Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction & Betting Tips 7/26/2024

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Preview

First pitch for Friday’s Yankees vs. Red Sox matchup is set for 7:10 PM ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA. The forecast looks good in Boston with clear skies and temperatures in the mid 80’s. NESN is carrying this game on TV.

The Yankees are looking to snap a two-game losing streak and are starting Nestor Cortes, while the Red Sox have won two straight and are 3rd in the AL East with a record of 54-47. New York is 2nd in the division at 60-44. The money line odds have the Yankees at -126 compared to the Red Sox at +107. The over/under line is currently 9.5 runs.

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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Trends and Key Stats

• Across their last five road games, the Yankees are 3-2. This includes going 2-3 vs. the runline.
• On the opposing side, the Red Sox have a 1-4 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
• Looking back on their last ten games as the favorite, the Yankees are 4-6 straight-up and 3-7 vs. the runline.
• When playing as the underdog, the Red Sox have gone 4-6 against the runline, with a straight-up record of 6-4 over their last ten games.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction

The Yankees will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Mets with a 12-3 loss. New York was actually the heavy favorite at -171 at home but fell behind big early, as the Mets scored six times in the 4th.

Offensively, the Yankees only had three fewer hits than the Mets but scored just three runs. All of their runs came in the 1st and 3rd innings. Gleyber Torres and Juan Soto each had two hits. Torres hit a homer, and Soto scored one run and drove in one.

The Yankees are 2nd in the AL East, two games behind the Orioles for the division lead. So far, they are 18-21 in AL East matchups. New York is 60-44 overall, and they lost the first two games of their series vs. the Mets. Currently, they are 4-6 over their last 10 games.

At home, the Yankees are 27-23 this season, and they have gone 33-21 on the road. As the road favorite, the Yankees have put together a record of 20-17 this year. Overall, they are 46-38 when favored and 14-6 as the underdog. So far, their series record is 18-10-4.

When the Yankees win, they win big, with an average run margin of 4.1 runs per game. But when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.4 runs per game. Their overall run line record is 54-50, but they are 16-4 against the run line as underdogs. They are 31-23 against the run line on the road, where they have a scoring margin of 1.4 runs per game.

Today’s game between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox has an over/under line of 9.5 runs. The combined run average for Yankees games this season is 8.9, and their over/under record is 54-46. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 9.5 runs is 5-3. Only 1.9% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9.5 runs, with just two games having higher lines. The vast majority of their games, 90.4%, have had lower lines than 9.5 runs.

New York is sending left-hander Nestor Cortes to the mound today vs. the Red Sox. He has made 21 starts this season and has a record of 4-9 with a 3.99 ERA. Cortes’ WHIP for the season is currently 1.16. In his last outing, he took the loss, going 4 1/3 innings vs. the Rays and giving up six earned runs. Cortes has given up at least one homer in three straight outings. One positive note is that he has a lower ERA at home (2.84) compared to on the road (6.31).

Heading into today’s game, the Yankees are 4th in the league in runs per game at 4.9. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league’s 2nd best home run hitting team and have the top on-base percentage in the league. New York also has the 3rd best team OPS in the MLB.

Juan Soto and Aaron Judge have been two of the league’s top hitters this season, with Judge leading the league in home runs (35) and RBIs (89). Soto is right behind him in both categories, with 26 homers and 72 RBIs. Soto has been especially hot of late, going 13/25 in his last six games with three homers.

Boston closed out their series vs. the Rockies with a 20-7 loss. Heading into the game, the Red Sox were the slight favorite at -145 on the money line. Things really got away from the Red Sox in the 3rd inning, as the Rockies scored 10 runs in the inning. Boston’s offense scored their only seven runs in the 2nd.

Nick Pivetta got the start for the Red Sox and took the loss. He only lasted 2 2/3 innings, giving up seven earned runs. Jarren Duran was hot at the plate, going 3/5 with a homer and three RBIs.

Boston hosts the Yankees today with an overall record of 54-47, and they are 6.5 games behind the Orioles for the AL East lead. So far, they have gone 13-11 in divisional games. The Red Sox lost two of three in their most recent series vs. the Rockies.

At home, the Red Sox are 24-25 this season compared to 30-22 on the road. As the home underdog, Boston has gone 7-9 this year, and they are 23-26 as the underdog overall. As the favorite, the Red Sox are 31-21 this season. Heading into today’s game, they have a two-game home winning streak, and their overall record is 15-12-5 in series this year.

When betting on the Red Sox run line, it’s been a better proposition to take them on the road. Boston is 29-23 against the run line away from Fenway Park, but just 18-31 versus the run line at home. The Red Sox have an overall run line record of 47-54, with an average run differential of +0.3 runs per game.

When the Boston Red Sox play at home, the over/under line is set at an average of 9 runs per game. The combined run average in those games is 9.2 runs per game, and the Red Sox have a 48-47 over/under record for the season. When the over/under line is set at 9.5 runs, the Red Sox have a 5-7 record in those games. Only 9.9% of their games have had a higher over/under line than 9.5 runs.

Brayan Bello gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Yankees at home. So far this season, he has made 18 starts and has a record of 10-5 with an ERA of 5.27. Bello’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.44. In his last outing, Bello finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Bello has a total of six quality starts this season and is averaging 8.66 strikeouts per nine innings.

Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are 3rd in team batting average at .257 and are also among the league leaders in home runs. Overall, they are averaging 4.8 runs per game, but that number jumps to 5.1 runs per game when they are on the road. Boston’s offense has been really good at avoiding strikeouts this season, as they are 24th in the league in strikeouts per game.

Over his last nine games, Jarren Duran has been on fire, going 17/39 with three homers and 10 RBIs. This has helped him move into 3rd on the team with 13 home runs. For the season, he is batting .292. Tyler O’Neill has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 11/31 with four homers in his last seven games. O’Neill’s 20 homers this season is 2nd on the team and 9th in the league.

There are a couple of ways you could look to bet on this Yankees vs. Red Sox game, but our recommended pick is to take the Red Sox on the money line at +107. We have the Red Sox winning this one by a score of 6-5.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Brayan Bello finishing with five strikeouts compared to Nestor Cortes with six. However, we have Bello going 6 innings and Cortes going just five.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Tips

• Take the Yankees on the moneyline
• On the run line we like Red Sox (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Boston Red Sox Injury Report

New York Yankees Injury Report