also cover at -1.5
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
Baltimore Orioles Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Coulombe | Out | Elbow |
| Jorge Mateo | Out | Elbow |
| Tyler Wells | Out | Elbow |
| John Means | Out | Elbow |
| Kyle Bradish | Out | Elbow |
| Alexis Cruz | Out | Personal |
| Christopher Ramirez | Out | Personal |
| Isaiah Kearns | Out | Personal |
| Félix Bautista | Out | Elbow |
Toronto Blue Jays Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette | Out | Calf |
| Jordan Romano | Out | Elbow |
| Orelvis Martinez | Out | Suspension |
| Alejandro Kirk | Questionable | Elbow |
| Alek Manoah | Out | Elbow |
