Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction & Betting Tips 7/26/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Preview

At 6:40 PM ET, the Phillies and Guardians square off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, and the Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line (-174). The Guardians are +146 and will start Ben Lively. The Phillies are starting Cristopher Sanchez.

The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and BSGL will be televising this one. The Guardians are 61-41 and in 1st in the AL Central, while the Phillies are 64-38 and in 1st in the NL East.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cleveland Guardians Trends and Key Stats

• The Guardians are 1-4 across their last five road games. They have gone 1-4 vs. the runline.
• Conversely, the Phillies have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 2-3 record in their last five home games.
• Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Phillies have a straight-up record of 4-6, while going 4-6 against the runline.
• The Guardians have a 2-8 straight-up record and a 3-7 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Cleveland closed out their series vs. the Tigers with a 3-0 loss. Heading into the game, the Guardians were the heavy favorite at -149. Things really got away from the Guardians in the 2nd inning, as the Tigers scored three runs in the inning. Cleveland’s offense didn’t score their first run until the 6th.

Gavin Williams put together a good start for the Guardians, going six innings and giving up just three runs on six hits. He also issued only two walks and struck out nine Tigers. Despite pitching well, he was still tagged with the loss.

Cleveland is on the road today to take on the Phillies with an overall record of 61-41, which has them leading the AL Central by 4.5 games. The Guardians are coming off a series split vs. the Tigers and are 4-6 across their last 10 games. At home, the Guardians have gone 33-15 this year while posting a 28-26 mark on the road.

The Guardians have an overall series record of 20-10-3 this year, and they are 17-15 in divisional matchups. Cleveland has dropped seven straight games as the underdog, and they are 16-18 as the underdog overall. As the favorite, the Guardians have gone 45-23 this year.

When the Guardians are the favorite, they are 29-39 against the run line. When they are the underdog, they are 20-14.

The Cleveland Guardians are on the road today to face the Philadelphia Phillies, with the over/under line set at 8.5 runs. This line matches their combined run average for the season. The Guardians have a 49-47 over/under record this season, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the line has been set at 8.5 runs, their over/under record is 14-13. This season, 55 of their games have had lower over/under lines than 8.5 runs, and their games have gone under the total in their last two contests.

Right-hander Ben Lively gets the start for the Guardians today as he faces his former team, the Phillies. Lively’s most recent outing came on July 21st, where he took the loss, giving up two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. He has finished with a no-decision in one of his last three outings. Lively has made 17 starts this year and has a record of 8-6 with a 3.57 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .233 off Lively this season, and his ERA on the road is 4.39 compared to 2.68 at home.

Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been the Guardians’ top power threats this season, as Ramirez’s 24 homers lead the team and are 5th in the league, while Naylor’s 22 long balls are 7th in the MLB. Ramirez also has the 2nd most RBIs in the league, with 82, while Naylor is 5th in the league with 72 RBIs. Ramirez comes into the game batting .273 for the season, and Naylor is at .238.

Over his last six games, Ramirez has gone 6/23 with three RBIs, while Jhonkensy Noel has gone 3/13 with a homer and an RBI in his last five games. Steven Kwan is also looking to get things going, as he is batting just .174 in his last six games.

The Phillies will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Twins with a 5-4 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 7th inning before the Twins scored three runs in the bottom of the 7th. Philadelphia was the -135 favorite on the money line going into the game.

Aaron Nola was on the mound for the Phillies, going six innings and giving up just one earned run, and striking out six. However, the Phillies couldn’t close things out, and Gregory Soto took the loss out of the bullpen. The Phillies also wasted a big game from Trea Turner, who homered in the 2nd inning, going 2/5.

With a record of 64-38, the Phillies lead the NL East by 9.5 games over the Braves. The Phillies lost two of three in their most recent series vs. the Twins. So far, they are 15-10 against other teams in the NL East.

At home, the Phillies are 37-16 this season, and they are just above .500 at 27-22 on the road. As the favorite, the Phillies have gone 56-30 and 36-14 when favored at home. Philadelphia’s overall series record is 19-11-5, and they have dropped three straight series.

When the Phillies win, they have done so by an average of 3.8 runs per game, which has helped them to a run line record of 52-50. They are 27-26 against the run line at home, where they have a scoring margin of 1.6 runs per game. Overall, they have an average run margin of 1.1 runs per game this season.

The Phillies are 7-11 when the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, and the combined run average in their games this season is 8.7 runs per game. Overall, Philadelphia has a 46-51 over/under record, and the average line for their games this season has been set at 8 runs. Today’s over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, and the Phillies have played 26 games with a higher line this season, accounting for 25.5% of their games.

Through 19 starts, Cristopher Sánchez has a record of 7-5 and an ERA of 2.97. He has pitched much better at home this season, coming in with a record of 6-1 and an ERA of 1.62. Sánchez has made 10 quality starts this year, along with one shutout and one complete game. In his last outing, Sánchez took the loss, giving up two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Sánchez’s ERA for the month of July is 5.65.

Philadelphia comes into today’s game as one of the league’s top offensive teams, averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 5th in the MLB. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.4 runs per game. Overall, they are the league’s 3rd best hitting team, with a team batting average of .257. The Phillies are also among the league leaders in walks, on-base percentage, and slugging.

Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are the Phillies’ top power threats, with Harper’s 23 homers leading the team and Schwarber’s 19 being the 2nd most. Alec Bohm has been the team’s top run producer, as his 71 RBIs are the best on the team and 6th in the league. In his last five games, Harper has gone just 4/22 with two homers.

Our prediction for the Guardians vs. Phillies matchup is to take the over, with the line sitting at 8.5 runs. We see this one finishing with a score of 6-5 in favor of the Phillies, giving us some wiggle room with the over/under line.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Cristopher Sanchez getting the win for the Phillies. If you’re looking for a payout, the Phillies money line is sitting at -174, and with our predicted score, there is a bit more value on the over.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Tips

• Take the Phillies on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Guardians (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians Injury Report