Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Preview
After splitting the first two games of this Western Conference first-round series, the Mavericks and Thunder head to Dallas for game three. Tip-off is at 3:30 PM ET from the American Airlines Center and ABC is carrying the game on TV. The Thunder are the slight underdogs at +2.5 on the point spread and are at +119 on the money line. The Mavericks are -142 on the money line, and the over/under line is at 218.5 points.
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Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Head-to-Head and Key Stats
When looking back on the last three head-to-head matchups between Dallas and Oklahoma City, the Thunder hold the edge with a record of 2-1. Not only does the team have the better record, but they have won in convincing fashion, posting an average scoring differential of 20 points.
- In their last ten games away from home, the Thunder have a straight up record of 6-4 while going 4-6 vs. the spread. The team averaged 108 points per game in this stretch.
- The Mavericks are 3-2 ATS in their last home games and 3-2 straight-up.
- As the betting underdog, the Thunder have an ATS mark of just 1-4 in their last five games. Oklahoma City posted a straight up mark of 1-4 in these matchups.
- Dallas has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three games.
Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction
Heading into the most recent game of this Mavericks vs. Thunder series, the Thunder were favored by 5 points at home. However, it was the Mavericks who came out on top, winning by a score of 119-110. The Mavericks also covered the spread, and the game went over the over/under line of 217 points. Dallas won each of the first three quarters and held a 99-89 lead heading into the 4th.
Luka Doncic and P.J. Washington each had 29 points for the Mavericks, while Doncic added 10 rebounds and seven assists. Washington hit 7 threes on 63.6% shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led all scorers with 33 points, and he also had 12 rebounds and eight assists. The Thunder finished with just 10 made threes and shot 33.3% from outside.
Today, the Thunder are looking to avenge their most recent loss, which came against the Mavericks by a score of 119-110. In that game, the O/U line was 217 points. The Thunder were favored by 5 points in that game, and the combined scoring total of 229 points was higher than the O/U line.
Oklahoma City’s O/U record for the season is 46-41-1, and 80 of their games have had higher O/U lines than today’s line of 218.5. On average, Thunder games have seen 230.8 points scored.
As the underdog, the Thunder are 10-11 this season and have gone 12-9 ATS. On the road, they are 22-21 ATS, and their ATS win streak as the underdog is at three games.
In the Western Conference, the Thunder are in 1st place with a record of 57-25. Today, they are 2.5-point underdogs to the Mavericks. For the season, they are 51-37 ATS.
In non-conference games, the Thunder have gone 21-9 compared to 36-16 against the West. On the road, they are 26-17 compared to 36-9 at home.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been carrying the Thunder offense of late, averaging 28.6 points per game in his last five games. This has come while hitting 48.5% of his shots from the field. Overall, he is averaging 30.1 points per game, to go along with 6.2 assists and 5.5 rebounds. Jalen Williams is averaging 20.8 points per game in his last five games, and has hit 42.7% of his threes this year.
Oklahoma City is averaging 120.1 points per game this season, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. Looking at their pace, they are 10th in the league. The team’s field goal percentage of 49% is the 2nd best mark in the NBA. They are also the top three-point shooting team, connecting on 38% of their attempts.
On the season, the Thunder are giving up 111.5 points per game, which is 10th in the NBA. When playing on the road, they have given up 113.9 points per game, which is 14th in the league.
Over their last five games, Oklahoma City has been one of the best defensive teams in the league, allowing just 96 points per contest. During this stretch, they have held opponents to just 41.4% shooting from the field.
This season, the Thunder have been excellent at blocking shots, ranking 1st in the NBA at 6.6 blocks per game. They have also been one of the top teams in the league at creating steals, ranking 1st at 8.5 per game.
Today’s over/under line of 218.5 is lower than 81 of the Mavericks’ games this season. On average, their games have finished with a combined score of 231.5 points and have had an average O/U line of 233 points.
As the favorite, the Mavericks have a scoring margin of +7.1 points per game. In games where they are favored, they have gone 41-15 this season. Dallas has been favored in 56 of their 82 games.
Against the spread, the Mavericks are 23-21 at home and 30-16 on the road. Their overall ATS record is 53-37, and they have covered the spread in their last two games as the favorite.
In their most recent game, the Mavericks beat the Thunder by a score of 119-110. The O/U line for that game was 217 points, and the Mavericks were 5-point underdogs going into the game.
This season, the Mavericks have an O/U record of 41-49. In their last two games, the final score has gone over the O/U line, and today’s line is 218.5 points.
In the Western Conference standings, the Mavericks are in 5th place with a record of 50-32. In their division, they are in 1st place. In non-conference games, the Mavericks are 19-11 compared to 31-21 against the West.
For the season, Luka Doncic is averaging 28 points per game to go along with 9.8 assists and 8 rebounds. Over his last five games, he has hit just 23.3% of his threes and 4.1 threes per game this season. Kyrie Irving has an average of 25.6 points per game this year and 22.6 over his last five games. In his last five games, he has hit 44.1% of his three-point attempts.
Dallas is 3rd in three-point attempts this season and are 14th in three-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are 8th in scoring at 117.9 points per game. For the season, the Mavericks are averaging 118 points per game at home. The Mavericks are also one of the more efficient two-point shooting teams, with a field goal percentage of 56%.
Coming into tonight’s game, the Mavericks rank 18th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 114.6. Dallas has been slightly better at home, giving up 114.2 points per game, which also ranks 18th in the league.
Over their last five games, the Mavericks have been even better on defense, ranking 10th in the NBA at 107.4 points per game allowed. During this stretch, opposing teams have shot 45.1% from the field and 38.5% from three-point range.
On the season, opponents have made 62.2% of their three-point attempts against the Mavericks, which is slightly higher than their season average. Overall, opposing teams have made 36.8% of their three-point attempts vs. Dallas.
Even though they are considered 2.5-point underdogs, our projection points to a 116-114 win for the Thunder.
Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Tips
- We like the Thunder on the moneyline (+119)
- The Thunder are also our pick on the spread at +2.5
- Projecting a combined 230 points, we like the over
Dallas Mavericks Injury Report
- Maxi Kleber – Shoulder – Out
- Luka Doncic – Knee/Ankle – Questionable
- Olivier-Maxence Prosper – Ankle – Out
Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report
No Injuries Reported
