New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Preview
At 1:40 PM ET, the Braves and Mets face off in an NL East matchup. This one is being played at Citi Field in New York, and the Mets are the slight favorite on the money line (-110). The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.
Reynaldo Lopez will go for the Braves, and he is facing off against David Peterson. The Braves are 55-48 and are in 2nd place in the NL East, while the Mets are 55-49 and are 3rd in the division. This game can be seen on BSSE.
Check out BetCoco for New York Mets – Atlanta Braves odds
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Braves are 2-3. This includes going 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Mets have a 4-1 (SU) record, along with a 3-2 record in their last five home contests.
- In the past ten games, when playing as the favorite, the Braves have a record of 4-6, while as the underdog, they have a record of 1-9.
- In their last ten games, the Mets have a record of 7-3 as the favorite and 6-4 as the underdog.
The most recent game o of this Mets and Braves series came right down to the end, as the Mets rallied late but still fell short with the Braves winning 4-3 on the road. Heading into the game, the Braves were at +102 on the money line.
Spencer Schwellenbach pitched well for the Braves in this one, going seven innings and striking out 11 without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Tylor Megill went six innings and took the loss for the Mets.
Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario each homered for the Braves, while Adam Duvall went 2/4 with an RBI. Matt Olson also had a two-hit game and scored a run for Atlanta’s offense.
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Prediction
With an overall record of 55-48, the Braves are 2nd in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by 9.5 games. So far, they are 15-14 in divisional matchups. The Braves are looking to pick up a win today, as they have dropped seven of their last ten games and are 1-2 in this series vs. the Mets.
At home, the Braves have gone 30-21 this season, and they are just above .500 at 25-27 on the road. This year, the Braves have been favored in 88 of their games, going 50-38 in those games. As for their games as the underdog, they are just 5-10.
Atlanta has been a tough team to bet on this season, as they are just 46-57 against the run line. They are 25-27 vs. the run line on the road and have failed to cover in their last five games. They are 39-49 vs. the run line as the favorite and 7-8 as the underdog.
The Braves are in New York to take on the Mets today. The O/U line is set at 8 runs, which is right around their average line for the season. Their games have averaged 7.9 runs per game, and they have gone over the total in 36 of their 62 games this season when the line is set at 8 runs.
Right-hander Reynaldo López gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Mets on the road. He has made 18 starts this year and has a record of 7-4 with a 2.12 ERA. So far, López has turned in 10 quality starts and is averaging 8.85 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up four earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One positive note is that López has a better ERA on the road at 2.73 compared to 1.75 at home.
Marcell Ozuna has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 30 home runs are 3rd in the MLB and leads the Braves. He is also 2nd in the league with 82 RBIs. Ozuna has been even better of late, hitting four home runs in his last eight games while batting .357. Matt Olson has also been swinging a hot bat of late, as he comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak.
For the season, the Braves offense is averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 20th in the league. As a team, they are batting .239 and have the 8th most home runs in the league. Overall, their slugging percentage and OPS are both around the league average.
With a record of 55-49, the Mets trail the Phillies by 10 games for the NL East lead. Currently, they are 3rd in the division, just a half-game behind the Braves for the 2nd spot in the NL East. So far, they have gone 20-15 in divisional matchups.
At home, the Mets are 28-27 this season and 27-22 on the road. New York has won three straight games as the underdog, and they are 22-22 as the underdog overall. As the favorite, the Mets are 33-27 this year, and their overall series record is 16-12-6.
The Mets have been a solid run line bet on the road this season, going 27-22 against the run line. Their average run margin on the road is +0.4, and they have covered the run line in three straight games as the underdog. Overall, the Mets are 50-54 against the run line this season, with an average run margin of +0.2 runs per game.
Today’s over/under line of 8 runs is right on par with the Mets’ season average of 8 runs per game. The Mets have played 101 games this season, and 53 of them have had over/under lines set at 8 runs or higher. In those games, the over has hit at a 12-5 clip, which is a 70.6% success rate. The Mets have an overall over/under record of 55-46 this season, and their games have averaged 9.5 runs per game.
Left-hander David Peterson gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Braves at home. He has made nine starts this season and has a record of 5-0 with a 3.14 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .254 this season off Peterson, and he has a WHIP of 1.48. In his nine starts, Peterson has turned in four quality starts and is averaging 6.66 strikeouts per nine innings. Peterson has been solid at home, coming in with a record of 2-0 and an ERA of 3.22. He has allowed a total of five home runs this season.
Heading into today’s game, the Mets are 7th in the league in scoring, averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, putting up 5.3 runs per contest. As a team, New York is also near the top of the league in home runs and have the 8th best team batting average in the MLB.
Francisco Lindor has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/35 over his last eight games with five homers and 10 RBIs. For the season, he is batting .254 with 22 homers and 62 RBIs. Brandon Nimmo has also been a key run producer for the Mets, as his 63 RBIs are the best mark on the team and 12th in the league.
For this Braves vs. Mets matchup, we really like the Mets to pick up the win at home. And with the money line payout sitting at -110, this is the bet we recommend making.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have David Peterson finishing with six strikeouts compared to Reynaldo López with five. And with Peterson finishing with a better strikeout projection and also giving up fewer runs than López, we like him as a potential DFS play as well.
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Betting Tips
- Take the Braves on the moneyline
- On the run line we like Mets (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | Out | Knee |
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Harrison Bader | Questionable | Ankle |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Calf |
| Reed Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Dedniel Núñez | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Scott | Out | Elbow |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Atlanta Braves Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Matzek | Out | Elbow |
| Whit Merrifield | Questionable | Finger |
| Ozzie Albies | Out | Wrist |
| Max Fried | Out | Forearm |
| Huascar Ynoa | Out | Elbow |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | Out | Knee |
| Angel Perdomo | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Kerr | Out | Elbow |
| Michael Harris II | Out | Hamstring |
| Spencer Strider | Out | Elbow |
| Hurston Waldrep | Out | Elbow |
