Cleveland Guardians vs San Diego Padres Prediction & Betting Tips 7/21/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs San Diego Padres Preview

Michael King is starting for the Padres on Sunday, and he is facing off against Ben Lively and the Guardians. The Guardians are the slight favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -113 compared to the Padres at -105. First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 1:40 PM ET, and the over/under line is at 8 runs.

This interleague matchup is being televised on BSGL, and the Guardians come in with a record of 59-38, while the Padres are 51-50 and are 3rd in the NL West. Cleveland is also in first place in the AL Central.

Check out BetCoco for Cleveland Guardians – San Diego Padres odds

Cleveland Guardians vs. San Diego Padres Trends and Key Stats

• Over the course of their previous five away games, the Padres have recorded a 3-2 record, with a 3-2 performance on the runline.
• Conversely, the Guardians have achieved a 1-4 (SU) record and 1-4 record in their last five home games.
• Over the last ten games, Padres has a record of 5-5 when playing as favorites and 6-4 when playing as underdogs.
• The Guardians are 6-4 (favorite) and 2-8 (underdog).

San Diego cruised to a 7-0 win over the Guardians in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 4th inning, scoring all seven of their runs. As for the Guardians, they only had one hit and didn’t score a run until the 8th inning.

Dylan Cease started for the Padres and picked up the win, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with 10 strikeouts but issued a costly home run in the 4th inning. On the other side, Gavin Williams got the start for the Guardians and took the loss, giving up three earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings of work.

At the plate, David Peralta and Jake Cronenworth each homered for the Padres. Peralta, Luis Campusano, and Jackson Merrill each had two hits and two RBIs. Xander Bogaerts also had a two-hit game for San Diego.

Cleveland Guardians vs San Diego Padres Prediction

San Diego is right at .500 with a record of 51-50 as they take on the Guardians today. The Padres are on the road, and they trail the Dodgers by eight games in the NL West. So far, they have gone just 15-17 in divisional games this year.

The Padres will be looking to pick up a win today, as they have dropped seven of their last 10 games. San Diego has lost three straight series and their overall series record is 17-13-3. At home, they are 26-28 compared to 25-22 on the road. As the favorite, the Padres are 29-29 this year and 22-21 as the underdog.

San Diego has a run line record of 51-50 this season, with an average run differential of +0.1 runs per game. The Padres have been a much better run line team on the road, going 32-15 compared to 19-35 at home. They have also been a profitable run line bet as an underdog, going 29-14 on the run line.

San Diego has played to an over/under record of 53-47 this season, with an average combined run average of 8.9 runs per game. The Padres have played in 40 games with over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, which accounts for 39.6% of their games this season. They have gone 8-9-1 in games with an over/under line of 8 runs. Their current under streak is at 2 games.

Right-hander Michael King gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Guardians on the road. He has made 19 starts this year and has a record of 7-6 with an ERA of 3.40. King’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.23. In his last outing, he took the loss, going six innings and giving up two earned runs on three hits. Before that, he had won two straight starts. King has been much better on the road this year, coming in with a record of 6-2 and an ERA of 3.34 compared to 1-4 with a 4.35 ERA at home.

So far this season, the Padres have been one of the best hitting teams in the league, as they are 2nd in batting average and have the 2nd fewest strikeouts in the league. In terms of home runs, they are 11th in the league, and their team on-base percentage of .321 is 8th in the MLB. San Diego’s offense is averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 13th in the league.

Jurickson Profar and Jake Cronenworth are tied for the team lead with 14 home runs apiece, which is 13th in the league. Profar also comes into the game with the best on-base percentage on the team and is 13th in the league with 59 RBIs. Cronenworth has two homers in his last seven games but is hitting just .231 during that stretch. The Padres also have Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, who have both hit 14 homers this season.

Cleveland is 59-38 overall this season, putting them five games ahead of the Twins for the AL Central lead. The Guardians are 15-13 against other AL Central teams. They have gone 4-6 over their last 10 games and are currently tied with the Padres in their series, with one win each.

At home, the Guardians are 31-12 this year and have gone 28-26 on the road. One thing to note is that Cleveland has lost six straight games as the underdog. As the favorite, the Guardians are 43-21 and 16-17 when they are the underdog. The team’s overall series record is 20-9-2, and they have dropped two straight series.

When the Cleveland Guardians are favored, they are just 29-35 on the run line, but when they are underdogs, they are 20-13. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.4, and in losing games, it is -3.1. Their overall run line record is 49-48, with a +0.9 run differential.

The Cleveland Guardians have an over/under record of 47-44 this season, and their games have had an average run total of 8.6. When the over/under line has been set at 8, their record is 8-7-2. Overall, 46 of their games have had higher lines than 8, accounting for 47.4% of their games. They are currently on a five-game under streak.

Ben Lively gets the start for the Guardians today and is coming off a rough outing in which he took the loss. Against the Rays on July 14th, he gave up two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Looking back further, Lively has finished with a no-decision in two straight outings. He has made 16 starts this season and has a record of 8-5 with a 3.58 ERA. Opponents are batting .231 off the right-hander this season. Lively has turned in five quality starts and is 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA at home.

Heading into today’s game, the Guardians are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 9th in the majors. At home, they have been even better, averaging 5 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .242, which is 12th in the league, and have the 10th ranked slugging percentage in the league. Cleveland has been tough to strike out this season, but they have been below average in terms of drawing walks.

Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been two of the league’s top power hitters this season, as they are 1st and 2nd on the team in home runs and are 5th and 6th in the league, respectively. Ramirez’s 79 RBIs are the 2nd most in the MLB this season. However, Ramirez has been in a bit of a slump, going 6/34 in his last eight games. Angel Martinez has also struggled of late, hitting just .176 in his last eight games.

Our prediction for this Padres vs. Guardians matchup is to take the Guardians on the money line at -113. We actually have the Guardians winning this one 6-5, and with the payout for a Guardians win being higher than the over, we like the money line.

Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Ben Lively finishing with four strikeouts compared to Michael King with five. However, we have Lively finishing with the better starting pitcher, and he is going off at +115 to finish with more K’s than King.

Cleveland Guardians vs San Diego Padres Betting Tips

• Take the Padres on the moneyline
• The Guardians should also cover at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Cleveland Guardians Injury Report

San Diego Padres Injury Report