Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Prediction & Betting Tips 6/16/2024

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Preview

At 1:35 PM ET, the Marlins and Nationals will face off in an NL East matchup. Sunday’s matchup is taking place at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. The Marlins are 23-47 overall, while the Nationals are 34-36.

BSFL will be televising Sunday’s game, and the Nationals are the slight money line favorite, with their odds sitting at -120. The over/under line is at 8 runs, and the Nationals will be looking to extend their two-game win streak. Jesús Luzardo will start for the Marlins, and he will face off against Mitchell Parker.

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Washington Nationals Trends and Key Stats

• Over the course of their previous five away games, the Marlins have recorded a 1-4 record, with a 2-3 performance on the runline.
• Conversely, the Nationals have achieved a 3-2 (SU) record and 3-2 record in their last five home games.
• In their last ten games as the favorite, the Nationals have a record of 9-1 straight-up, and have gone 5-5 against the runline.
• Looking at the Marlins’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 2-8 straight-up and 3-7 vs. the runline.

Washington cruised to a 4-0 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. The Nationals had a huge 2nd inning, scoring all four of their runs. As for the Marlins, they had their best scoring chance in the 8th inning, scoring two of their four runs.

DJ Herz only went six innings for the Nationals but didn’t give up a run and finished with 13 strikeouts. He picked up a win in the game, while Trevor Rogers took the loss for Miami. Rogers gave up two earned runs in seven innings of work.

Lane Thomas and Joey Meneses each homered for the Nationals, while Ildemaro Vargas scored two runs and drove in a run while going 2/3. Jake Burger had a two-hit game for the Marlins.

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Miami is 5th in the NL East with a record of 23-47, which has them 24 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. The Marlins have dropped four straight games, and this losing streak has come after taking two of three from the Rockies. So far, they are just 5-16 in divisional games this year.

At home, the Marlins are only 12-25 this season, and they are just a game under .500 at 11-22 on the road. One area they have struggled in has been as the favorite, going just 3-12 this year. Miami has been better as the underdog, putting together a mark of 20-35.

When betting on the Miami Marlins’ run line, it’s been a good idea to take them on the road. They are 17-16 ATS on the road this season, compared to 11-26 ATS at home. They are also 27-28 ATS as the underdog, but just 1-14 ATS as the favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.1, while it’s -4.0 in losses.

The Miami Marlins are on the road against the Washington Nationals, and the over/under line for today’s game is set at 8 runs. The Marlins and their opponents have combined to average 8.6 runs per game this season, and Miami’s over/under record is 37-32. The average over/under line for Marlins games is 8 runs, and when the line is set at 8 runs, their record is 5-6-1. Over the course of the season, 52.9% of Marlins games have had over/under lines set above 8 runs, while 30.0% have had lines set below 8 runs.

Jesús Luzardo has made 11 starts this season and has a record of 3-5 with an ERA of 5.11. In his 11 appearances, he has turned in four quality starts and is coming off a solid outing vs. the Mets. In that June 11th start, Luzardo picked up the win, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up just two earned runs. Looking back at his last three outings, Luzardo has alternated wins and losses. The left-hander has been much better on the road, with an ERA of 6.04 compared to 5.65 at home.

As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.5 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been even worse in terms of power, as their team ISO of .116 is the worst in the MLB. However, they do have two hitters in the lineup who have been swinging the bat well of late, as Jake Burger comes in with a six-game hitting streak and is 6/17 in his last five games, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. is also 6/16 in his last five games.

Chisholm Jr. comes into the game with a team-high 33 RBIs and is batting .257 for the season. He also has 10 homers, which is 2nd on the team and 12th in the league. Bryan De La Cruz is right ahead of him with 11 homers, and he has driven in 30 runs so far this season.

Washington is 34-36 overall and 3rd in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by 13 games. The Nationals have won two straight games and are on a five-game winning streak at home. So far, they have gone 15-17 at home and are at an even 19-19 on the road.

As the underdog, the Nationals are 29-33 this year and 5-3 when favored. Washington’s overall series record is 9-12-1, and they have won two straight series. Over the last 10 games, the Nationals are 7-3.

Washington has been a strong run line bet this season, going 43-27 overall. They have been particularly strong on the run line at home, going 18-14. The Nationals have gone over the run line in five straight games and are 25-13 on the run line on the road. They have been a strong run line bet as the underdog, going 38-24. The average run margin in their wins is +3.4 while the average run margin in their losses is -3.5.

The Washington Nationals are hosting the Miami Marlins today, and the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The Nationals have a combined run average of 8.3 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 32-35. The average over/under line for their games is also 8 runs. When the line has been set at 8 runs, their over/under record is 5-5-1. Overall, 60.0% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8 runs this season.

Washington is sending left-hander Mitchell Parker to the mound today vs. the Marlins. He has made 11 starts this season and has a record of 4-3 with a 3.21 ERA. Parker’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.09. In his 11 starts, he has turned in four quality starts and is averaging 6.71 strikeouts per nine innings. Parker most recently pitched on June 11th vs. the Tigers, where he went 4 2/3 innings, giving up four hits, no earned runs, and three walks. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. Before that, he had gone seven innings in back-to-back outings.

Washington’s offense has been a bit below average this season, averaging just 4.1 runs per game (22nd) and are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and slugging percentage. However, they do have a team batting average of .235, which is 12th best in the league. The Nationals have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.3 runs per game.

Joey Meneses and CJ Abrams are both near the top of the Nationals home run leaderboard, with Meneses leading the team with 36 RBIs and Abrams not far behind at 36. Abrams is also batting .257 for the season, while Meneses comes in at .244. Eddie Rosario is 2nd on the team with seven homers but is batting just .185. Lane Thomas has been hot of late, going 11/29 in his last eight games, including two homers.

Our prediction for this Marlins vs. Nationals matchup is that the Nationals will come out on top by a score of 5-4. Given that they are at -120 on the money line, this is the way we recommend playing this one.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Jesús Luzardo finishing with six strikeouts, and he has the second-best ERA projection among today’s starters. As for Mitchell Parker, we have him ending with five K’s, and his ERA is also favorable, but he is projected to pick up the loss.

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips

• Take the Nationals on the moneyline
• The Nationals should also cover at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

Washington Nationals Injury Report

Miami Marlins Injury Report