New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Preview
Thursday’s matchup between the Cubs and Mets is set to get started at 1:10 from Citi Field in New York. The Cubs are sending Ben Brown to the mound up against Adrian Houser for the Mets. Coming into the game, the Cubs are 19-12, while the Mets are at .500 at 15-15.
Chicago is the slight favorite on the money line, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs. If you’re looking to catch this one on TV, it is being carried by SNY.
Check out BetCoco for New York Mets – Chicago Cubs odds
New York Mets Trends and Key Stats
- The Cubs are 2-3 in their five most recent road games, including a 2-3 runline record.
- In the Mets’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- The Cubs are 7-3 in their last ten games as the favorite and 7-3 as the underdog.
- 6-4 is the record of the Mets as the favorite, while their record as the underdog stands at 5-5.
Chicago picked up a 1-0 road win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series. The Cubs had just five hits in the game but got to Mets starter Jose Butto, who gave up the game’s only run in the 6th inning and took the loss.
Shota Imanaga pitched well for the Cubs in this one, going seven innings and striking out seven without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Hector Neris closed things out.
Nico Hoerner was the only Cubs hitter to have more than one hit, as he went 2/3 with an RBI. Jeff McNeil had two hits for the Mets.
New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
Chicago is on the road today vs. the Mets, with the Cubs coming in at 19-12 overall, putting them a half-game behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. So far, they have yet to play a game vs. another NL Central team. The Cubs have been good at home, going 10-3, and they are just above .500 at 9-9 on the road.
As the favorite, the Cubs have gone 8-3 this year, and they are 3-1 as the favorite on the road. Chicago’s overall series record is 5-3-1, and they are 6-4 over their last 10 games, including taking the first game of this series vs. the Mets.
When the Cubs win, they win big, with an average run differential of 3.4 runs per game. When they lose, they lose big, with an average run differential of -4.1 runs per game. This has led to a run line record of 21-10 on the season, including a 12-6 mark on the road. They are 6-5 vs. the run line as the favorite and 15-5 as the underdog.
The Chicago Cubs have played 30 games this season, with 13 of them going over the total and 17 going under. Their games have averaged 9.2 runs per game, and the over/under line for today’s game is set at 8.5 runs. So far this season, the Cubs have played seven games with an over/under line of 8.5 runs, with four of those games going over the total. Their last three games have all gone under the total, and their over/under record for the season is 13-17.
Right-hander Ben Brown is getting the start for the Cubs today as he faces the Mets on the road. He has made three starts and seven appearances this season, finishing with a record of 0-1 and ERA of 4.30. Opposing batters have hit .247 off Brown this season, and his WHIP is currently 1.17. The last time he took the mound, Brown took the loss, going 3 2/3 innings and giving up three earned runs on seven hits. In that outing, he gave up one homer. Brown has made one quality start this year.
Chicago comes into the game with the league’s 7th best scoring offense, averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.8 runs per contest. The Cubs have been a below-average hitting team this season, batting just .236, but they have been good at drawing walks and have the league’s 8th best on-base percentage.
Michael Busch and Cody Bellinger have been the Cubs’ top power threats this season, with Busch leading the team with six homers and Bellinger right behind him with five. Both players come into the game tied for the team lead in RBIs, with 17. Nico Hoerner has been a solid contact hitter for the Cubs, batting .272, but he has yet to go deep this season.
New York is hosting the Cubs today with an overall record of 15-15, and they are 5.5 games behind the Braves for the NL East lead. So far, they are 2-1 in divisional games. The Mets have dropped two straight games and are just 3-7 over their last 10.
At home, the Mets are 8-10 this season compared to 7-5 on the road. So far, they have dropped two straight series. As the underdog, New York has lost five straight games, and they are 6-7 overall as the underdog. The Mets’ record as the favorite is 9-8 this year.
When the Mets win, they tend to win big, with an average run margin of +3.5 runs per game. That has helped them to a 16-14 run line record on the season, including an 8-4 mark on the road. They have covered the run line in two straight games and are 8-5 against the run line as the underdog.
The Mets have been trending towards the under lately, with their last four games all going under the total. Their games have averaged 8.3 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 14-16. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, their record is 3-4. Overall, 53.3% of their games have had lower totals than 8.5 runs.
Adrian Houser is starting for the Mets, and he has taken a loss in each of his first 3 starts of the season. He has gone 4 1/3, 4, and 5 1/3 innings in his starts, and has given up a total of 6 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings of work. He has 23 strikeouts in those starts, but has given up 3 homers.
So far this season, the Mets offense has been better on the road (5.6 RPG) compared to at home (3.4 RPG). As a team, they are batting .237, which is 15th in the league, and are also 8th in home runs. New York’s team OPS of .684 is 17th in the league.
Starling Marte is hitting .278 for the season and has four homers, while Pete Alonso’s eight home runs are 3rd in the league. However, Alonso is batting just .228 for the season and only .200 over his last 10 games. Francisco Lindor has also struggled this season, hitting just .195.
With the Cubs being our predicted winner, we recommend taking them on the money line, with the payout sitting at -105. We actually have the Cubs winning this one 5-4, so there is some value in taking them to win straight up.
Looking at some potential player props, Ben Brown is projected to finish with four strikeouts, which would have him towards the bottom of today’s starters. As for Adrian Houser, he is projected to also finish with four K’s, and we have him going seven innings.
New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Betting Tips
- We like the Cubs on the moneyline (-105)
- The Cubs are also our pick on the spread at -1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Francisco Lindor | Questionable | Illness |
| Drew Smith | Out | Shoulder |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Shoulder |
| David Peterson | Out | Hip |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Francisco Alvarez | Out | Thumb |
| Tylor Megill | Out | Shoulder |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | Out | Hip |
| Cody Bellinger | Out | Ribs |
| Kyle Hendricks | Out | Back |
| Justin Steele | Out | Hamstring |
| Seiya Suzuki | Out | Oblique |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Back |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Forearm |
