Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Preview
At 7:10 PM ET, the Mets and Cubs face off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago, and the Mets are the slight money line favorite, with their line sitting at -105 compared to the Cubs at -114. The over/under line is at 8 runs.
New York will be looking for a win behind Luis Severino, while the Cubs are starting Javier Assad. Both teams are 4th in their respective divisions, with the Mets being 36-39, and the Cubs are 37-40. This game will be televised on ESPN.
Check out BetCoco for Chicago Cubs – New York Mets odds
Chicago Cubs Trends and Key Stats
- 3-2 is the record of Mets in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Cubs have gone 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 in their previous five home contests.
- The Mets are 7-3 in their last ten games as the favorite and 7-3 as the underdog.
- The Cubs are 5-5 (favorite) and 4-6 (underdog).
Chicago cruised to an easy 8-1 win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series. The Cubs had a huge 1st inning, scoring five of their eight runs. As for the Mets, they scored their only run in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Cubs were at +105 on the money line.
Jameson Taillon pitched well for the Cubs in this one, going seven innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with 10 strikeouts and picked up a win. Tylor Megill had a rough outing for the Mets, taking the loss after going just three innings and giving up six runs.
At the plate, the Cubs were led by Christopher Morel, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Seiya Suzuki, as they were the only three Cubs hitters to have more than one hit. Morel and Suzuki each drove in two runs.
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Prediction
With a record of 36-39, the Mets are 4th in the NL East, 13.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. New York will be on the road today, taking on the Cubs, and they are 11-10 in division games this year. The Mets are looking to win the series vs. the Cubs, and they have an overall series record of 11-12-3 this year.
The Mets have been playing well recently, going 8-2 across their last 10 games. This season, they are 18-23 at home compared to 18-16 on the road. As the favorite, the Mets are 20-19 this year, and they are 16-20 as the underdog. New York has dropped two straight games as the favorite.
When the Mets are on the road, they have a run differential of +0.5 runs per game, and their run line record is 20-14. They have been the underdog in 36 of their 41 road games, and their run line record as the underdog is 21-15. In their 14 road games as the favorite, they are just 13-26 on the run line.
The Mets have been involved in high-scoring games this season, as their combined run average is 9.4 runs per game. Their over/under record is 38-35, and when the over/under line is set at 8 runs, they have gone over in 8 of 12 games. Overall, 42.7% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 or higher, while 41.3% have had lines set at 7.5 or lower.
Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today and comes in with a record of 4-2 and ERA of 3.52. So far, he has made 14 starts and six of them have been quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Severino finished with a no-decision after giving up one earned run in 6 1/3 innings of work. He gave up a homer in that outing. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Opponents are batting .217 this year off Severino, and his WHIP is currently 1.20. The right-hander has a BB/9 figure of 3.31 compared to 6.51 strikeouts per nine innings.
Heading into today’s game, the Mets are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. They have been even better on the road, leading the league with an average of 5.7 runs per contest. As a team, the Mets are batting .247, which is 9th in the league, and are also 9th in home runs.
Brandon Nimmo and J.D. Martinez have been swinging the bat well for the Mets, with Nimmo going 13/30 in his last seven games with three homers and 10 RBIs, and Martinez also has three homers in his last seven games while batting .417. Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo are both on long hitting streaks, with Alonso’s sitting at seven games and Nimmo’s at eight.
Chicago is 37-40 overall, and they are seven games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. So far, they are just 9-17 against other teams in the NL Central. The Cubs are coming into today’s game with a two-game win streak, and they are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Cubs are 22-17 this year compared to 15-23 on the road. Chicago has been good as the home underdog this year, going 8-4, and their overall record as the underdog is 18-22. They have been just above .500 when favored, coming in at 19-18. The Cubs’ overall series record is 9-13-2 this year.
The Cubs have been a profitable team to bet on the run line this season, as they are 37-40 overall. They are 15-24 at home on the run line, but 22-16 on the road. They have covered the run line in two straight games as the underdog and are 27-13 on the run line as the underdog this season. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.0, while it is -3.2 in losses.
The Chicago Cubs are playing at home against the New York Mets today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs. The Cubs’ games have averaged 8.6 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 33-41. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, and their record when the line is set at 8 runs is 3-9. So far this season, 49.4% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, while 35.1% have had lines set lower than 8 runs.
Javier Assad is coming off a start in which he didn’t give up a homer, which is a positive for the right-hander. In his outing vs. the Giants on June 17th, he went 5 innings, giving up one earned run, and finished with a no-decision. Looking back further, Assad has given up at least one homer in four straight starts. His ERA for the season is 2.75, along with a record of 4-2. Opponents are batting .223 off Assad this year. For the season, he has made 15 starts, three of which were quality starts. Assad’s ERA at home is 1.79 compared to 3.71 on the road.
Christopher Morel has been the Cubs’ top power hitter this season, as he comes into the game with 14 homers, which is 11th in the league. However, he is batting just .202 for the season. Ian Happ and Cody Bellinger are both batting in the low .200s, but Happ has two homers in his last six games and is 8/21 in that stretch. Bellinger is on a four-game hitting streak.
Overall, the Cubs are averaging 4.2 runs per game and are 18th in team batting average at .230. So far, they have been a bit better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per game. As a team, they are 16th in home runs and have the 5th fewest strikeouts in the league.
We are predicting the Mets to pick up a 5-4 road win over the Cubs. With the Mets being the underdogs on the money line at -105, that is the bet we would recommend making.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Luis Severino finishing with six strikeouts, which would have him just outside the top 10 among starters. As for Javier Assad, his projected strikeout total is five.
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Betting Tips
- We like the Mets on the moneyline (-105)
- The Mets are also our pick on the spread at -1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Mike Tauchman | Out | Groin |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Ribs |
| Ben Brown | Out | Neck |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Oblique |
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | Questionable | Knee |
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Luis Torrens | Out | Personal |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Shoulder |
| Shintaro Fujinami | Out | Shoulder |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Dedniel Núñez | Questionable | Illness |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
