Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Preview
The Twins will be looking to extend their two-game winning streak vs. the Yankees, who are starting Clarke Schmidt. New York is 29-15 overall and is on a three-game winning streak. The Yankees are currently 1st in the AL East, while the Twins are 3rd in the AL Central. Joe Ryan will be starting for the Twins.
New York is the slight money line favorite today, with their odds sitting at +101 compared to the Twins at -119. Thursday’s over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and the game can be seen on BSN.
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Minnesota Twins Trends and Key Stats
- The Yankees are 4-1 in their five most recent road games, including a 4-1 runline record.
- Conversely, the Twins have achieved a 4-1 (SU) record and 2-3 record in their last five home games.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Twins have a straight-up record of 7-3, while going 4-6 against the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Yankees have a straight-up record of 8-2 and a 8-2 record vs. the runline.
New York cruised to a 4-0 win over the Twins in the most recent game of this series. The Yankees had a huge 1st inning, scoring all four of their runs. As for the Twins, they had their best chance to score in the 7th, but could only muster three hits and left six runners stranded.
Marcus Stroman started for the Yankees and picked up the win, going six innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with just two strikeouts but induced three double plays. Pablo Lopez got the start for the Twins and took the loss, giving up three earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work.
Aaron Judge was the difference for the Yankees, as he went 4/4 with a home run. Judge scored two of the Yankees’ four runs and drove in two more. Giancarlo Stanton also had a two-hit game for New York.
Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Prediction
The Yankees are on a three-game winning streak, and they lead the AL East with a record of 29-15. Currently, the Orioles are in 2nd place, a half-game behind New York. So far, the Yankees have gone just 8-8 in AL East games. New York has won three straight games, and they have gone 8-2 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Yankees have been good, going 13-6 this year. On the road, they are 16-9, and they have won three straight road games as the favorite. As the favorite overall, the Yankees are 21-11 this year, and they are 8-4 as the underdog. New York’s overall series record is 10-2-1, and they have won three straight series.
When the Yankees are on the road, they have been a good bet to cover the run line, going 15-10. Their average run differential on the road is +1.4, and they have covered the run line in three straight road games. They have been a better bet to cover the run line as the underdog, going 9-3, compared to 14-18 as the favorite. In their wins, they have an average run differential of +3.5, while in losses, it is -2.6.
When the Yankees and Twins met on Tuesday, the over/under line was set at 8.0 runs. The two teams combined for just four runs in a game that went under the total. This was the second straight under for the Yankees, who have now gone under in five of their last seven games.
Clarke Schmidt has been pitching well for the Yankees, as he comes into the game with a record of 4-1 and an ERA of 2.95. In his last outing, Schmidt didn’t give up a run, going 6 2/3 innings of work against the Rays. He has made one quality start this year and is averaging 9.91 strikeouts per nine innings. So far, Schmidt has allowed a total of five home runs. Looking at his home/road splits, Schmidt has an ERA of 2.11 on the road compared to 4.08 at home.
So far this season, the Yankees are 7th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. As a team, the Yankees are 2nd in the league in home runs and have the 3rd best slugging percentage in the league. They are also among the league leaders in walks and have the 3rd best team on-base percentage in the league.
Juan Soto and Aaron Judge have been the team’s top power threats this season, with Soto batting .310 with 9 homers and Judge at .255 with 11 homers. Judge has been especially hot of late, going 14/32 in his last nine games with five homers and 10 RBIs. Giancarlo Stanton is also tied with Soto for the team lead with 9 homers but has just a .243 batting average.
Minnesota is 24-18 overall this season, and they are 2nd in the AL Central, trailing the Guardians by two games. The Twins have dropped two straight games, and they are losing the series vs. the Yankees 0-2. So far, they have gone 12-7 in divisional games.
At home, the Twins are 11-10 this season compared to 13-8 on the road. As the underdog, the Twins are 5-10 this year and 19-8 when favored. Minnesota’s overall series record is 7-4-2, and they have won six straight series.
Minnesota has been a solid run line bet this season, going 22-20 overall. However, they have been better on the road, going 13-8 compared to 9-12 at home. They have been favored in 27 of their 34 games, going 15-12 in those contests. Their average run differential in wins is +3.6, while it is -3.8 in losses.
Minnesota’s over/under record is 20-21 on the season, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. When the line is set at 8 runs, the Twins are 4-6-1. The over/under line for today’s game is set at 8 runs. The Twins have gone under the total in their last three games, and their games have averaged 8.9 runs per game this season.
Minnesota is sending Joe Ryan to the mound today vs. the Yankees, and he has made six quality starts in his eight outings this year. Ryan’s ERA for the season is 3.21, and his record is 2-2. In his last outing, he gave up just one earned run in seven innings of work vs. the Blue Jays. Ryan has been pitching well lately, as he has allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his last four outings. The right-hander has a WHIP of 0.99 for the season.
Minnesota’s offense has been a little better on the road this season, averaging 5.4 runs per game compared to 3.9 runs per game at home. Overall, they are 10th in the league at 4.7 runs per contest. The Twins have been a good power-hitting team so far, as they are 9th in home runs and have the 4th best isolated power mark in the league.
Ryan Jeffers has been the team’s top power threat this season, as his 10 homers is 4th in the league and leads the Twins. He also has a team-high 31 RBIs. Jeffers comes into the game on a streak of four homers in his last seven games. Carlos Santana has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/29 with three homers in his last nine games.
Our prediction for today’s Yankees vs. Twins matchup is to take the Twins on the money line at -119. We have the Twins winning this one by a final score of 6-5. If you’re looking for a parlay, you could also look to take the over, as the line is sitting at 8 runs, and we have this one going over.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Joe Ryan is projected to finish with five strikeouts compared to Clarke Schmidt, who we have finishing with seven. However, Ryan is projected to go just five innings, while Schmidt is projected to go seven.
Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Betting Tips
- Take the Twins on the moneyline
- The Twins should also cover at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Minnesota Twins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Out | Elbow |
| Byron Buxton | Out | Knee |
| Zack Weiss | Out | Shoulder |
| Brock Stewart | Out | Shoulder |
| Royce Lewis | Out | Quadricep |
| Justin Topa | Out | Knee |
| Josh Winder | Out | Shoulder |
| Daniel Duarte | Out | Shoulder |
New York Yankees Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Kahnle | Out | Shoulder |
| DJ LeMahieu | Out | Foot |
| Gerrit Cole | Out | Elbow |
| Tyler Lyons | Out | Personal |
| Lou Trivino | Out | Elbow |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Out | Elbow |
| Oswald Peraza | Out | Shoulder |
| JT Brubaker | Out | Elbow |
| Scott Effross | Out | Back |
| Jasson Domínguez | Out | Elbow |
| Kenlly Montas | Out | Personal |
