Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Betting Tips 7/23/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview

At 7:40 PM ET, the Phillies and Twins square off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Target Field in Minneapolis, and the Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -159 compared to the Twins at +135. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.

Phillies starter Zack Wheeler will face off against Simeon Woods Richardson for the Twins. The Phillies are currently 1st in the NL East, while the Twins are 3rd in the AL Central. BSN is carrying this one on TV.

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Minnesota Twins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats

• 1-4 is the record of Phillies in their last five road games. They have also gone 1-4 vs. the runline.
• In the Twins’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
• Looking back on their last ten games as the favorite, the Phillies are 5-5 straight-up and 4-6 vs. the runline.
• As the underdog, the Twins have gone 3-7 vs. the runline and 5-5 straight-up.

It was all Minnesota in the last game of this series, as the Twins took down the Phillies by a score of 7-2. The Twins offense only had two more hits than the Phillies and struck out eight times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were at -103 on the money line.

Both teams scored two runs in the first inning, and the Phillies could only muster one more run in the 5th inning. As for the Twins, they scored the game’s go-ahead run in the 5th and tacked on three insurance runs in the 8th.

Carlos Santana and Max Kepler each homered for the Twins, while Manuel Margot scored twice and drove in two runs while going 2/5. Ryan Jeffers also had a two-hit game and drove in a run.

Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Philadelphia leads the NL East with a record of 63-37, which puts them 8.5 games ahead of the Braves. The Phillies are on the road today to take on the Twins and are 15-10 in divisional games this year.

So far, the Phillies have gone 37-16 at home compared to 26-21 on the road. This season, the Phillies have really taken care of business as the favorite, going 55-29. As the underdog, Philadelphia is 8-8 this year. Their overall series record is 19-10-5 but note that they have dropped two straight series.

When the Phillies win, they do so by an average of 3.8 runs per game, which is a big reason why they are 51-49 against the run line this season. Their overall run differential is +1.1 runs per game, and they have a +0.5 run differential on the road. They are 24-23 against the run line on the road and 27-26 at home. As the favorite, they are 43-41 against the run line, while they are 8-8 as the underdog.

Philadelphia is playing on the road against the Minnesota Twins today, and the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The Phillies have a combined run average of 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 45-50. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, and their record when the line is set at 8 runs is 15-11-1. Overall, 44.0% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs or higher, while 29.0% have had lines set at fewer than 8 runs.

Phillies starter Zack Wheeler has been tough to hit this year, coming into the game with a record of 10-4 and an ERA of 2.70. Wheeler has made 19 starts this year and has turned in 14 quality starts. His WHIP for the season is an impressive 0.99. The last time he took the mound, Wheeler picked up the win, going five innings and giving up just one earned run on three hits. In that outing, he finished with seven strikeouts. Wheeler has allowed a total of 11 homers this year. Per nine innings, he is averaging 9.72 strikeouts and just 2.7 walks.

Heading into today’s game, the Phillies are 4th in the MLB in runs scored at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. Overall, they have the league’s 6th best home run total and are batting .258 as a team, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been a big reason for the team’s power numbers, as Harper’s 23 homers are 6th in the league, and Schwarber’s 19 is 10th.

Harper and Schwarber aren’t just hitting for power, as Harper is batting .297 and Schwarber comes in at .241. Alec Bohm has been the team’s most consistent hitter this season, with a batting average of .296 and a team-leading 71 RBIs. Trea Turner has been on fire for the Phillies, going 14/39 in his last 10 games with five homers.

Minnesota is 55-44 overall, which has them four games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. The Twins took over the division lead briefly, but they have gone just 5-5 across their last ten games. So far, they have gone 19-13 against other teams in the AL Central.

At home, the Twins are 28-20 this season, and they are just above .500 at 27-24 on the road. As the favorite, Minnesota has gone 44-26 and 11-18 as the underdog. They have an overall series record of 19-11-2 but have dropped two straight series.

The Twins have been a solid run line bet on the road this season, going 28-23 against the run line. Their average run margin in road games is +0.4, and they have covered the run line in five straight games as the underdog. Overall, the Twins are 47-52 against the run line this season, with an average run margin of +0.5 runs per game.

Minnesota’s over/under record for the season is 50-47, and the over has hit in three straight games. The Twins have played 39 games with higher over/under lines than today’s 8, and the over has gone 7-14-2 in games with an 8-run line. Their games have averaged 9.3 runs per game this season.

Simeon Woods Richardson gets the start for the Twins today and comes in with a record of 3-1 and ERA of 3.51. He has made 16 starts this year and has pitched well, turning in five quality starts and averaging 7.79 strikeouts per nine innings. Woods Richardson’s last outing came on July 13th, where he went 4 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, and finished with a no-decision. He has not taken a loss since June 15th. Overall, he has been solid at home, with an ERA of 3.85 compared to 3.66 on the road.

Carlos Correa has been one of the league’s top hitters this season, batting .308 with 13 home runs, which is 2nd on the team. His 47 RBIs are the best mark on the Twins. Ryan Jeffers and Carlos Santana are tied for the team lead in homers at 14, with Jeffers batting just .238 and Santana at .245. Jeffers also leads the team in RBIs.

Over his last six games, Carlos Santana has gone 6/21 with two homers and four RBIs, while Max Kepler has gone 7/21 with four runs scored. Byron Buxton has struggled of late, going just 4/18 in his last five games.

There are a few ways you could look to bet on this Phillies vs. Twins matchup, but we are recommending that you take the Twins to win straight up at +135. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Twins, giving us a little bit of wiggle room if you wanted to take the Twins on the run line.

If you are looking for a starting pitcher to have a big game, Simeon Woods Richardson is projected to finish with five strikeouts, which would have him ranked 18th among starters. As for Zack Wheeler, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which would have him ranked ninth.

Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips

• Take the Phillies on the moneyline
• The Twins are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Minnesota Twins Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report