Epsom Derby Festival 2024 Preview & Betting Tips 31/05/24
The Epsom Derby Festival of 2024 looks likely to be starting on ground conditions described officially as Good To Soft. This is almost certainly the scenario for the Friday featuring the Betfred Oaks with the possibility that an improving weather forecast will produce drier conditions for Saturday’s feature, The Betfred Derby.
Therefore horses with proven stamina, a penchant for ease in the ground and/or with a breeding page that suggests stamina to be prominent in the breed will be of interest across the two-day fixture.
Epsom Derby Festival – Friday
The first day of the meeting features two Group 1 races as the centrepiece with the Coronation Cup and the Oaks taking centre stage. First up is the Coronation Cup at 3:10 and the market is headed by last year’s winner Emily Upjohn. Having blown away the cobwebs when finishing fifth in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan in March, the daughter of Sea The Stars looks primed to defend her crown. She is a worthy favourite and the likeliest winner however given that she has never raced on any surface that has been worse than Good To Soft, an improving forecast will be music to the ears of her connections. The rest of her opponents have encountered soft ground on many occasions and the outsider of the whole field, the 8 year-old Hamish positively relishes cut in the ground. His connections will be hoping for more showers as the more testing the ground, the more his chance will increase.
The Oaks at 4:30 looks a relatively wide open affair and the market is headed by Ylang Ylang, last season’s Fillies Mile winner who reappeared this season to finish a staying on fifth in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. The daughter of Frankel doesn’t appear to do anything quickly over a mile and the step up to 12 furlongs here could well eek out a fair amount of improvement. Another Irish raider Ezeliya has a progressive profile and she impressed when taking the Group 3 Salsabil Stakes at Navan a month ago beating Purple Lily by half a length. The runner-up ran very well when finishing fifth in the Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh last weekend and Ezeliya should relish conditions at Epsom. Others in the mix include the Lingfield Oaks Trial first and second You Got To Me and Rubies Are Red, the Musidora winner Secret Satire and the Cheshire Oaks heroine Forest Fairy and all of these fillies would have valid claims for victory. Perhaps the most interesting of these is Forest Fairy who has shown a combination of tactical pace and stamina in her two victories to date and she looks sure to improve again given her relative inexperience.
Epsom Derby Festival – Saturday
The narrative around Saturday’s Betfred Derby (4:30) centres upon last season’s top two-year-old City Of Troy who is on a recovery mission following his blow-out in this season’s 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. The son of Justify was sent off at odds on at Newmarket however he was beaten just after halfway and he trailed in a hugely disappointing 9th of 11, some 17 lengths behind the winner Notable Speech. He faces a similar task to last year’s Derby winner and stablemate Auguste Rodin who similarly blew out in the 2000 Guineas before striding to victory in the Derby. If anybody can produce City Of Troy in the right condition to repeat the feat then it is his master trainer Aidan O’Brien. Similar to the Oaks, this framing of the race suggests that the Derby is also wide open and there are a number of horses who could come to the fore. City Of Troy’s stablemate Los Angeles is unbeaten in three races and a Group 1 winner to boot. He comes here on the back of a workmanlike victory in a 10 furlong Derby trial at Leopardstown three weeks ago and as a big horse who will keep filling his frame, he should continue to improve as the season progresses. Lingfield Derby Trial winner Ambiente Friendly leads the home team challenge on the back of an impressive victory at the Surrey track where he beat Illinois by just under 5 lengths. Although impressive, his victory was gained on a sound surface and his chances will increase the more the ground dries out. Others to consider include French 2000 Guineas runner-up Dancing Gemini, potential improver Macduff, Dallas Star, Deira Mile and the Blue Riband Trial winner Bellum Justum who showed that he can handle the track when landing that 10 furlong contest at Epsom back in April. That form was franked at the Curragh over the weekend and if staying the 1m4f trip, the son of Sea The Stars could represent each-way value at odds of 20/1 or similar.
In a strong supporting card, the Group 3 Diomed Stakes at 2:35 features the Roger Varian trained Embesto. He was well fancied in the Group 3 Earl Of Sefton Stakes at Newmarket on his return in April however a combination of the 9 furlong journey and a tendency to race too keenly in the early stages cost Embesto any chance of victory. This return to a mile is thought to be in his favour and if settling better than he did at Newmarket, he could well recoup those early season losses incurred at Headquarters.
Suggestions
- Emily Upjohn (3:10 Friday)
- Ylang Ylang (Win)/Forest Fairy (each-way: 4:30 Friday)
- Embesto (2:35 Saturday)
- Deira Mile and Bellum Justum (both each-way: 4:30 Saturday)
