Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Preview
At 2:10 PM ET, the Mariners and Astros will face off in an AL West matchup. Sunday’s matchup is being played at Minute Maid Park in Houston and features a Mariners club that is 18-15 compared to the Astros at 12-21. Seattle is starting Bryce Miller, and the Astros are sending Hunter Brown to the mound.
Looking at the money line odds, the Astros are at -120 compared to the Mariners at +100. The over/under line is at 8.5 runs, and you can catch this one on RSNW.
Check out BetCoco for Houston Astros – Seattle Mariners odds
Houston Astros Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Mariners have recorded a 3-2 record, with a 2-3 performance on the runline.
- The Astros, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 record.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Astros have won 4-6 straight-up, and have a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Mariners have a straight-up record of 5-5 and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
Seattle cruised to a 5-0 win over the Astros in the most recent game of this series. The Mariners had a huge 2nd inning, scoring five of their five runs. As for the Astros, they had their best chance to score in the 6th, but left the bases loaded. Heading into the game, the Mariners were at +121 on the money line.
Logan Gilbert pitched well for the Mariners in this one, going eight innings and striking out six without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Framber Valdez had a rough outing for the Astros, taking the loss.
At the plate, the Mariners were led by Cal Raleigh and Luis Urias, who each had a home run and two RBIs. Mitch Garver also had a two-hit game for Seattle.
Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Prediction
Seattle is on the road today vs. the Astros, with the Mariners holding a half-game lead over the Rangers for the AL West lead. Overall, the Mariners are 18-15 and have gone 3-2 against other teams in the division. Seattle has been good at home this year, putting together an 11-8 record, and they are at an even 7-7 on the road.
As the favorite, the Mariners have gone 11-7 this year and 7-8 as the underdog. Seattle’s overall series record is 5-4-1, and they have won five straight series, including two straight on the road. Their series-winning streak has also seen them go 5-1 at home.
Seattle has been a solid run line team this season, going 16-17 overall. The Mariners have been a better bet on the road, going 7-7 against the run line away from home. They have an average run margin of +0.4 runs per game overall, and they have been outscored by an average of 0.8 runs per game on the road. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.2 runs per game, while their average run differential in losing games is -3.1 runs per game.
Seattle has been on a remarkable under streak, with the under hitting in 11 straight games. The Mariners’ games have averaged just 5 runs over their last 10 contests, and their over/under record for the season is a dismal 7-24. The over/under line for today’s game against the Astros is set at 8.5 runs, which is higher than their season average of 6.8 runs per game. The over has hit in just one of the three games this season where the line was set at 8.5 runs. Overall, the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs or higher in just 18.2% of their games this season.
Seattle is sending right-hander Bryce Miller to the mound today as he faces the Astros on the road. Miller has made six starts this season and has a record of 3-2 with an ERA of 2.04. So far, he has turned in four quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he went seven innings, giving up one earned run, and finished with 10 strikeouts. In that outing, he allowed just two hits and one walk. Miller’s WHIP for the season is currently .88, and opponents are batting .152 off him this year.
Seattle’s offense has struggled this season, averaging just 3.6 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. They have been even worse at home, averaging only 3.1 runs per contest. As a team, the Mariners are batting just .221, and their on-base percentage of .299 is also near the bottom of the league.
Over his last eight games, Jorge Polanco has gone 8/30 (.267) with two homers and five RBIs. This has helped him move into 2nd on the team with five homers. Julio Rodriguez is batting .269 for the season and has gone 8/32 in his last eight games. Mitch Haniger has a team-high 18 RBIs but is batting just .212 for the season.
Houston will host the Mariners today with an overall record of 12-21, which has them six games behind Seattle for the AL West lead. So far, they have gone 5-4 in AL West games. The Astros are playing in the middle game of their series vs. the Mariners, and they are the favorite today.
At home, the Astros are 7-8 when favored and 7-11 overall at home. On the road, Houston is 5-10 this season. So far, they have put together a two-game series winning streak, and their overall series record is 4-5-1. In day games this year, the Astros are just 3-8.
When the Astros win, they win big, with an average run margin of 5.0 runs per game. But when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.8 runs per game. Their overall run line record is 12-21, with a -0.6 run margin per game. They are 7-11 against the run line at home and 5-10 on the road.
Today’s over/under line of 8.5 runs for the Astros-Mariners game is lower than the combined run average for Astros games this season, which is 9.5 runs. Houston has an over/under record of 10-21 this season, and the average over/under line for their games is 9 runs. However, when the line is set at 8.5 runs, the under has hit in four of their six games. Their last two games have gone under the total, and this season, 69.7% of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s 8.5-run total.
Hunter Brown is looking to pick up his first win of the season today for the Astros. The right-hander has made six starts and has a record of 0-4 with an ERA of 9.78. Opposing batters are hitting .346 off Brown this season. In his last outing, Brown finished with a no-decision, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up six earned runs on seven hits. He did give up two homers in that outing. Brown has allowed at least one homer in each of his last three starts. His ERA on the road is 47.75 compared to 4.38 at home.
Jose Altuve has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 13/42 in his last 10 games, with two homers and five RBIs. Overall, he is hitting .338 for the season, which is 2nd on the team. Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez are 1st and 2nd on the team in homers, with 8 and 7, respectively. Tucker is also 9th in the league in RBIs, with 21.
As a team, the Astros are batting .260, which is 2nd in the league, and are also the top strikeout team in the league. They are 6th in the league in both slugging and on-base percentage. Overall, they are averaging 4.5 runs per game.
Our prediction for today’s Mariners vs. Astros matchup is that the Astros will pick up a 6-5 win at home. With the money line payout for an Astros win at -120, this is the way we recommend playing this one.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Hunter Brown finishing with more strikeouts than Bryce Miller, and we have Brown finishing with five K’s compared to Miller with four.
Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Betting Tips
- Take the Astros on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Mariners (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Houston Astros Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Kendall Graveman | Out | Shoulder |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Out | Arm |
| Cristian Javier | Out | Neck |
| Luis Garcia | Out | Elbow |
| Chas McCormick | Out | Hamstring |
| Bennett Sousa | Out | Shoulder |
| Grae Kessinger | Out | Shoulder |
| José Urquidy | Out | Forearm |
| Penn Murfee | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Ortega | Out | Elbow |
Seattle Mariners Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| J.P. Crawford | Out | Oblique |
| Gregory Santos | Out | Lat |
| Jackson Kowar | Out | Elbow |
| Eduard Bazardo | Out | Shoulder |
| George Kirby | Questionable | Knee |
| Matt Brash | Out | Elbow |
| Bryan Woo | Out | Elbow |
| Dominic Canzone | Out | Shoulder |
