Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Betting Tips 7/7/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview

From Truist Park in Atlanta, we have the Phillies and Braves facing off in an NL East matchup. First pitch on Sunday is set for 1:35 PM ET. BSSE is carrying this one on TV, and the Phillies are the current leaders of the NL East with a record of 58-31.

The money line odds have the Braves as the favorite at -174, while the Phillies are sitting at +147. Today’s over/under line is at 8.5 runs, and the pitching matchup has Michael Mercado for the Phillies and Reynaldo Lopez for the Braves.

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Atlanta Braves Trends and Key Stats

• Across their last five road games, the Phillies are 3-2. This includes going 3-2 vs. the runline.
• The Braves, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 record.
• As the favorite, the Braves are 4-6 over their last ten games, including going 3-7 vs. the runline.
• The Phillies have a 6-4 straight-up record and a 6-4 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.

The most recent game o of this Phillies and Braves series came right down to the end, as the Phillies rallied late but still fell short with the Braves winning 5-1 at home. Heading into the game, the Braves were favored at -121 on the money line.

Atlanta got to Phillies starter Ranger Suarez, who gave up five earned runs in just five innings of work and took the loss. On the other side, Spencer Schwellenbach put together a good outing for the Braves, getting the win after going six innings and giving up just one earned run.

Ozzie Albies and Marcell Ozuna each homered for the Braves, while Jarred Kelenic scored twice and drove in two runs while going 2/4. Albies, Ozuna, and Kelenic each had two hits.

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

With a record of 58-31, the Phillies lead the NL East by nine games over the Braves. The Phillies took the series opener, but the Braves bounced back to take game two, and the series is currently tied. So far, the Phillies have gone 15-9 in divisional games.

At home, the Phillies have gone 33-14 this season, and they have been good on the road as well, putting together a record of 25-17. This year, the Phillies have been really good in night games, going 38-15. As the favorite, the Phillies are 50-24 this season, and they are 8-7 as the underdog.

When the Phillies win, they tend to win big, with an average run margin of 3.7 runs per game. They have been profitable on the run line in those games, going 47-42 overall. They have been a good bet on the run line at home, going 24-23, and as the favorite, going 39-35. On the road, their run line record is 23-19.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been a solid over team this season, with a combined run average of 8.6 runs per game. Their over/under record is 40-44, and their games have averaged 8 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, they have gone over 6 times and under 10 times. Overall, 21.3% of their games have had lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.

Michael Mercado is getting the start for the Phillies today, coming off a win in his first start of the season. He went 5 innings in that outing, giving up 2 hits, 1 earned run, and striking out 4. He did not allow a home run in that start.

Philadelphia comes into the game with the league’s 5th best scoring offense, averaging 5 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .259, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. The Phillies have been one of the league’s best home run-hitting teams this season and are also near the top of the league in on-base percentage and slugging.

Over the Phillies’ last five games, Trea Turner has been on fire, going 9/22 with four homers and nine RBIs. The team’s top three home run hitters are Bryce Harper (20), Kyle Schwarber (17), and Alec Bohm (11). Harper and Bohm are also near the top of the league in RBIs, with Harper’s 58 RBIs being 10th in the MLB and Bohm’s 70 RBIs leading the team and being 4th in the league.

With a record of 48-39, the Braves are nine games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. Atlanta is 13-12 in divisional games and will look to close the gap on the Phillies as they host them today. The Braves are 28-17 at home this season and 20-22 on the road.

So far, the Braves have been good as the favorite, going 45-33, but they are just 3-6 as the underdog. As for how they have fared in their current series, the Braves’ overall series record is 16-11-2. They are also 4-6 over their last ten games.

Atlanta’s run line record is 41-46, with a 20-25 mark at home. The Braves are 21-21 on the run line on the road, and they have an average run margin of 0.6 runs per game this season. As the favorite, they are 36-42 on the run line, while they are 5-4 as the underdog. In their wins, they have an average run margin of 3.7 runs per game, while in their losses, it is -3.2 runs per game.

The Braves are playing at home against the Phillies today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Braves games this season is 8.0 runs per game. The Braves have an over/under record of 30-53 on the year, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 8-16. Overall, 39.1% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, with the average line being set at 9 runs per game.

Right-hander Reynaldo López gets the start for the Braves today and comes in with a record of 6-2 and an ERA of 1.83. So far, he has made eight quality starts and is averaging 9.36 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, López finished with a no-decision against the Giants, giving up two earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts. The right-hander has been especially tough at home, coming in with a record of 3-0 and an ERA of 1.43.

Marcell Ozuna has been one of the top power hitters in the league this season, as his 23 homers are 4th in the league and leads the Braves. Ozuna also comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak, going 6/22 in his last six games. Ozzie Albies has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/24 with two homers in his last six games and is on a nine-game hitting streak.

For the season, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 15th in the MLB. This is also where they rank in terms of home runs, as they have a total of 96 homers. As a team, they are batting .242, which is 13th in the league.

Getting the Phillies at +147 on the money line is a great value pick in this one. We actually have the Phillies winning this game by a score of 5-4, giving you a couple of different ways to play this one. If you’re looking for a parlay, you could take the over, as the line is sitting at 8.5 runs.

Looking at some potential player props, Michael Mercado is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which would have him finishing around the middle of the league in terms of starters. For the Braves, Reynaldo Lopez is projected to finish with five strikeouts, and the Braves finishing with nine as a team.

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips

• We like the Phillies on the moneyline (+147)
• The Phillies are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

Atlanta Braves Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report