Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Preview
The over/under line for Monday’s Blue Jays vs. Orioles matchup is at 9 runs, and the Orioles are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -191 compared to the Blue Jays at +158. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is set for 3:05 PM ET.
Toronto will be looking to extend their three-game winning streak, but they are 5th in the AL East with a record of 49-56. As for the Orioles, they are 1st in the AL East at 62-43. Zach Eflin is the Orioles’ starter, while the Blue Jays are sending Yariel Rodriguez to the mound.
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Blue Jays are 3-2. This includes going 4-1 vs. the runline.
- In the Orioles’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- The Orioles have a straight-up record of 4-6 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
- Looking at the Blue Jays’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 6-4 straight-up and 8-2 vs. the runline.
Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction
The Blue Jays’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Rangers, closing out their series with a 7-3 win. After allowing three runs to the Rangers in the top of the first, the Blue Jays responded with three runs of their own. Toronto went on to add another three runs in the 3rd inning.
José Berríos put together a good start for the Blue Jays, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run, and picking up the win. Toronto’s offense was carried by Daulton Varsho, who went 1/3 with a homer and two RBIs.
Toronto is 49-56 overall and is 13 games behind the Orioles for the AL East lead. The Blue Jays are also 5th in the division and trail the Rays by 4.5 games for the 4th spot in the AL East. They have gone just 13-18 in divisional games this year.
At home, the Blue Jays are 26-28 and have gone 23-28 on the road. Toronto has won three straight games, and they are 16-32 as the underdog this year. As the favorite, the Blue Jays are 33-24, and their overall series record is 12-16-5.
The Blue Jays are 50-55 against the run line this season, including a 32-19 mark on the road. Their average run differential is -0.7 runs per game, but they have been a profitable bet on the run line as an underdog, going 26-22. Their average run differential in wins is +3.1, compared to -4.0 in losses.
The Blue Jays are on the road against the Orioles today, with the over/under line set at 9 runs. Toronto has had a combined run average of 8.9 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 56-46. Their games have averaged an over/under line of 8 runs, and when the line has been set at 9 runs, their record is 2-3-2. Only 1.9% of their games this season have had over/under lines set at 9 runs, and their games have gone over the total in each of their last five contests.
Right-hander Yariel Rodríguez is starting for the Blue Jays today as he faces the Orioles on the road. He has made nine starts this season and has a record of 1-3 with a 3.69 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .204 this season off Rodríguez, and he has a WHIP of 1.26. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had gone six innings without giving up a run. So far, he has made two quality starts.
Over the past six games, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone 9/19 with three homers and five RBIs. This has extended his hitting streak to 10 games. Justin Turner also has a three-game hitting streak coming into today’s game, and he has gone 13/23 over his last six games.
Guerrero Jr. is not only leading the Blue Jays with 64 RBIs, but his 19 homers are also the best mark on the team and 13th in the league. George Springer and Daulton Varsho are also near the top of the Blue Jays home run leaderboard, but both are batting under .230 for the season.
Ryan Mountcastle had a big game at the plate for the Orioles in their most recent game vs. the Padres, going 2/5 with four RBIs. The Orioles really broke things open with a six-run 3rd inning. Mountcastle’s big hit was a three-run homer, and the Orioles added another three runs to their lead before the Padres could get on the board. Baltimore’s offense was held scoreless the rest of the way, but they still picked up the 8-6 win.
Albert Suarez got the start for the Orioles, going 4 2/3 innings, and picked up the win. He also issued three walks and gave up three earned runs. Cionel Perez closed things out in the 9th, and the Orioles also got a save from Yennier Cano.
The Orioles kick off their series vs. the Blue Jays with a record of 62-43, good for 1st place in the AL East. Currently, they hold a 1.0 game lead over the Yankees for the division lead. Baltimore’s overall record includes a mark of 20-9 in divisional games this season.
At home, the Orioles are 31-24 this season, and they have gone 31-19 on the road. This year, the Orioles have really played well as the favorite, putting up a mark of 50-34. As the underdog, Baltimore is 12-9 this season. The team’s overall series record is 21-10-2, but they have dropped two straight series.
When the Orioles win, they do so by an average of 3.7 runs per game, which has helped them to a 56-49 run line record. However, they have been a better bet on the road, where they are 30-20 vs. the run line. When they are the favorite, they are just 41-43 vs. the run line, while they are 15-6 as the underdog.
The Orioles have been a consistent over team this season, with a combined run average of 9.2 runs per game. Their over/under record is 56-39, and when the line is set at 9 runs, they are 11-11-3. The over has hit in six straight games for Baltimore, and the average over/under line for their games this season is 8 runs.
Zach Eflin gets the start for the Orioles today and comes in with a record of 5-7 and an ERA of 4.09. So far this year, he has made 19 starts, and opponents are batting .260 off the right-hander. Eflin has turned in six quality starts this year and is averaging 7.12 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. Eflin’s most recent home outing was on July 10th, where he gave up one earned run in seven innings of work.
Heading into today’s game, the Orioles are the top home run hitting team in the league and have the league’s top slugging percentage. As a team, they are averaging 5 runs per game, which is 3rd in the league. Not only are they the top home run-hitting team in the league, but they also have the league’s best isolated power figure. Baltimore’s team batting average of .252 is 7th in the MLB.
Anthony Santander and Gunnar Henderson are the Orioles’ top two home run hitters this season, and they are also 1-2 in RBIs. Santander has gone 5/37 over his last nine games, with five homers and 10 RBIs. Colton Cowser has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 12/33 with two homers in this stretch. Cowser is also on a nine-game hitting streak.
Our prediction for the Blue Jays vs. Orioles matchup is to take the Orioles to pick up the win. However, with the money line payout for the Orioles sitting at -191, we recommend taking the over, with the line being set at 9 runs.
If you’re looking for a starting pitcher to pick up the win, Zach Eflin is a much better option than Yariel Rodríguez. Eflin is projected to finish with five strikeouts compared to Rodriguez with four.
Looking at the lineups, the Orioles are projected to finish with nine hits compared to the Blue Jays with eight. However, the Blue Jays are projected to finish with seven strikeouts, the fewest in the league today.
Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips
- Take the Orioles on the moneyline
- The Orioles should also cover at -1.5
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
Baltimore Orioles Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Coulombe | Out | Elbow |
| Jorge Mateo | Out | Elbow |
| Tyler Wells | Out | Elbow |
| John Means | Out | Elbow |
| Kyle Bradish | Out | Elbow |
| Alexis Cruz | Out | Personal |
| Christopher Ramirez | Out | Personal |
| Isaiah Kearns | Out | Personal |
| Félix Bautista | Out | Elbow |
Toronto Blue Jays Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kiermaier | Questionable | Hip |
| Bo Bichette | Out | Calf |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | Out | Knee |
| Jordan Romano | Out | Elbow |
| Orelvis Martinez | Out | Suspension |
| Alek Manoah | Out | Elbow |
