Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction & Betting Tips 7/23/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview

At 6:40 PM ET, the Cardinals and Pirates will square off in an NL Central matchup. This one is taking place at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, and the Pirates are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -180. The Cardinals have a record of 52-48 and they are 2nd in the NL Central, while the Pirates are 3rd in the division with an overall record of 51-49.

The over/under line for Tuesday’s game is sitting at 7.5 runs, and the forecast in Pittsburgh calls for scattered clouds and temperatures in the mid-80s. Lance Lynn is starting for the Cardinals, and he is facing off against Paul Skenes.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals Trends and Key Stats

• The Cardinals are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 5-0 vs. the runline.
• Conversely, the Pirates have achieved a 4-1 (SU) record and 3-2 record in their last five home games.
• Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Pirates have a straight-up record of 8-2, while going 4-6 against the runline.
• Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Cardinals have a 5-5 straight-up record and a 8-2 record vs. the runline.

Pittsburgh picked up a 2-1 win over the Cardinals in the most recent game of this series. The Pirates had a two-run 3rd inning, and the Cardinals could only muster one run in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Pirates were favored at -122 on the money line.

Mitch Keller started for the Pirates and picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with three strikeouts but issued two walks. Aroldis Chapman got the save out of the bullpen.

Andre Pallante only went six innings for the Cardinals but gave up just one run on three hits. He finished the game with three strikeouts but issued two walks. John King took the loss.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

St. Louis is 52-48 overall heading into today’s road matchup vs. the Pirates. The Cardinals trail the Brewers by five games in the NL Central and are 15-15 in divisional games this year. The Cardinals have an overall series record of 16-12-3, and they have won two straight series on the road.

At home, the Cardinals are 26-22 this year, and they have gone 26-26 on the road. So far, they have been slightly better as the favorite, going 28-23, compared to 24-25 as the underdog. St. Louis’ is 4-6 over their last 10 games and lost the series opener vs. the Pirates.

St. Louis has been a .500 team against the run line on the road this season, but they have been on a roll recently, covering the run line in six straight road games. They have been a much better bet as an underdog, going 32-17 against the run line in those games. Their average run differential is -0.3 runs per game, but it jumps to 2.6 runs in their wins and -3.5 runs in their losses.

St. Louis has seen the over hit in 47 of their 97 games this season, but the under has hit in two straight games. The Cardinals have seen a combined 8.6 runs per game this year, and the over/under line for today’s game is set at 7.5 runs. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs this season, and 76% of their games have had higher lines than today’s 7.5-run total.

Lance Lynn gets the start for the Cardinals today as he faces off against the Pirates on the road. He has made 19 starts this season and has a record of 5-4 with an ERA of 4.39. Lynn’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.39. In his last outing, he gave up 10 earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings of work. Before that, Lynn had picked up the win in three straight outings. Lynn’s ERA on the road is 6.85 compared to 3.99 at home. He has allowed a total of 14 home runs this season.

St. Louis has been just an average offensive team this season, as they are 21st in runs per game (4.2) and have the 10th best team batting average in the league. However, they are just 17th in home runs and have a collective OPS of .698, which is also 18th in the MLB. One area where they have been strong is in terms of their team BABIP, as they are 6th in the league in this category.

Right fielder Alec Burleson has been one of the Cardinals’ top hitters this season, as he is batting .293 and is 15th in the league with 59 RBIs. He has also gone deep 18 times, which is the 2nd best mark on the team. Burleson has been even better of late, hitting 15/41 (.366) over his last 10 games, with four homers and 14 RBIs. Brendan Donovan has been a consistent hitter for the Cardinals this season, batting .272 with nine homers.

Pittsburgh is 51-49 overall and trails the Brewers by six games in the NL Central. Currently, they are 3rd in the division and have gone 16-14 against other teams in the NL Central. The Pirates are riding a seven-game winning streak as the favorite, and they are 22-19 overall when favored this year.

At home, the Pirates are 25-25 this year and 26-24 on the road. Pittsburgh has won three straight series, and their overall series record is 14-12-5 this year. The Pirates have won two straight series on the road.

When the Pirates win, they tend to do so by a wide margin, as their average run differential in victories is +3.3. However, when they lose, they lose by an average of -3.6 runs per game. Despite an overall run differential of -0.1 runs per game, they have a run line record of 55-45, including a 40-19 mark as an underdog.

When the Pittsburgh Pirates play at home, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, and their games have averaged 8.4 runs per game this season. Overall, the Pirates have gone over the total in 46 of their 99 games this season, and their games have averaged 8 runs per game. The under has hit in each of their last three games.

Right-hander Paul Skenes gets the start for the Pirates today vs. the Cardinals and comes into the game with a record of 6-0 and an ERA of 1.90. So far this season, he has made 11 starts, and opponents are batting .198 off Skenes this year. Skenes has turned in nine quality starts this year and is averaging 12.08 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Skenes went seven innings, picking up the win and not allowing a run. Before that, he had given up at least one homer in three straight outings. Skenes has not lost since May 17th.

Heading into today’s game, the Pirates offense is averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. They have been slightly better on the road this season, averaging 4.4 runs per game. As a team, the Pirates are batting just .233, which is 18th in the league, and they are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. However, they do have a few hitters who have been swinging the bat well of late.

Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz have been the Pirates’ top home run hitters this season, with Reynolds leading the team with 18 homers and Cruz right behind him with 15. Reynolds is also batting .288 for the season and has gone 12/31 in his last eight games, with one homer and five RBIs. Cruz has also been swinging the bat well of late, going 9/29 in his last seven games, with 10 RBIs.

Our prediction for today’s Cardinals vs. Pirates game is that the Pirates will come out on top by a score of 6-5. However, with the Pirates being at -180 on the money line, we see the better value being with the over/under line, which is currently sitting at 7.5 runs. We have the Pirates winning by a score of 6-5, giving you a little wiggle room on the over/under line.

Looking at today’s starters, we have Lance Lynn finishing with six strikeouts compared to Paul Skenes with six as well. If you’re looking for a player prop bet, you could look at the over/under line for either of these two pitchers.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips

• Take the Pirates on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Cardinals (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report