Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres Preview
From Fenway Park in Boston, we have the Padres and Red Sox facing off in an interleague matchup. First pitch for this one is set for 7:10 PM ET, and APLTV is carrying the game on TV.
The forecast for Friday’s matchup calls for temperatures in the mid-70s and partly cloudy skies. The over/under line is at 9.5 runs, and the Red Sox are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -154. The Padres have won three straight and are 44-41 overall, while the Red Sox are 43-37.
Check out BetCoco for Boston Red Sox – San Diego Padres odds
Boston Red Sox Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Padres have recorded a 1-4 record, with a 2-3 performance on the runline.
- The Red Sox, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 4-1 (SU) and 2-3 record.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Red Sox have a straight-up record of 5-5, while going 2-8 against the runline.
- The Padres have a 5-5 straight-up record and a 8-2 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres Prediction
The Padres’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Nationals, closing out their series with an 8-5 win. After allowing five runs to the Nationals in the top of the 9th, the Padres really needed the insurance runs they scored in the 8th. San Diego’s offense was carried by Kyle Higashioka, who went 3/4 with two homers and six RBIs.
Dylan Cease started for the Padres, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just two walks and struck out nine Nationals batters. San Diego’s bullpen nearly blew the lead, as the Nationals scored five runs in the top of the 9th, but the Padres were able to close things out and pick up the win.
San Diego is on a three-game winning streak, and they are 44-41 overall this season. The Padres will be on the road today, taking on the Red Sox. In the NL West, they are 8.5 games behind the Dodgers for the division lead. So far, they are 14-15 in divisional games.
The Padres have won two straight series, and they took three straight games vs. the Nationals in their most recent series. As the road team, the Padres are 12-11 this year when underdogs. They have been good as the favorite, putting up a mark of 28-24 and are 15-10-3 in series this year.
When the Padres are on the road, they have been a strong bet against the run line, going 27-12. They have covered in their last two road games and have been particularly good against the run line when they are the underdog, going 23-10. Their average run margin in their wins is +3.6, while their average run margin in their losses is -3.3.
San Diego has been on a tear lately, hitting the over in seven straight games. The Padres’ over/under record for the season is 45-39, and their games have averaged 9.0 runs per game. Today’s over/under line is set at 9.5 runs, which is higher than their average line of 8 runs per game.
Randy Vásquez gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. So far this season, he has made 10 starts and has a record of 2-4 with an ERA of 5.10. Vásquez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.68. In his 10 appearances, he has turned in two quality starts. Looking back at his most recent outing, Vásquez picked up the win, going five innings and not giving up a run to the Brewers. Before that, he had given up at least one homer in three straight outings. Per nine innings, Vásquez is averaging 5.85 strikeouts and just 2.27 walks.
Not only do the Padres have the 2nd ranked batting average in the MLB this season, but they are also one of the league’s top power-hitting teams, coming into the game 7th in home runs. San Diego’s offense is averaging 4.6 runs per game, and they have been even better on the road, averaging 4.7 runs per contest. The Padres are also one of the league’s toughest teams to strike out, averaging just 6 strikeouts per game.
Jurickson Profar and Jake Cronenworth have been two of the Padres’ top power threats this season, as Profar’s 11 homers is 3rd on the team, and Cronenworth is right behind him with 12. Profar’s 55 RBIs is the best mark on the team, and he is also 8th in the MLB in that category. Fernando Tatis Jr. has a team-high 14 homers and is 5th in the league in that category. Over his last nine games, Manny Machado is hitting .371 with two homers and is currently on a four-game hitting streak.
Boston closed out their series vs. the Blue Jays with a 9-4 loss. Heading into the game, the Red Sox were the slight favorite at -129 on the money line. Things really got away from the Red Sox in the 3rd inning, as the Blue Jays scored seven runs in the inning. Boston’s offense scored their only four runs in the 2nd.
Brayan Bello got the start for the Red Sox and took the loss. He only lasted 2 1/3 innings, giving up seven earned runs. Rafael Devers was hot at the plate, going 2/4 with a homer and two RBIs.
Boston is 43-37 overall, and they are 7.5 games behind the Orioles for the AL East lead. In their division, the Red Sox are 11-10 this season. Boston will be at home today, hosting the Padres, and they are 19-21 at home this year.
The Red Sox have been playing well recently, going 8-2 over their last 10 games. So far, they are 12-13 as the home favorite and 22-16 as the favorite overall. Boston’s overall series record is 12-9-5, and they have won two straight series on the road.
When betting the run line on the Red Sox, it’s been more profitable to do so on the road, where they are 23-17. The Red Sox have outscored opponents by an average of 1.4 runs per game on the road, compared to just 0.6 runs per game overall. The run line has been a better bet for the Red Sox when they are the underdog, as they are 25-17 in those games.
With the over/under line set at 9.5 runs for today’s game between the Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres, it’s worth noting that the Red Sox have played to the over in four of their 10 games with that line this season. Their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record for the year is 37-38. Boston’s games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs per game this season.
Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta finished with a no-decision in his last outing, going 4 1/3 innings against the Reds. He gave up three earned runs on six hits, one walk, and two home runs in the outing. Before that, he had picked up the win in two straight outings. Pivetta’s ERA for the season is 4.06, along with a record of 4-4. Opponents are batting .234 this season off the right-hander. Pivetta has made four quality starts this year and is averaging 9.99 strikeouts per nine innings.
Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox offense is averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .253, which is the 6th best mark in the league. Boston also comes into the game with the league’s best BABIP at .32.
Rafael Devers and Tyler O’Neill have been leading the Red Sox offense this season, with Devers leading the team with 42 RBIs and O’Neill and Devers tied for the team lead with 16 homers. Devers is also on a four-game hitting streak, going 7/19 in his last five games, including two homers. Jarren Duran has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/23 in his last five games.
Our prediction for today’s Padres vs. Red Sox matchup is to take the Red Sox on the money line at -154. We have the Red Sox winning this one by a score of 5-4. If you’re looking for a parlay, you could also take the over, as the line is sitting at 9.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Nick Pivetta finishing with five strikeouts, which has him as the 19th highest among starting pitchers. As for the Padres starter, Randy Vasquez, he is projected to finish with five strikeouts, which has him at 15th.
Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres Betting Tips
- Take the Red Sox on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Padres (+1.5)
- Our MLB model projects 9 runs, and we suggest taking the under
Boston Red Sox Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Liam Hendriks | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Story | Out | Shoulder |
| Lucas Giolito | Out | Elbow |
| Bryan Mata | Out | Lat |
| Triston Casas | Out | Ribs |
| Garrett Whitlock | Out | Elbow |
| Vaughn Grissom | Out | Hamstring |
| Chris Murphy | Out | Elbow |
San Diego Padres Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts | Out | Shoulder |
| Yu Darvish | Out | Groin |
| Joe Musgrove | Out | Elbow |
| Jay Groome | Out | Suspension |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Out | Tricep |
| Luis Campusano | Out | Thumb |
| Luis Patiño | Out | Elbow |
